UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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Rivera. “I found out Monday Caraway was out,” Rivera told MMAFighting.com’s Ariel Helwani.

“Didn’t find anyone new until Thursday. My coach and I discussed that it wouldn't be a fair fight for the guy. I’m not bullying some guy who wins some and loses some. I want to fight the best of the best. I trained for Caraway, so either I wait for him to get better or fight someone at the very top of the weight class.”

When asked why he accepted the fight and then changed his mind overnight, Rivera said that it was because wasn’t being realistic. “That was me thinking as a fighter and not being realistic,” Rivera explained. “I've always got fights that no one wanted. First fight was late-notice fight, knock the guy out [Marcus Brimage]. Next was a Brazilian in Brazil, beat him [Pedro Munhoz]. Next was Yuri [Alcantara] who know one wanted to fight, beat him. Then, [Urijah] Faber and beat him toe-to-toe. I trained two and half months for Caraway. Two weeks out he says he got hurt.

“All I ask, if it's going to be replacement, give me someone who's going to benefit me. If I fight Vera, it makes me look like a bully and I teach my kids not to be a bully. Plus, he's got a daughter that he's trying to make money to get her surgery done. I got a heart man, I can't stand there and stop that.”

wtf he did not want Dodson (someone hwo would "benefit" him) then gets a sure win handed to him in Vera accepts it and changes his mind? lost a bit of respect for him and appreciate guys like Cowboy even more now
 
So Rivera stops money coming in for Veras daughters surgery and dodges the dodson bullet.....
 
Sham5916910 said:
I havent seen her groove in the ufc. Torres lit her up like a xmas tree and her and markos engaged in a sloppy even striking match.
Click to expand...

Watch her fight v Frausto. But yeah she hasnt looked good in ufc thus far.
 
Rivera is full of bs...dont buy any of those reasons. If u dont want to take a replacement guy with no notice fine. But these reasons are bull.

This is the fight game. Dont talk to me about some going ons in your opponents personal life... not buying it at all.
 
Ballsy if you were talking about Nina with a 5u play Sham. I'm rewatching her vs Kish right now and she is fucking horrible.
 
Nina v JJL is a coin toss with the coin favouring nina by a c hair.
 
Nina should edge it really but yeah been saying earlier this is wmma, not overly impressed with nina but less with Lybarger.

Tough card to pair some decent parlays with, but feels like the overs are better in many fights here.

Think ill try some over/decision props in parlays, maybe mixed with 1-2 su plays. A lotto ticket with some heavies maybe worth it too, rest live bet the freaking lot.
 
vkram said:
Repost from before Asker made his UFC debut.

Was doing some digging on Asker, this is what I found:

Weird finish...


Mistakenly recorded as 1st round finish on Sherdog. Some nasty GnP.


EFC debut, striking doesn't look great.



Most of his finishes seem to be on the ground despite having a boxing background, he has an aggressive ground game - always looking for a dominant position (purple belt in BJJ).

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/2/9...-vs-taisumov-heavyweight-cyril-asker-mma-news
Click to expand...


I like asker but only if he gets out of r1, dmirtry had all r1 finishes so I suspect his hw gas tank really is 5 minutes just like his last fight. If asker looks ok and not done by end of r1, gonna hammer live bet him :)
 
EzFlyer said:
Yea I actually like saenz -142. He's a damned good wrestler , which means this fight should stay standing. Think Mendes is pretty darn bad on the feet.
Click to expand...

I think I might be into this, even if I think Saenz has a fair few issues too.

Everyone says Mendes looks decent standing and I didn't want to say much since I know fuck all about striking, but I also thought he looked fairly bad with a questionable chin.
 
Man. Betting wise this card sucks. I'll be on some overs and Penn. maybe Saenz
 
Some of you guys are an inspiration and made me win some money, so I'll try to help others as well.
I decided to take and share some of my thoughts for 2017.

I choose my picks in a % way, and even if most of you don't really care, I can use these posts for myself haha

I'm not checking odds for choosing a fighter, only after doing all my maths to see what is worth . For example, a group 5 fighter ( you'll understand below ) may have really favored odds but if it is a tough fight for me, I can go with the underdog - even if he's not my choice.

I'll try to post my opinions after odds are released as well. I bet at bet365.


There are 5 groups - 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

1 are choices that have around 90% chance of winning
2 are choices with 80%
3 are choices with 70%
4 are choices with 60%
5 are choices with 51%

Methods are not included in this rule, but I'll try to put them anyway and some bonuses

For this: ( and waiting for Rivera's opponent )


3 - Yair Rodriguez - Dec or late rounds ( 3/4/5 )

I see that BJ Penn is one of the GOAT's but I think that Yair is very promising and talented. He may get into trouble but I truly believe he can overcome that with his athleticism and age. Training at Jackson/Wink is a plus for me. Method was chosen in a combination of BJ's amazing durability and his "old" age.

