UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs Poirier II

[Wiktoruspro]

I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be eating a slice of humble pie tonight

Who knows, maybe... but I believe in this kid that he will win. OAM is overrated

 

[mkess101]

And even though it was 10 years ago, Stephens coming back from down 2-0 to KO RDA says something about him. He is the only person to ever KO RDA outside of Eddie which has an asterisk bc of RDA's bad weight cut.

I'm not on Stephens either, but this is why I couldn't get on the Aldo train. Even if he is landing more volume, you always gotta sweat Jeremy landing the bomb. And if this is somehow close from a points perspective, Jeremy could steal a decision by rocking Aldo but not finishing him.

Aldo should be the slight fave IMO, but there are lots of things that can go wrong.

Yeah I see it the same. Aldo as a slight favorite makes sense. Personally, I like props better for this fight at + odds than ML's. While it's not totally crazy that Jeremy steals a dec or that Aldo finishes, I just see those as way less likely than Aldo dec or Jeremy finishing. I made a play on Aldo dec, and threw Jeremy itd into a couple RR's.

If Aldo is scoring well early and beating Jeremy to the punch and clearly wins rd 1, there could **potentially** be a nice opportunity to live bet Stephens at big + odds. Jeremy obviously doesn't apply the pressure that Max does, but he does move forward and stalk guys. If Aldo is winning but it looks like he's using at least some energy, the possibility of him tiring quickly has to be considered. He's at that age where it's at least possible that he only has 7-10 minutes of cardio if the fight has any sort of pace to it.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I really like Hernandez's skillset but as weighin pictures show (big size discrepancy), he should be fighting at featherweight not lightweight.

The size difference could impact any grappling exchanges and fighting against the cage. Watch Hernandez's fight against Jacob Capelli's fight. Mercier is also a lot more skilled than Capelli.

Hernandez looks like he is rapidly improving every fight to be fair though.

Do you have a link to that fight? I haven't found anything on Hernandez other than brief highlights of his last 2 fights

 

[edole]

Who knows, maybe... but I believe in this kid that he will win. OAM is overrated

OAM is not in the top 15 with a 7-2 record in the UFC.

Alexander Hernandez is ranked 13 at 1-0 in the UFC.

But yeah, OAM is the one here who is overrated.

 

[MT6ix]

Do you have a link to that fight? I haven't found anything on Hernandez other than brief highlights of his last 2 fights

Go to page 14 of this thread. Sadistics posted the full fight video of the fight for us Sherdoggers and a few other videos of Hernandez's.

 

[mkess101]

Come on. We were just talking about how we aren't getting big spats in here and having to wade through a bunch of posts just shit talking other people (and how nice it is).

I'm not a mod, people are gonna do what they want. But what is gained by calling people "idiot" and then replying with "fuck yourself"? In the heavies...I guess I (kinda) get it. But here, we are all trying to make $ and beat the books. We aren't gonna always agree obviously, but being civil doesn't cost a damn thing.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Come on. We were just talking about how we aren't getting big spats in here and having to wade through a bunch of posts just shit talking other people (and how nice it is).

I'm not a mod, people are gonna do what they want. But what is gained by calling people "idiot" and then replying with "fuck yourself"? In the heavies...I guess I (kinda) get it. But here, we are all trying to make $ and beat the books. We aren't gonna always agree obviously, but being civil doesn't cost a damn thing.

Lets get back on topic

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Go to page 14 of this thread. Sadistics posted the full fight video of the fight for us Sherdoggers and a few other videos of Hernandez's.

The size differential was always the biggest worry for Hernandez, but Capelli doesn't expose any weakness by pushing Hernandez against the fence for a few seconds.

OAM isn't as smothering as somebody like Makhachev...he has fights like the Ferreira one where he went 1/5 on takedowns. Got reversed by Tony Martin who is much bigger than Hernandez, but isn't a particularly good wrestler.

Hernandez is pretty ripped-- looks strong for his size. And with wrestling in his background, great athleticism, and that sweet suplex against Pecero, it's easy to see him holding his own vs OAM's wrestling and piecing him up on foot.

 

[mkess101]

The size differential was always the biggest worry for Hernandez, but Capelli doesn't expose any weakness by pushing Hernandez against the fence for a few seconds.

OAM isn't as smothering as somebody like Makhachev...he has fights like the Ferreira one where he went 1/5 on takedowns. Got reversed by Tony Martin who is much bigger than Hernandez, but isn't a particularly good wrestler.

Hernandez is pretty ripped-- looks strong for his size. And with wrestling in his background, great athleticism, and that sweet suplex against Pecero, it's easy to see him holding his own vs OAM's wrestling and piecing him up on foot.

OAM's striking has improved though. I don't know if it's improved enough necessarily to allow him to have success standing tonight, but it's WAY better than it was 2-3 years ago. It doesn't seem like he's made huge leaps between any 2 specific fights, but it's improved incrementally from fight to fight over the last few years. Obviously the Dunham fight didn't last long, but I think it's a mistake to think OAM just gets steamrolled in the standup tonight.

 

[Shoulder]

Aldo is now my biggest bet of all time, total 5,5 U. Will add more if i get him at even better odds. This is insane, I expected him to be 1.40.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

OAM's striking has improved though. I don't know if it's improved enough necessarily to allow him to have success standing tonight, but it's WAY better than it was 2-3 years ago. It doesn't seem like he's made huge leaps between any 2 specific fights, but it's improved incrementally from fight to fight over the last few years. Obviously the Dunham fight didn't last long, but I think it's a mistake to think OAM just gets steamrolled in the standup tonight.

