UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs Poirier II

Really don't see why people are high on Stephens lately. 3 fight win streak against who? An already beat to death, ready to retire, Gilbert. Do Hoo Nobody? And Josh 'got one impressive knock out so I myst be the real deal' Emmet?

He loses decisions all of the time and he has lost to every big name fighter he has ever been in a fight with. His reputation as some huge knock out puncher is over rated too, he has some impressive looking KO's but they are far and few between.

Aldo and Stephens both lost to Holloway, but then Stephens also got beat down buy every other guy that Aldo put a beating on.
 
Dooze said:
What do you fellas think of Islam ITD @ 2.89?

Kajans success in the UFC baffles me a bit. He has a bit of power but doesn't really seem good at anything, he didn't ry do anything in the Martins fight until landing that big shot in the 3rd. Other than that I dunno if it's just a case of him fighting weak opposition for the reason he has a 4-1 record in the UFC.

My memory on Islam is a bit hazy, I don't remember him being a hugely aggressive fighter but if I recall he has solid grappling and should be able to take Kajan down at will.

He probably wins a dominating decision but I'm debating an ITD bet at nearly +200, I really don't rate Kajan.
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I'm putting a tiny play on Johnson KO @ +1400, since I think -600 is way too wide for a UFC bout. It's a no-play fight, otherwise, IMOO.
 
Hernandez RD1 @10.00 is insane, considering that 5 of his 6 finishes are in the first
 
Can't bet against a man as confident and strong-minded as Alexander Hernandez. Physical specimen as well. Going with him for the 1st round KO.
 
northsofia said:
Hernandez RD1 @10.00 is insane, considering that 5 of his 6 finishes are in the first
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Yeah. I'm favoring OAM to win, but I'm putting a little on his KO1 line & medium on the u2.5. I do think Hernandez' pace will create a 'kill or be killed' kinda scenario...

Or he ends up under OAM for a boring-ass 30-27, but that isn't too bad for me.
 
I have made way too many bets on this card. Just so many reads I am liking.

OAM for 2 units. Hernadez is way too unproven in a tough grinding, multi-faceted fight which is exactly what OAM provides. OAM has talked about the dangers he faces in the first round. I like his awareness and I think he has been improving a lot lately. This fight should not be near even money.

Makdessi for 3 units (when he was a 1.65). I think Ross has slown down more, has less tools striking to score points with and is facing an uphill battle with the judges. What isnt to like.

Antigulov for 2 units. Got this at a bad price, but hes a lazer focused grappler and I think he will immediately push Ion back to the cage and work to get it to the ground, negating Ion's first round power. Anti has rare choke strength, I am playing him by sub at 3.0 as well.

Johnson / Makachev over 2.5 rds 3 units. Kajan is so good at limiting his opp. opportunities. Makachev's striking isn't developed enough to break through that. I dont think Johnosn panics and turns his back or leaves his neck for a sub either so we will see this go the distance.

Other best.
Aldo, Poirer (5 units), JJ by dec.
Chookagian (sp?)
Markos
Mein and Mein 1st round at 10.0
 
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ApplesVild said:
Really don't see why people are high on Stephens lately. 3 fight win streak against who? An already beat to death, ready to retire, Gilbert. Do Hoo Nobody? And Josh 'got one impressive knock out so I myst be the real deal' Emmet?

He loses decisions all of the time and he has lost to every big name fighter he has ever been in a fight with. His reputation as some huge knock out puncher is over rated too, he has some impressive looking KO's but they are far and few between.

Aldo and Stephens both lost to Holloway, but then Stephens also got beat down buy every other guy that Aldo put a beating on.
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To play devil's advocate (and I am NOT on Jeremy here, I like Aldo by dec as the most likely outcome):

3 of Stephens last 5 wins are by pretty brutal stoppage. That's not "few and far between" when it comes to his power (at least lately). I don't think there is anyone at 145 that would argue that at WORST Jeremy doesn't have way above average power for the division. It was awhile ago, but remember he brutally KO'd a guy who was the LW champ and fought for the WW title in his last fight.

I do agree that Jeremy will give rounds away too often, stalking but simply not throwing enough (which is why I lean Aldo tonight). One thing Jeremy has improved a lot with over the years is his leg kicks. He throws them hard, untelegraphed, and often these days. It will be an interesting facet of this fight. The battle of the leg kicks. Aldo sort of abandoned them vs Max because Max has such great reach and timing that Aldo was getting stung with overhands whenever he threw them. But Jeremy doesn't have that in his skill set the way Max does, so I think we will see Aldo throwing them a lot more, like he used to do.

