UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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So from my understanding

Yair left JaxWink to get individualized attention to Chicago with Izzy Martinez who is a Jackson wrestling coach. Then he left Izzy because Izzy I presume (just my guess) tried to scale back his wild techniques in order to focus on the basics. As a result Yair didn't like that and he left to train under Mike Valle.

Sounds like a lot moving around. I got that from MMAhour.
 
Was yair with Jackson for Bruce Lee Roy fight? I can't remember sorry if already mentioned
 
Rebel_LioN said:
So from my understanding

Yair left JaxWink to get individualized attention to Chicago with Izzy Martinez who is a Jackson wrestling coach. Then he left Izzy because Izzy I presume (just my guess) tried to scale back his wild techniques in order to focus on the basics. As a result Yair didn't like that and he left to train under Mike Valle.

Sounds like a lot moving around. I got that from MMAhour.
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Interesting. Confidence increase O2.5 (?)
 
Agent Mulder said:
Interesting. Confidence increase O2.5 (?)
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Interpret it for whatever it's worth. Who knows what that'll mean I just wanted to throw that out there.

Anyways,

I think Penn needs to come into this trying to finish the fight early. Iono if anyone ever mentions this, but I've always thought BJ has always had the worst cardio. Even Greg the mastermind knew BJ had terrible cardio and had GSP work up his lactic acid before finishing him in the 4th round in their rematch. If you think about it, Fitch got a 10-8 in the 3rd cuz BJ is lifeless when he gets tired.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Interpret it for whatever it's worth. Who knows what that'll mean I just wanted to throw that out there.

Anyways,

I think Penn needs to come into this trying to finish the fight early. Iono if anyone ever mentions this, but I've always thought BJ has always had the worst cardio. Even Greg the mastermind knew BJ had terrible cardio and had GSP work up his lactic acid before finishing him in the 4th round in their rematch. If you think about it, Fitch got a 10-8 in the 3rd cuz BJ is lifeless when he gets tired.
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I agree. His cardio looked fine against Florian and Sanchez, but he was the better striker and wrestler those fights which allowed him to dictate the pace. When he fights high level guys he gasses because they force him to fight a pace he can't maintain.
 
Barkus said:
I agree. His cardio looked fine against Florian and Sanchez, but he was the better striker and wrestler those fights which allowed him to dictate the pace. When he fights high level guys he gasses because they force him to fight a pace he can't maintain.
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Exactly the times that he made it out late into the rounds were the times he was able to dictate the pace.

He's older now though, 38 it's hard to put any faith that he got any better in that aspect.

Still gonna play him as a big dog but I don't have any confidence the cardio aspect of his game if that becomes a factor. There's nothing more that I hate than a fighter who's "skilled" but gets outworked.

It either means they don't train hard enough or has no heart. I've followed BJ's career for a long time and I've seen him have that exhausted look on his face embedded into my memory one too many times lol.

With that said, he'd better set the tone early if he wants the W.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Exactly the times that he made it out late into the rounds were the times he was able to dictate the pace.

He's older now though, 38 it's hard to put any faith that he got any better in that aspect.

Still gonna play him as a big dog but I don't have any confidence the cardio aspect of his game if that becomes a factor. There's nothing more that I hate than a fighter who's "skilled" but gets outworked.

It either means they don't train hard enough or has no heart. I've followed BJ's career for a long time and I've seen him have that exhausted look on his face embedded into my memory one too many times lol.

With that said, he'd better set the tone early if he wants the W.
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The only reason Im playing this fight is because of the odds and my admiration for BJ, nothing more. I expect the UFC is feeding a big name to Yair but Yair is still raw. BJ can sneak a win here. +400 is way too good of a price where the dogs usually have won more than 45% in the past year. Anything can happen.
 