________________________________

5 - Held - Dec

I think that Held underperfomed a bit agaisnt Sanchez, maybe because the altitude was too high. The guy is talented and very technical. J-Lo is always a pleasure to watch, warrior thought and strenght and also good technique. Too tough to call.

________________________________

3 - McGee - Dec

McGee is very boring, but he is strong. Defeating Whittaker is a plus, even if it is not a recent win. I did not like his performance agaisnt Steele, but then again, I don't believe Saunders has the same power or strength. Saunders is a sherdog fella, but this is a tough matchup.

________________________________

4 - Moraga - Dec ( GTD )

Moraga has faced much better opponents and has done decently agaisnt them. Sergio is kinda overrated to me and has some ugly fights + a loss to Ryan Benoit. This should go to a decision, none of them are ultra explosive or take big risks.

________________________________

4 - Saenz - Dec

OK, I understand that most of you are over Saenz and for a good reason. He has some nice performances and wins, but Mendes has potential, should have great ground game and he KINDA put Garbrandt ( a good champion ) in bad/awkward situations. Not so sure.

________________________________

3 - Oleynik KO - R1/2

Oleynik is a good fighter for me, and he struggled with Omielanczuk in virtue of his age, bad matchup and the way the fight went. Pesta is a different fighter and shouldn't be able to hold Oleynik for too much. Pesta is also a bit overrated imo.

________________________________

4 - Martin - Dec

Tough one to call. Martin has good wins and only lost to great fighters - check out their records. Alex White is no slouch, but I didn't like his performance agaisnt Lobov and his best win is a guy filled with recent losses if I remember correctly.

________________________________

3 - Ansaroff - Dec

WMMA. I have not decided to abandon it yet but I'm close. Jocelyn is too bad for me, no technique, bad fighter all around. Ansaroff may have a bad record but she has some nice techniques standing/on the ground that should win her the fight early or get the first two rounds. Momentum is on her side too, being fed with that lioness champion honey

________________________________

5 - Klose - Dec

Who da fook are those guys? Weird fight but the second guy won a fight at RFA and I kinda respect it.
Powell has one loss and one split decision when he went to an above average event ( WSOF )

________________________________

4 - Harris - R1/2 ( ITD )

Sherman might be a threat, he is young and it is a heavyweight fight but Harris is underrated and has faced some hard competition in all aspects.

________________________________

4 - ( EDIT ) Christensen ( Dec )

After a tip from @wack3d, I decided to check Mihajlovic's wins and some of his tapes as well. Damn. The guy doesn't even seem to be UFC material. Some really really bad opponents. Totally misleading record. I don't think Christensen is great, but Mihajlovic should be fighting someone like Ruan Potts.

________________________________

5 - Smoliakov - KO R1/2 ( ITD )

Toss up. Smoliakov hasn't been ko'ed yet, if that means anything. I don't believe Asker subs him. Smoliakov has a ton of R1 wins, which shows his power as well.
 
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I've been burnt betting WMMA time and time again. No longer.
 
Caicara said:
Some of you guys are an inspiration and made me win some money, so I'll try to help others as well.
I decided to take and share some of my thoughts for 2017.

I choose my picks in a % way, and even if most of you don't really care, I can use these posts for myself haha

I'm not checking odds for choosing a fighter, only after doing all my maths to see what is worth . For example, a group 5 fighter ( you'll understand below ) may have really favored odds but if it is a tough fight for me, I can go with the underdog - even if he's not my choice.

I'll try to post my opinions after odds are released as well. I bet at bet365.


There are 5 groups - 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5

1 are choices that have around 90% chance of winning
2 are choices with 80%
3 are choices with 70%
4 are choices with 60%
5 are choices with 51%

Methods are not included in this rule, but I'll try to put them anyway and some bonuses

For this: ( and waiting for Rivera's opponent )


3 - Yair Rodriguez - Dec or late rounds ( 3/4/5 )

I see that BJ Penn is one of the GOAT's but I think that Yair is very promising and talented. He may get into trouble but I truly believe he can overcome that with his athleticism and age. Training at Jackson/Wink is a plus for me. Method was chosen in a combination of BJ's amazing durability and his "old" age.

