UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

[Sadistics]

Re: Hill/Moroz 2

Watched some tape on Hill since I scrolled through here and saw potential cardio concerns for her. I am not really seeing it, or at least anything to be concerned about. She went 5 rounds back to back in Invicta but I focused on the bouts with Ansaroff and Andrade. Now the Andrade fight is just what happens when you take so much damage and abuse - to me that's less to do with gassing and more to just taking a beating. Think Franklin vs Anderson 1 and the sheer abuse that an Iron Man like Ace took. He looked like he fought for 20 rounds after 20 seconds inside of Anderson's clinch.

The Ansaroff bout did show a slowdown in Hill's output after R1, but she still went strike for strike with a very underrated and technical fighter in Ansaroff (I would pick her over MM as well). Her numbers prove that. Check this out. Even though Hill only has one more UFC bout than Moroz (6 fights and 16 rounds vs 5 and 13), Hill has scored 389 strikes vs Moroz' 157. That's nuts.

Her style is taxing the way she's constantly jumping around but she doesn't slow too bad. It was most noticeable against Ansaroff but I think the many leg kicks played a part in that. Moroz doesn't really push a pace and only has hands; even if Hill does slow Moroz doesn't seem like she has the skills or IQ to take advantage

 

[Gugabe]

Why's Alvey +210? Is the dude he's fighting particularly rated?

 

[Sadistics]

Why's Alvey +210? Is the dude he's fighting particularly rated?

Alvey is moving up to LHW on short notice. Prachnio is a Kyokushinkai Karate BB going 400-51 in the sport. In MMA he's quite wild throwing full power bombs with every strike. Poor TDD but decent getups. 10 1st round KOs against monsters for the most part. Cardio looked terrible in early fights but held up well in his most recent 3 rounder. The line is wide but I'm not betting Alvey.

 

[piglord]

russell doane's takedown defence?

 

[Sadistics]

russell doane's takedown defence?

He's alright at defending the initial shot but if you chain TDs together he often ends up giving his back.

 

[mkess101]

Alvey is moving up to LHW on short notice. Prachnio is a Kyokushinkai Karate BB going 400-51 in the sport. In MMA he's quite wild throwing full power bombs with every strike. Poor TDD but decent getups. 10 1st round KOs against monsters for the most part. Cardio looked terrible in early fights but held up well in his most recent 3 rounder. The line is wide but I'm not betting Alvey.

I hate that we don't get o/u lines right away now. This fight specifically is the one I've been waiting to see it for.

 

[mkess101]

Took Burns +170, Perez -120, and Morales +260. Other than 4u Hill -114 it's gonna be a small card for me.

Burns now +110. Lame. Gonna wait and hope OAM gets bet from this spot.

 

[Tony J]

Her style is taxing the way she's constantly jumping around but she doesn't slow too bad. It was most noticeable against Ansaroff but I think the many leg kicks played a part in that. Moroz doesn't really push a pace and only has hands; even if Hill does slow Moroz doesn't seem like she has the skills or IQ to take advantage

Agreed. It's also like someone else said in this thread on another fighter - I feel like Hill will fight for your money. Near the end when Ansaroff would trip Hill to the ground, Hill was clearly exhausted and could have flopped on her back. Instead she stood up and gutted out the round.

 

[edole]

Yahya wins rd 1

Doane wins 2 and 3

Live bettable!

 

[mkess101]

Yahya wins rd 1

Doane wins 2 and 3

Live bettable!

Yep thinking same thing. Except that Yahya may get Doane's back and sub him in rd 1.

 

[Card]

https://www.sportsjournal.ae/rani-y...with-a-win-over-russell-doane-at-ufc-orlando/

Following his loss to Joe Soto just under a year ago, Yahya decided to make the move to the prestigious American Top Team. A talent stacked gym, Yahya has been putting some work in with the likes of Kyoji Horiguchi and Renan Barao.

“I decided to train there a year ago,” Yahya said. “I visited there before and I really liked it. Last year after my fight in Fortaleza, I decided to go train there and I liked the coaches. I decided I was going to represent their team. Dan Lambert is my manager now so everything is going to be good for me.”

“The fact there are a lot of Brazilians makes me feel like I’m at home,” Yahya said. “It’s very helpful.”

“I can also strike, I have an excellent striking coach,” Yahya said. “Many people don’t know but I’ve been training in Muay-Thai and boxing for a long time so I can surprise people.”