I got 2u on penn, i just think the odds are to juicy and that theres alot of value on the table for him. Obviously not confident since his last 2 performances but they were arguably against some incredibly tough opponents. Fingers crossed that he doesnt come out as the full on prancing standing up straight Penn and more of the fight against mcdonald. His fight against mcdonald was really one sided due to him fighting welterweight but his style of fighting was garbage against edgar,

Im debating on the Moraga Pettis fight, I am leaning more towards moraga since I doubt that they will be fighting on the ground and his stand up is pretty decent plus hes coming off a fight where he was way to gunshy and feel like he will learn from that and come out more aggressive (hopefully). I also think the fight should be closer in terms of odds and he is listed as the underdog by a slight margin

only bet im fairly confident on is Lauzon,
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Interpret it for whatever it's worth. Who knows what that'll mean I just wanted to throw that out there.

Anyways,

I think Penn needs to come into this trying to finish the fight early. Iono if anyone ever mentions this, but I've always thought BJ has always had the worst cardio. Even Greg the mastermind knew BJ had terrible cardio and had GSP work up his lactic acid before finishing him in the 4th round in their rematch. If you think about it, Fitch got a 10-8 in the 3rd cuz BJ is lifeless when he gets tired.
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I agree Penn's primary way to win is early. Having said that his r1 and r2 props are both over +1000. I will probably just play those cuz I don't really give him credit to win a decision. After r2 (if it goes that far) Penn will be done.
 
Shoulder said:
So I guess we will all be balls deep in Nina. God damnit, when do we ever learn not to bet WMMA fighter below top three?

Adding 1U, in 2U on Nina now.
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You said it bro. Something about these female fighters that makes you guys unload your units quicker than Brandon Thatch gets caught in a triangle. They'll keep burning you, just like they do in real life lol.
 
Hey! I've been sick for a few days (a cold 1 day after Cruz lose :() and I've only been able to read half the thread, for now my 3 bets.

Smoliakov Asker o1.5 +100
Harris ML -125 small
Ansaroff ML -125 small

I like the over but not very confident with low level HW. I just heard Hemminger from MMAodsbreaker saying Asker has good striking defense, It's so ridiculous what he said that makes me doubt, what do you think? (serious question)

I'm not sure if I can see Penn destroyed again. He's my favourite fighter of all time.
And one of the fighters that hooked me to the sport without a doubt. I will bet on him possibly but win or lose I hope he comes well prepared and gives a good fight.

I was thinking to use Klose as pfodder, He is training with MMAlab and should be well prepared for this fight despite short notice, Powell is terrible imo from what I seen. More confident after reading your thoughts Sham, I capped Klose -250 and I think I'm being generous with Powell. Do you think Klose has value at these odds? I don't like these odds with 2 newcomers but Powell style won't work against anybody decent.
 
I like the odds on Saenz, not sure why he isn't a huge favorite. Tanquino's wrestling hasn't really impressed me and I've seen nothing that leads me to believe he can take Saenz down. If he doesn't, he's screwed. Faber barely got the better of Saenz in the wrestling/clinch, I don't see Mendes really having success with anything in this fight.

Also small on Nina. She's a sharper striker, but has a penchant for getting robbed on the scorecards.
 
After reading some of the discussion on Sherman/Walt I watched Walt vs Shamil and Sherman vs Ledet. Walt could definitely benefit from throwing more volume, but he landed some good shots and generally I think he got the best of it when they engaged (wasn't all that often), while also worrying about some takedowns from Shamil. He landed a clean left straight counter that would've put a lot of guys down, but Shamil has a beard on him. That fight could of went either way.

Ledet vs Sherman was a fun round one to watch, but Ledet repeatedly landed clean 1-2's. Sherman shows some good leg kicks and was aggressive, but really got boxed up and then obviously Sherman was gassed and was a punching bag in rds 2&3. Sherman moved his head, but didn't really seem to have much rhyme or reason to the movement and he didn't angle off or really move his feet much at all after throwing so his head was constantly on the centerline when ledet countered or jabbed. Ledet has much cleaner boxing and is significantly faster than Walt, but if Walt lands a couple of those shots that Ledet did I think its likely Sherman goes to sleep. He showed a great chin, but he also has been KO'd by a LHW in Alex Nicholson. I couldn't find that fight btw.

