UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs Poirier II

What does Ross Pearson have to offer vs Makdessi? Makdessi's TDD is gonna make it a striking match. Don't see Ross consistently outboxing him to a decision and Makdessi ate Cerrones headkicks till his jaw was smashed so a finish is doubtful at best. At -150 seems an easy choice to make.
I’d really like to get makdessi at -150

Missed that.

I’m def not paying close to -200 for him

He looked pretty good in his last fight
 
Sadistics big win will inspire us all into doing the same and thus make the bookies a few extra $ this week LOL.
 
They're up now. A parlay of all those pays +120
Alexis could pull a sub off but I think kaitlyn is smart enough to avoid her ground game

The rest I think have a pretty high probability of hitting
 
Alexis could pull a sub off but I think kaitlyn is smart enough to avoid her ground game

The rest I think have a pretty high probability of hitting

Kaitlin is very competent on the ground and usually locks people up in her closed guard when she gets taken down.
 
Let me know your thoughts.

I have never been impressed with Morono and I think Jordan Mein has world class skills, but with energy and durability concerns.
camp concerns aswell
 
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Kaitlin is very competent on the ground and usually locks people up in her closed guard when she gets taken down.
Yea coming from Serra/longo her jiu jitsu should be solid
 
I ended up putting 1u on Chook/Davis FGTD + JJ/Tecia FGTD + Alvarez/Poirier FDNGTD @ +137

The Markos/Ansaroff one I still greatly favor to go the cards, but I like the other 3 lines better.
 
Ortiz juuust snuck out that decision against Pantoja. Not an impressive win, however Nicalau’s win over smolka was impressive. Thought I would play Ortiz at +180 but after watching that Smolka fight I think I’ll stay away from this one.

Watched tape on Ansaroff and Markos, no idea who's gonna win this fight, no bet, what a waste of time. (Ansaroff is actually not bad to watch) Markos is typical push against cage, shite takedown, lay and pray win on scorecard, Nina can't defend takedowns well, and Markos can't strike well. gonna be a split decision.

Half unit on Kajan Johnson +400, the fact Islam Makachev is -600 is laughable. 1 win over Gleison Tibau and he's juiced down to -600...

Waiting to go in on Poirier props, maybe tko or nsc, def rd 3,4,5. His fight against Gaejthe impressed the fuck out of me, he's one tough motherfucker, Poirier hits harder than Alvarez imo, has higher output, and Dustin was able to stuff all of Eddie's TD attempts except for one after their wild back and fourth exchange late in the second. I think Eddie struggles to implement his wrestling, he tends to resort to it only after getting hit hard on the feet, Dustin got way too over zealous trying to finish Eddie after he hurt him, that's when he got rocked. Dustin has been in two brawls since the eddie NC, Eddie was only in one, I think Dustin has improved more and will adjust better in the rematch. Might end up on his ML after money comes in on Eddie Alvarez.
 
i absolutely despise this card from a gambling perspective.
 
Its fuckin great for betting, many winners. Like I said earlier, dogs wont be barking this event so much ;)
Favorites in MMA are long-term unprofitable at just about every price point. Nature of the sport usually means there's no real sense in playing anybody beyond like -200. Just need one or two freak occurrences going against you to crater your returns with big favorites.
 
Favorites in MMA are long-term unprofitable at just about every price point. Nature of the sport usually means there's no real sense in playing anybody beyond like -200. Just need one or two freak occurrences going against you to crater your returns with big favorites.
I want to do a monster parlay.
 
Eddie, Aldo, JJ.

I really like Dustin as a fighter but he was done in the last fight even before the knees. Stephens has a good little run going, but not against anyone special. Aldo held his own the first two rounds against Holloway so he still has some fight in him. JJ wins because all the other girls are terrible.
 
Curious why you like Cutelaba.

I feel like one way or another he's going to do something dumb and get submitted

I have been eyeing Cutelaba in this one. At +120 he's worth looking into IMO. Grego-roman wrestling/Combat sambo background "should" help him out avoiding the takedowns. I still need to watch some tape, but I think that Cutelaba can avoid takedowns from the fence. This is a perfect hedge opportunity if you ask me. Anti SUB/Cutelaba TKO/KO/Cutelaba ML. Anti will gas in later rounds, should it get there, even more if he can't take Cutelaba down in the 1st. I still have some tape to watch, and im not sure if the line will close in or stay where it currently is.

