UFC on FOX 29 Poirier vs Gaethje

[Naught2Sixty]

http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-on-Fox-29-Poirier-vs-Gaethje-65327

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Having trouble picking a side on the ME. Leg kicks are big problem for DP and the nonstop pressure. Can DP hurt JG while constantly being walked down against the fence? FDNGD lines are juiced af. I might be on JG if he gets to be a bigger dog. Hard to be confident on either side for me. Very interested in a spot further down the card though.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Having trouble picking a side on the ME. Leg kicks are big problem for DP and the nonstop pressure. Can DP hurt JG while constantly being walked down against the fence? FDNGD lines are juiced af. I might be on JG if he gets to be a bigger dog. Hard to be confident on either side for me. Very interested in a spot further down the card though.

His chin is a concern, DP hits harder than Eddie

 

[Oblivian]

Man, this a great card. Not huge profile fights, but the matchups are interesting.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

How I see each fight ending cant wait for the odds to come up on all fights hopefully another winning event for me!!!!!!!!!

Perez-Dec
Burns-Ko2
WIlliams-ko2
Rainey-Dec
Wieczorek-Sub2
Okami-Dec
Muellar-Dec
Tavares-Dec
Moraga-Dec
Boetsch-Ko2
Casey-Sub2
Veterrori-SUb2
Oliveria-SUb2
Poirer-Ko3

 

[8oh5]

Liking Dustin and the over especially if it’s +odds.. will Be on waterson she facing Casey which is definitely a step down from what she’s been facing. Interested on what the odds will be on her. -160 or below I’ll be all over it. Going back and forth between cowboy and condit. Leaning condit

 

[OutRun]

Liking Dustin and the over especially if it’s +odds.. will Be on waterson she facing Casey which is definitely a step down from what she’s been facing. Interested on what the odds will be on her. -160 or below I’ll be all over it. Going back and forth between cowboy and condit. Leaning condit

She's a fan favorite, I feel like we'd be lucky to get her at anything below -200.

 

[mkess101]

Man, this a great card. Not huge profile fights, but the matchups are interesting.

Agree 100%.

A few fights that I will need to do a lot of study on if I bet them pre fight because I don't know (or don't remember) enough about one of both fighters.

But some really intriguing fights too. Boetsch/Shoeface, Tavares/Jotko, and Condit/BC are all really interesting fights imo. Others too, but those 3 plus of course the ME stick out at first glance.

I think people in the ME are underrating Dustin's wrestling and are thinking no way he can put Gaethje on his back. I've seen JG taken down multiple times in WSOF against worse wrestlers than Dustin. And while those guys weren't good enough to hold him down at all (and to be fair Justin is very good with get ups from what I remember), I think Dustin will be if he chooses to try to mix in TD's.

If the fight stays totally standing, IDK. It's Justin's chin and toughness vs Dustin's superior skill. Hard to say what happens. Justin will target that lead leg for sure, but inevitably will want to brawl most likely. Dustin will land hard punches on Justin's chin. The question will be how badly can he hurt him (and can he finish him) without catching something big in return on his own chin.

 

[t6p]

If the fight stays totally standing, IDK. It's Justin's chin and toughness vs Dustin's superior skill. Hard to say what happens. Justin will target that lead leg for sure, but inevitably will want to brawl most likely. Dustin will land hard punches on Justin's chin. The question will be how badly can he hurt him (and can he finish him) without catching something big in return on his own chin.

I’m not sure how much we can count on Gaethje’s chin anymore after how much damage he’s taken and Alvarez putting him away only a few months ago. DP is arguably the hardest hitter he’ll have faced as well.

Also, while DP can be chinny at times, Gaethje isn’t a really a one punch power threat. He typically breaks guys down over the course of a few rounds.

My big concern is obviously the leg kicks. But I’m on DP at +100 for 2u and very happy with that.

 

[mkess101]

I’m not sure how much we can count on Gaethje’s chin anymore after how much damage he’s taken and Alvarez putting him away only a few months ago. DP is arguably the hardest hitter he’ll have faced as well.

Also, while DP can be chinny at times, Gaethje isn’t a really a one punch power threat. He typically breaks guys down over the course of a few rounds.

My big concern is obviously the leg kicks. But I’m on DP at +100 for 2u and very happy with that.

Yeah it's hard to say when Justin's chin gives out. It will be soon, but is that this fight, next fight, 3 fights from now? Not sure. He took a lot of clean shots from Eddie before finally being put away. It's hard to pinpoint exactly when it will completely fail him.

DP's chin worries me a little. Not because Justin has huge one shot power, but because at even a hint of having a guy hurt he will go flat out ballistic looking for the finish. DP will have to recover QUICKLY if he gets stung. Justin gives zero fucks and will gladly risk gassing himself out if there's a chance he can finish a fight.

DP is the more skilled fighter, that much is clear. And I bet him (worse odds than you--I have him at -125). But there's some concerns for sure. He needs to fight a smart fight here. I really hope if Justin comes out looking to throw those hard leg kicks a lot that DP will counter by shooting for TD's. I've been impressed by his top game, and I think if he can put Justin on his back he can do serious damage with gnp.