Overall I think its a pass, but slightly favor Walt by KO. Sherman could win a decision based on volume, but he is so hittable and will be much more willing to engage with Walt than Shamil was. My two cents..
 
Stunna77 said:
After reading some of the discussion on Sherman/Walt I watched Walt vs Shamil and Sherman vs Ledet. Walt could definitely benefit from throwing more volume, but he landed some good shots and generally I think he got the best of it when they engaged (wasn't all that often), while also worrying about some takedowns from Shamil. He landed a clean left straight counter that would've put a lot of guys down, but Shamil has a beard on him. That fight could of went either way.

Ledet vs Sherman was a fun round one to watch, but Ledet repeatedly landed clean 1-2's. Sherman shows some good leg kicks and was aggressive, but really got boxed up and then obviously Sherman was gassed and was a punching bag in rds 2&3. Sherman moved his head, but didn't really seem to have much rhyme or reason to the movement and he didn't angle off or really move his feet much at all after throwing so his head was constantly on the centerline when ledet countered or jabbed. Ledet has much cleaner boxing and is significantly faster than Walt, but if Walt lands a couple of those shots that Ledet did I think its likely Sherman goes to sleep. He showed a great chin, but he also has been KO'd by a LHW in Alex Nicholson. I couldn't find that fight btw.

Overall I think its a pass, but slightly favor Walt by KO. Sherman could win a decision based on volume, but he is so hittable and will be much more willing to engage with Walt than Shamil was. My two cents..
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he was rocked badly two times but looked liked he could have continued
 
Havent posted my plays in a while, got 7 units on Sergio, i think he's improving alot on his wrestling, to me his earlier losses were him just being way too green for the ufc, i can definitely see the improvement from him with each fight specially in his wrestling, Moraga was a guy who was hesistant vs Nicolau, if he doesnt bring him here he is gonna lose badly he's also on 16 days notice.

1 unit on Held, Lauzon's striking is horrid, he got lucky vs diego and the wheels can fall off anytime now, i think Held gassed badly due to the alittude and it will be a different fighter now.
 
I see a lot of nostalgia based BJ Penn betting. We all know in our hearts though that BJ is going to look terrible and get absolutely dominated and probably stopped, right?
 
Polarize said:
Hey! I've been sick for a few days (a cold 1 day after Cruz lose :() and I've only been able to read half the thread, for now my 3 bets.

Smoliakov Asker o1.5 +100
Harris ML -125 small
Ansaroff ML -125 small

I like the over but not very confident with low level HW. I just heard Hemminger from MMAodsbreaker saying Asker has good striking defense, It's so ridiculous what he said that makes me doubt, what do you think? (serious question)

I'm not sure if I can see Penn destroyed again. He's my favourite fighter of all time.
And one of the fighters that hooked me to the sport without a doubt. I will bet on him possibly but win or lose I hope he comes well prepared and gives a good fight.

I was thinking to use Klose as pfodder, He is training with MMAlab and should be well prepared for this fight despite short notice, Powell is terrible imo from what I seen. More confident after reading your thoughts Sham, I capped Klose -250 and I think I'm being generous with Powell. Do you think Klose has value at these odds? I don't like these odds with 2 newcomers but Powell style won't work against anybody decent.
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I dont normally bet on or against debuting ufc fighters as it can be hard to guage their level of opponents and they often up their game in the ufc. But powell is terrible and klose looks solid enough. Powell has fought utter trash except marcellino and he clearly lost that fight. Klose has fought solid enough comp in his last three fights, and has struggled to find people willing to fight him. He is the better striker and wrestler by far. I have to bet against a guy in 2017 whose only hope is a submission from being taken down. Hell, against anyone with any semblance of a ground game he has shown an inability to finish sub attempts.
 
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