“I keep my roots and this is one of things I’m working really hard on at American Top Team. It’s no surprise that I want to take the fight to the ground. They’ve been working with me on ways how to do that.”

 

[Card]

Short Notice:
- Eric Shelton vs. Alex Perez [announced 2 weeks ago]
- Albert Morales vs. Manny Bermudez [announced 2 weeks ago]
- Angela Hill [announced 3 weeks ago] Maryna Moroz was supposed to fight Jamie Moyle mid-Jan
- Josh Emmett vs. Jeremy Stephens [announced 4 weeks ago]
- Ilir Latifi was injured for UFC on FOX 27 (mid-Jan) [4 weeks ago]
- Rani Yahya vs. Russell Doane [announced 4 weeks ago]
- Sam Alvey (in for Jake Collier) vs. Marcin Prachnio [5 weeks ago]
- Marion Reneau (in for Yana Kunitskaya) vs. Sara McMann [5 weeks ago] Reneau was training for Tonya Evinger Feb 18
- Mike Perry vs. Max Griffin [announced 5 weeks ago]
- Renan Barao vs. Brian Kelleher [announced 5 weeks ago]

Ring Rust:
- Ben Saunders 267 days
- Russell Doane 247 days
- Maryna Moroz 239 days

Returning from TKO loss:
- Alan Jouban TKOed by Price in Aug
- Ben Saunders TKOed by Sobotta in May

Extra:
- Rani Yahya was injured in Dec (against Aljamain Sterling)

 

[Gugabe]

I can find a tweet on Alvey-Prachino from the 9th of January. Pretty sure it's more than 5 weeks

 

[michi972]

Undercard lines came out for UFC on Fox 28 this Saturday. Big early line movement on some of them. Olivier Aubin-Mercier went from a slight underdog at -105 to a heavy favorite at -195 with the comeback on Gilbert Burns now at +155. I think there's value in world BJJ champion Burns who only has two losses in his MMA career at this number or higher against a submission artist like OAM.

Imo Burns is better striker and he's better on the mat. @EzFlyer are you on Burns?

 

[Yotsuya]

So Burns has gotten over his stand-up hang-ups by training with Henry Hooft. I wonder how that works against OAM. I see the Canadian getting under that latin macho skin a bit making him too aggressive and somewhat easy to be controlled with takedowns. Kind of risky against BJJ champ, but I hope Olivier has worked on his sub defence a lot after that close call against Martin. OAM 1u @ 1.8.

 

[Card]

Anyone know the nature of Ilir Latifi's injury last month?

 

[Karmello]

Man I like Jouban here and normally if the odds where a bit closer as I think they should be, I would bet Jouban for sure. But for me at 3.0 (+200) the odds justify taking a little stab at Saunders. I think it's going to be much closer than the odds suggest.

So a half unit on the Killa B it is!

 

[Card]

Guys from Florida:
- Ovince St-Preux (born in Florida)
- Ilir-Latifi (trained in Miami)
- Mike Perry (trains in Orlando)
- Renan Barao (trains at ATT)
- Ben Saunders
- Gilbert Burns (trains in Florida)
- Rani Yahya (trains at ATT)

 

[BatBoyJG]

OAM is not disciplined/focused enough to beat Burns. OAM took advanatage of Martin in his last fight who while talented and offensively gifted doesn’t have a consistent output in any facet of his game that always threatens. Even then OAM found himself in trouble on the ground.

What Burns lacks on the feet in setups & “connective tissue” as some call it, he does not lack it in his ground game making that skill of his elite. OAM I don’t think can control Burns on the ground & I see Burns having lots of opportunities to make him pay. We also saw some improvements in Burns game against Saggo where he did begin to throw combos and find the holes where his strikes could connect more cleanly. OAM I feel has struggled on the feet with every fighter he has faced even going back to Tony Sims.

Burns at +170 was unreal, and I favor him outright. I did 1u at +110 at the first go around but am now adding another 2u after looking at it more.

Fade or follow

 

[Oblivian]

Burns was the line I was waiting on for this event. I cannot believe he is the underdog here. This will likely look like OAM vs. Ferreira with a good chance of a finish for Burns. OAM's main route to victory here would be a close decision. I think Burns can take a clear cut decision, close decision, or get the finish.