 

[iGnP]

Yeah it's hard to say when Justin's chin gives out. It will be soon, but is that this fight, next fight, 3 fights from now? Not sure. He took a lot of clean shots from Eddie before finally being put away. It's hard to pinpoint exactly when it will completely fail him.

DP's chin worries me a little. Not because Justin has huge one shot power, but because at even a hint of having a guy hurt he will go flat out ballistic looking for the finish. DP will have to recover QUICKLY if he gets stung. Justin gives zero fucks and will gladly risk gassing himself out if there's a chance he can finish a fight.

DP is the more skilled fighter, that much is clear. And I bet him (worse odds than you--I have him at -125). But there's some concerns for sure. He needs to fight a smart fight here. I really hope if Justin comes out looking to throw those hard leg kicks a lot that DP will counter by shooting for TD's. I've been impressed by his top game, and I think if he can put Justin on his back he can do serious damage with gnp.

I dont see the love for DP. He's another guy that has zero defense and a not so wonderful chin. I also think that when he's pressured, he tends to throw everything out the window and he just brawls. If that's how the fights going to play out, I'd gladly take the more durable JG at dog odds

 

[t6p]

I dont see the love for DP. He's another guy that has zero defense and a not so wonderful chin. I also think that when he's pressured, he tends to throw everything out the window and he just brawls. If that's how the fights going to play out, I'd gladly take the more durable JG at dog odds

I don’t disagree. But no concern about Gaethje getting stopped for the first time and getting wobbled badly twice the fight before that?

IMO, if Dustin hurts Gaethje the way MJ was able to, there’s a strong chance he puts him away. I also think has Dustin the cardio advantage here.

 

[iGnP]

I don’t disagree. But no concern about Gaethje getting stopped for the first time and getting wobbled badly twice the fight before that?

IMO, if Dustin hurts Gaethje the way MJ was able to, there’s a strong chance he puts him away. I also think has Dustin the cardio advantage here.

Let me rewatch MJ/JG before commenting

 

[edole]

I don't think Poirier or JG are very durable. There is a very good chance this one ends in a KO inside 2 rounds imo -- both guys take and dish out a ton of damage in their fights.

 

[edole]

Thoughts on Condit vs Oliveira?

Condit 2-6 in his last 8.

I think Oliveira can get TDs here.

 

[Naterade]

Thoughts on Condit vs Oliveira?

Condit 2-6 in his last 8.

I think Oliveira can get TDs here.

Olivera is going to be on him like a sweater, terrible matchup for Condit

 

[iGnP]

I don’t disagree. But no concern about Gaethje getting stopped for the first time and getting wobbled badly twice the fight before that?

IMO, if Dustin hurts Gaethje the way MJ was able to, there’s a strong chance he puts him away. I also think has Dustin the cardio advantage here.

bleh, JG got hurt a lot in the MJ fight. I forgot about that. He was on his way to losing that fight if MJ hadn't gassed. good call. not sure how i intend on betting now, i still feel the same way about DP

 

[mkess101]

I dont see the love for DP. He's another guy that has zero defense and a not so wonderful chin. I also think that when he's pressured, he tends to throw everything out the window and he just brawls. If that's how the fights going to play out, I'd gladly take the more durable JG at dog odds

To me, it's his grappling that has elevated his game. Duffy isn't a bad grappler, and the way DP laid waste to him opened my eyes a bit. That said, Duffy isn't a worldbeater and was overrated at the time, so I sort of put that performace aside as not being super meaningful. But Pettis does have a tricky guard game, and is very good at attacking off his back with good enough timing to thwart real offense against him on the mat. The way Dustin just cut through his guard, advanced position, and completely dominated the grappling really was impressive. And then to do huge damage and end up finishing (yes, Pettis got injured with his rib or whatever but Dustin was smashing him right up to that point).

If it was a given this would stay on the feet the entire time, I'd probably just pass. Because like I said, then it's just Dustin with a bit better precision and power vs Justin with a (at least historically) better chin and better leg kicks. Essentially just a coin toss. But I'm nowhere near convinced that Dustin won't try (and have success) grappling, which I think can be the difference in this fight. He's shown lately that at times, that's the part of his game he prefers to go to as his first option.

 

[mkess101]

Thoughts on Condit vs Oliveira?

Condit 2-6 in his last 8.

I think Oliveira can get TDs here.

I have been a fan of NBK forever, since his WEC days. Always loved him as a fighter.

I think his fight with Lawler started his decline. Fights like that aren't good for the long term prospects of guys that go through them. It wasn't quite as brutally violent as Lawler/Rory II, but it was still quite a war. And Condit had already been around a long time and had logged a ton of fight miles.

Condit has always had shit TDD, and Brazilian Cowboy has improved his offensive wrestling a ton. So yeah, I think he can get TD's. The question is, once on the mat can he handle Condit's submission game? Condit is slick off his back, and Cerrone showed that BC can get himself in bad spots quickly.

 

[molest]

I think i goofed by betting Gaethje, i just thought the odds wouldnt last like with Rose vs JJ but now i see every casual is picking him, so obviously sharp money is on Porier.
After reviewing some tape this is a 50/50 fight, no way Dustin pulls an Eddie and fights outside he's going to brawl but he brawls almost as good as Justin, whoever lands first will win.