UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs Poirier II

hit hernandez for 1u at +110. still a lot of question marks but i think he has a good matchup here.
 
Curious why you like Cutelaba.

I feel like one way or another he's going to do something dumb and get submitted

TBH I need to still do full tape but thought those odds shift fast. His striking is powerful and he has a greco roman background so in theory his defensive wrestling should be better than its shown in the past. If he stuffs takedowns he will spark him at some point and Antigulov gases from memory.
 
Let me know your thoughts.

I have never been impressed with Morono and I think Jordan Mein has world class skills, but with energy and durability concerns.

Moronos biggest flaw is his improper breathing technique, breathing both in and out through his mouth. Something that's very hard to correct as it's subconscious. That combined with his constant hopping around and full power shots sees him gas pretty quick. Mein's leg kicks could add up quick too on a TKD guy that tries to be extremely light on his feet. I favour Mein but can't trust either guy, will be looking to lb Mein.
 
Devin Powell is a favorite in a UFC fight. That's fascinating.

I almost always wait until after weigh ins to place bets, but I think theres value on Ortiz and Pearson at their current prices.
 
TBH I need to still do full tape but thought those odds shift fast. His striking is powerful and he has a greco roman background so in theory his defensive wrestling should be better than its shown in the past. If he stuffs takedowns he will spark him at some point and Antigulov gases from memory.

I don't think Cutelaba really hits that hard. Cannonier put his hands down in round 3 and let Cutelaba hit him bc he knew he could handle his power shots.

It's weird bc Ion has all of these super fast KO's on his record, but they are all against terrible fighters. Think it's just bc he's hyper aggressive and has OK enough power to murk cans quickly, but doesn't translate up to UFC competition.

Also wouldn't be surprised if Antigulov is better on foot. He is good at applying pressure and clinch fighting, and Cutelaba seems bothered by pressure. Cutelaba should be able to stuff takedowns, but if Antigulov gets him on the ground not sure he can survive > 30 secs without getting submitted.
 
Moronos biggest flaw is his improper breathing technique, breathing both in and out through his mouth. Something that's very hard to correct as it's subconscious. That combined with his constant hopping around and full power shots sees him gas pretty quick. Mein's leg kicks could add up quick too on a TKD guy that tries to be extremely light on his feet. I favour Mein but can't trust either guy, will be looking to lb Mein.

Why livebet Mein? Pretty sure he is the GOAT round 1 fighter and has never lost in round 1, not sure why he would start vs Morono.

Moreso than cardio I feel like he is mentally weak and tends to give up
 
Why livebet Mein? Pretty sure he is the GOAT round 1 fighter and has never lost in round 1, not sure why he would start vs Morono.

Moreso than cardio I feel like he is mentally weak and tends to give up

Yeah that's a good point, maybe I'll end up playing him small pre-fight, will see where the line settles
 
Watching some Torres tape today. Kinda see what you guys are saying about JJ being a bad matchup for her. She doesn't really have the elusive footwork or angles to threaten JJ and she's pretty open to be leg kicked imo. Andrade landed a few as Tiny was leaving the pocket and we've seen JJ hit leg kicks there. -300 though? No thanks. JJ DEC will likely be less juiced than her ML and I don't see JJ stopping Tecia barring a big cut or a broken nose from JJ's jab.
 
Antigulov at evens now, didn't expect that. Wanted to wait for Antigulov's SUB/ITD line, because this ain't going the distance but at evens I put some money down now.
 
What does Ross Pearson have to offer vs Makdessi? Makdessi's TDD is gonna make it a striking match. Don't see Ross consistently outboxing him to a decision and Makdessi ate Cerrones headkicks till his jaw was smashed so a finish is doubtful at best. At -150 seems an easy choice to make.
 
Devin Powell is a favorite in a UFC fight. That's fascinating.

I almost always wait until after weigh ins to place bets, but I think theres value on Ortiz and Pearson at their current prices.
ya never thought i would see Powell as a favorite in any kind of fight lol dont really remember much about Herrera but damn he must suck to be the underdog here =/
 
1 unit on torres +595 (betsafe madness)
I'm okay with losing that
 
Watching some Torres tape today. Kinda see what you guys are saying about JJ being a bad matchup for her. She doesn't really have the elusive footwork or angles to threaten JJ and she's pretty open to be leg kicked imo. Andrade landed a few as Tiny was leaving the pocket and we've seen JJ hit leg kicks there. -300 though? No thanks. JJ DEC will likely be less juiced than her ML and I don't see JJ stopping Tecia barring a big cut or a broken nose from JJ's jab.

Agree with your analysis.
 
Parlay:

All three wmma fights go the distance + Poirier/Alvarez fdngtd
 
I hope jj gets down below -200 so I can drop a bomb on her.

People were hammering Torres.

Dunno if they remember jjs last fight with rose.

Jj was taking over the end of that fight. Once she got over being tentative and started fighting her fight she was getting the better of rose.

She had a good weight cut as well and her cardio was much better going into the championship rds.

She ate some clean shots early in the fight and handled them fine.

I think the chin questions were answered. I think it had more to do with her terrible weight cuts than anything.

Torres has improved but her striking is not complete enough to compete with jj and she’s not taking her down
 
5D doesnt have those lines yet.

I'd expect all four of them to be chalkier than -250
Yes they do. Those are the only props that are up

And you are correct. They are all pushing or over -290

Sadistics has inspired me to start looking into parlays again

I actually parlayed those four lines for $50 to win 113

Added Aldo/Stevens gtd $100 to win $447

Pretty high risk for a five leg parlay, but I’ll take a shot.
 
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