Moronos biggest flaw is his improper breathing technique, breathing both in and out through his mouth. Something that's very hard to correct as it's subconscious. That combined with his constant hopping around and full power shots sees him gas pretty quick. Mein's leg kicks could add up quick too on a TKD guy that tries to be extremely light on his feet. I favour Mein but can't trust either guy, will be looking to lb Mein.

Solid point. Im very interested in playing Mein, and him being a underdog now, is a must play IMO. Morono usually avoids the ground since he love to strike, which won't help him in this one. He has a solid 1-2 combo that usually ends with a left hook if he's in the pocket. Showed some solid legkicks vs. Price as well. He showed a very active "feeling jab" vs. Nakamura in the 1st, but didn't use it all through the fight. Furthermore he got caught against the fence vs. Price and was willing to bang the last 10 seconds of R2, which ended with a Price KO. If Mein can cut Morono off, he will have the same chance of stopping him against the cage. This opens up for Meins hellbows as well. Nakamura had good success with bodykicks where Morono showed some weaknesses. Bodyshots is something that Mein utilizes really well. This will probably end up being a striking match, and with all the arguments above, I have to go with Mein even though he hasn't showed alot of motivation. If Nakamura was winning a striking battle against Morono, I don't see why Mein can't. Mein has fought much better competition as well.

I will probably put down a bigger bet on Mein ML @ +110

I would love to hear some arguments for Morono being a favorite here.

What does Ross Pearson have to offer vs Makdessi? Makdessi's TDD is gonna make it a striking match. Don't see Ross consistently outboxing him to a decision and Makdessi ate Cerrones headkicks till his jaw was smashed so a finish is doubtful at best. At -150 seems an easy choice to make.

Makdessi has awesome TDD. This will be a striking matchup for sure. Pearson could have some succes, but Makdessi has a great chin, solid footwork, good fight IQ, good awareness and a really good jab that mess up Pearsons ability to setup his combinations. Makdessi has 5.17 strikes landed/min, 3.75 absorbed/min and 71% defense. Pearson has 3.59 strikes landed/min, 3.80 absorbed/min and 63% defense.

I think that Makdessi will be the more busy fighter, landing more often than Pearson in a kickboxing matchup. Makdessi ML @ -150 is a really solid bet IMO.
 
Parlay

Gadzhimurad Antigulov vs Ion Cutelaba
Zwycięzca meczu: Gadzhimurad Antigulov
(1,66)

Dustin Ortiz vs Matheus Nicolau Pereira
Zwycięzca meczu: Matheus Nicolau Pereira
(1,38)

Jordan Mein vs Alex Morono
Zwycięzca meczu: Jordan Mein
(1,91)

Joanna Jędrzejczyk vs Tecia Torres
Zwycięzca meczu: Joanna Jędrzejczyk
(1,34)

Hakeem Dawodu vs Austin Arnett
Zwycięzca meczu: Hakeem Dawodu
(1,29)

John Makdessi vs Ross Pearson
Zwycięzca meczu: John Makdessi
(1,53)

Stawka całkowita: 150.00 pln
Podatek: 18.00 pln
Kurs całkowity: 11,57
Liczba zakładów: 1
Możliwa maksymalna wygrana: 1527.50 pln
 
I love Cutelaba but let's be real, he's a can crusher
He's gonna get smoked here

Kajan is in for a brutal beatdown aswell
 
I love Cutelaba but let's be real, he's a can crusher
He's gonna get smoked here

Kajan is in for a brutal beatdown aswell

Meanwhile...Antigulov has fought anyone decent? Ion has been in the with Misha giving him trouble for two rounds, that's when he was only 22. Also fought decent opposition in Cannonier and even Frankenstein might be better than anyone Antigulov has fought.
Antigulov is small for the weight class and he was struggling to take down Muslim Makhmudov not too long ago. Cutelaba is around 225-230.

I could see Antigulov winning, but "Cutelaba is a can crusher" is definitely not a good argument here.
 
I love Cutelaba but let's be real, he's a can crusher
He's gonna get smoked here

Kajan is in for a brutal beatdown aswell

I accept your opinion, but I don't agree with it. :)
Lets get some arguments instead. This is like saying "Kajan is bad, Islam isn't. Islam will win" It adds no value.

What makes him a can crusher? Fighting a competitive fight with one of the best LHW contenders, and giving him problems through two rounds? How would Antigulov do versus Misha?
 
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