I agree it has improved, but it still isn't dangerous IMO. He got lucky that Dunham's old body gave way, and Drew Dober is more hittable than he should be.

Hernandez has 1.5" reach advantage and a crazy speed advantage. OAM may land a few shots, but Hernandez should have a clear volume + power advantage.

Kinda think this is going to look like the Ferreira fight where Hernandez uses his athleticism to win scrambles on takedowns and solidly outstrikes him.

 

[Lightbringer]

Devin Powell is an absolute lock. He has a massive output, cardio, durability, and ground advantage here. He has to be worried about getting stung with a big punch for maybe 2
Minutes and then the cardio will make him cruise to an easy sub win or dominant decision. Please do yourselves a favor and take Powell moneyline and make some cash. This is as clear as they come.

 

[MT6ix]

The size differential was always the biggest worry for Hernandez, but Capelli doesn't expose any weakness by pushing Hernandez against the fence for a few seconds.

OAM isn't as smothering as somebody like Makhachev...he has fights like the Ferreira one where he went 1/5 on takedowns. Got reversed by Tony Martin who is much bigger than Hernandez, but isn't a particularly good wrestler.

Hernandez is pretty ripped-- looks strong for his size. And with wrestling in his background, great athleticism, and that sweet suplex against Pecero, it's easy to see him holding his own vs OAM's wrestling and piecing him up on foot.

I'm not debating who is the better striker, I wrote earlier in the thread that even though Mercier's striking has improved, Hernandez is the better striker, more power, faster and closes distance really fast. His striking is more advanced. What he did against Dariush was impressive because he did it from a southpaw stance which isn't his natural stance, guys when they fight from their unnatural stance, struggle for fluidity unless they are really seasoned.

Capelli though isn't UFC material and took him to a decision even though it was a clear decision for Hernandez but Mercier is top 15 UFC and even though Hernandez is good at reversing position, I need to see it against good UFC opposition. If Mercier survives Hernandez's initial blitzes and turns it into a grappling fight, size will play a factor hence the reason why there are weight classes. Mercier can grind him out if he doesn't knocked out. You can get away with being a weight class smaller in lower tier organizations but not many get away with it in the UFC especially in the long run.

I do like Hernandez's overall skillset, I just think he can make bigger waves at featherweight.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Hernandez sub +1265 is an underrated bet. OAM has had his back taken by Ferreira + Martin, and all of Hernandez career sub wins (2 pro, 1 amateur) are by RNC. Even though he is smaller, Hernandez could use his athleticism to win scrambles or rock OAM and finish with a choke.

 

[Mcgregorian]

Yeah I see it the same. Aldo as a slight favorite makes sense. Personally, I like props better for this fight at + odds than ML's. While it's not totally crazy that Jeremy steals a dec or that Aldo finishes, I just see those as way less likely than Aldo dec or Jeremy finishing. I made a play on Aldo dec, and threw Jeremy itd into a couple RR's.

If Aldo is scoring well early and beating Jeremy to the punch and clearly wins rd 1, there could **potentially** be a nice opportunity to live bet Stephens at big + odds. Jeremy obviously doesn't apply the pressure that Max does, but he does move forward and stalk guys. If Aldo is winning but it looks like he's using at least some energy, the possibility of him tiring quickly has to be considered. He's at that age where it's at least possible that he only has 7-10 minutes of cardio if the fight has any sort of pace to it.

Aldo is only 31...... he’s going to make a fool of Stephens in this fight. When its not going Stephens way he becomes the most predictable fighter in the UFC. I’m betting everything but the kitchen sink on Aldo later

 

[mkess101]

Aldo is only 31...... he’s going to make a fool of Stephens in this fight. When its not going Stephens way he becomes the most predictable fighter in the UFC. I’m betting everything but the kitchen sink on Aldo later

Sorry, when I say "age", I meant in "fight years". He's way older than 31 in terms of mileage. And he took serious punishment from Max 2 fights in a row leading up to this one. Add in that he's had way more injury issues through the years than most 31 year olds, and I think it's a mistake to believe we for sure see one of the better versions of Aldo tonight.

Things didn't go Jeremy's way in rd 1 vs Emmett, where Jeremy got clipped with a clean uppercut and dropped. But he recovered instantly and got back to work, finding the KO in rd 2. Emmett isn't Aldo from a skill perspective obviously, but again I just don't know for sure what version of Aldo we'll see.

All that said, I do still think Aldo dec is the most likely outcome. So it's not like I'm shitting on his chances here.

 

[Gugabe]

I feel odd about this card. Stephens/Aldo and Hernandez/OAM feel kinda coinflippy, but I feel like they'll both resolve in such a manner where the winner looks completely dominant and like he should have been a -400 ,but could see it going either way.

 

[mkess101]

I feel odd about this card. Stephens/Aldo and Hernandez/OAM feel kinda coinflippy, but I feel like they'll both resolve in such a manner where the winner looks completely dominant and like he should have been a -400 ,but could see it going either way.

IDK about the Hernandez/OAM fight. I think we could see a scramblefest where the scores are absolutely all over the place.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Aldo is now my biggest bet of all time, total 5,5 U. Will add more if i get him at even better odds. This is insane, I expected him to be 1.40.

I saw similar comments before Aldo Holloway 2. People seem to have a hard time seeing that Aldo is shot.

 

[ChaelSonnen]

Aldo via decision might be a safe bet. Just go back and watch Stephens' fight against Moicano. Moicano, being the so-called matador, basically stayed on the outside, picking Stephens apart with leg kicks. I think Aldo is gonna utilize the same gameplan.