________________________________

3 - McGee - Dec

McGee is very boring, but he is strong. Defeating Whittaker is a plus, even if it is not a recent win. I did not like his performance agaisnt Steele, but then again, I don't believe Saunders has the same power or strength. Saunders is a sherdog fella, but this is a tough matchup.

________________________________

4 - Moraga - Dec ( GTD )

Moraga has faced much better opponents and has done decently agaisnt them. Sergio is kinda overrated to me and has some ugly fights + a loss to Ryan Benoit. This should go to a decision, none of them are ultra explosive or take big risks.

________________________________

4 - Saenz - Dec

OK, I understand that most of you are over Saenz and for a good reason. He has some nice performances and wins, but Mendes has potential, should have great ground game and he KINDA put Garbrandt ( a good champion ) in bad/awkward situations. Not so sure.

________________________________

3 - Oleynik KO - R1/2

Oleynik is a good fighter for me, and he struggled with Omielanczuk in virtue of his age, bad matchup and the way the fight went. Pesta is a different fighter and shouldn't be able to hold Oleynik for too much. Pesta is also a bit overrated imo.

________________________________

4 - Martin - Dec

Tough one to call. Martin has good wins and only lost to great fighters - check out their records. Alex White is no slouch, but I didn't like his performance agaisnt Lobov and his best win is a guy filled with recent losses if I remember correctly.

________________________________

3 - Ansaroff - Dec

WMMA. I have not decided to abandon it yet but I'm close. Jocelyn is too bad for me, no technique, bad fighter all around. Ansaroff may have a bad record but she has some nice techniques standing/on the ground that should win her the fight early or get the first two rounds. Momentum is on her side too, being fed with that lioness champion honey

________________________________

5 - Klose - Dec

Who da fook are those guys? Weird fight but the second guy won a fight at RFA and I kinda respect it.
Powell has one loss and one split decision when he went to an above average event ( WSOF )

________________________________

4 - Harris - R1/2 ( ITD )

Sherman might be a threat, he is young and it is a heavyweight fight but Harris is underrated and has faced some hard competition in all aspects.

________________________________

4 - Mihajlovic - Dec

This guy couldn't show his potential yet after fighting the Cameroon predator. He had a nice streak beforehand and he also has some decision wins - and his opponent some decision losses. I'm not sold on Christensen yet - Mihajlovic was undefeated for 9 years...

________________________________

5 - Smoliakov - KO R1/2 ( ITD )

Toss up. Smoliakov hasn't been ko'ed yet, if that means anything. I don't believe Asker subs him. Smoliakov has a ton of R1 wins, which shows his power as well.
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just a few notes:

its Penn hwo are training at Jacksons for the past year now.. not sure when Yair stopped training there

look at who Mihajlovic fought and you will see why he was undefeated (biggest can crusher ever) :D on the other hand Christensen has alot of solid wins on his record and maybe try watching some tape.. i dont think its possible you can pick or bet Mihajlovic after you watch tape :D
 
wack3d said:
just a few notes:

its Penn hwo are training at Jacksons for the past year now.. not sure when Yair stopped training there

look at who Mihajlovic fought and you will see why he was undefeated (biggest can crusher ever) :D on the other hand Christensen has alot of solid wins on his record and maybe try watching some tape.. i dont think its possible you can pick or bet Mihajlovic after you watch tape :D
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info. I will still put Yair in group 3, but it raises a flag.

I will watch some tape. It should be a group 5 fight for me then...I saw that Christensen has a split win over a 17-3 fighter IIRC, but a decision win over a 3-3 one? Dunno. Not confident in any of them really.
 
just been watching tape on pettis and moraga. i've cooled on pettis, now i am really at a loss. i do like this new kid klose though.
 
Caicara said:
Thanks for the info. I will still put Yair in group 3, but it raises a flag.

I will watch some tape. It should be a group 5 fight for me then...I saw that Christensen has a split win over a 17-3 fighter IIRC, but a decision win over a 3-3 one? Dunno. Not confident in any of them really.
Click to expand...

Christensen will never be top10 or anything but he is a solid fighter for sure.. he have a few really good wins:

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Max-Nunes-60957
http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stephan-Puetz-96817
http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jonas-Billstein-55146

Mihajlovic on the other hand dont have a win over anyone wih a winning record i think
 
wack3d said:
Christensen will never be top10 or anything but he is a solid fighter for sure.. he have a few really good wins:

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Max-Nunes-60957
http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Stephan-Puetz-96817
http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jonas-Billstein-55146

Mihajlovic on the other hand dont have a win over anyone wih a winning record i think
Click to expand...

Awesome. I'll take a look for a better opinion.

Lauzon vs Held is still happening right? I gotta analyze that too.
 
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