The big concern with Aldo of course is just how much he has left after the two pretty brutal beatings he took in his last 2 fights (this last one being worse as it was more prolonged). Fighters do age overnight, and a lot of times it's scenarios like this that push them over that cliff. Jeremy on the other hand hasn't sustained much damage at all lately. So while he's been around every bit as long as Aldo, the trajectory (purely from a damage taken standpoint if nothing else) is way different.

I think this fight ends Aldo dec or Stephens KO. I'd be pretty surprised (not shocked, but suprised) if it was any other outcome.
 
ApplesVild said:
Really don't see why people are high on Stephens lately.

He loses decisions all of the time and he has lost to every big name fighter he has ever been in a fight with.
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Are you forgetting about former P4P Contender, Renan Barao, who was in an eerily similar position as Aldo is currently, coming off 2 TKOs to the champ in his division?
 
Big line movement on Cutelaba/Antigulov

Probably because Ion looks like Schwarzenegger in '89
 
ApplesVild said:
Really don't see why people are high on Stephens lately. 3 fight win streak against who? An already beat to death, ready to retire, Gilbert. Do Hoo Nobody? And Josh 'got one impressive knock out so I myst be the real deal' Emmet?

He loses decisions all of the time and he has lost to every big name fighter he has ever been in a fight with. His reputation as some huge knock out puncher is over rated too, he has some impressive looking KO's but they are far and few between.

Aldo and Stephens both lost to Holloway, but then Stephens also got beat down buy every other guy that Aldo put a beating on.
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Stephens has finished 3 people in 7 years. He isnt going to ko aldo.

I guess stephens backers are forgetting how one dimensional and basic stephens is. Hes a slugger that never throws kicks or shoots takedowns.
 
played this parlay

Devin Powell
Jordan Mein
Alexander Hernandez
Nina Ansaroff

50 to win 460
 
Ham Socks said:
Stephens has finished 3 people in 7 years. He isnt going to ko aldo.

I guess stephens backers are forgetting how one dimensional and basic stephens is. Hes a slugger that never throws kicks or shoots takedowns.
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He never throws kicks? I'm on Aldo but Stephens used them to chop Melendez down.

Stephens has bad footwork, guys with good footwork and aren't stationary beat him like Moicano and Holloway who circle away and step out of range when Stephens stops and loads up to punch.
 
Ham Socks said:
Stephens has finished 3 people in 7 years. He isnt going to ko aldo.

I guess stephens backers are forgetting how one dimensional and basic stephens is. Hes a slugger that never throws kicks or shoots takedowns.
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Never throws kicks ? rewatch his fight with Gilbert lol
 
And this one mixed with ufc 227

Matheus Nicolau Pereira
Islam Makhachev
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Hakeem Dawodu
Renato Moicano
Marlon Vera
Ricardo Lucas Ramos

210 to win 1035
 
Ham Socks said:
Stephens has finished 3 people in 7 years. He isnt going to ko aldo.

I guess stephens backers are forgetting how one dimensional and basic stephens is. Hes a slugger that never throws kicks or shoots takedowns.
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All 3 of those finishes are within the last 3 years though LOL, and it's 3 of his last 5 wins. He throws a ton of leg kicks now too (depending on opponent and gameplan of his camp obviously).

He won't shoot a TD though, you are right about that. One thing Aldo most likely doesn't have to worry about and didn't train much for.
 
ChaelSonnen** said:
Can't bet against a man as confident and strong-minded as Alexander Hernandez. Physical specimen as well. Going with him for the 1st round KO.
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He is also crazy intelligent. I don't think his combination of IQ, athleticism, and well rounded skills can fail.
 
mkess101 said:
All 3 of those finishes are within the last 3 years though LOL, and it's 3 of his last 5 wins. He throws a ton of leg kicks now too (depending on opponent and gameplan of his camp obviously).

He won't shoot a TD though, you are right about that. One thing Aldo most likely doesn't have to worry about and didn't train much for.
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And even though it was 10 years ago, Stephens coming back from down 2-0 to KO RDA says something about him. He is the only person to ever KO RDA outside of Eddie which has an asterisk bc of RDA's bad weight cut.

I'm not on Stephens either, but this is why I couldn't get on the Aldo train. Even if he is landing more volume, you always gotta sweat Jeremy landing the bomb. And if this is somehow close from a points perspective, Jeremy could steal a decision by rocking Aldo but not finishing him.

Aldo should be the slight fave IMO, but there are lots of things that can go wrong.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
He is also crazy intelligent. I don't think his combination of IQ, athleticism, and well rounded skills can fail.
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I really like Hernandez's skillset but as weighin pictures show (big size discrepancy), he should be fighting at featherweight not lightweight.

The size difference could impact any grappling exchanges and fighting against the cage. Watch Hernandez's fight against Jacob Capelli. Mercier is also a lot more skilled than Capelli.

Hernandez looks like he is rapidly improving every fight to be fair though.
 
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I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be eating a slice of humble pie tonight
 
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