UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

[NorthernLights]

Barao has been with ATT since around october last year...any thoughts on how this could affect his performance?

 

[Gugabe]

Barao has been with ATT since around october last year...any thoughts on how this could affect his performance?

Barao's chief issue is NU cardio. If he fixed that he's back to fringe top 5 BW IMO.

 

[piglord]

Barao's chief issue is NU cardio. If he fixed that he's back to fringe top 5 BW IMO.

that's not an easy fix given that he has to adopt a more cardio taxing style in order to be less stationary/hittable. he's lost every third round recently, including against nover who is levels beneath him.

he's clearly having problems making weight, i'd say accepting being smaller and working on his cardio would be the path for him to sustain his career - not dropping down to 135 again. remember this guy has been fighting pro since 17, he's got a fucking tonne of mileage for a 30 year old. perhaps he could roll back the clock but kelleher is the right side here at +130.

 

[Caicara]

that's not an easy fix given that he has to adopt a more cardio taxing style in order to be less stationary/hittable. he's lost every third round recently, including against nover who is levels beneath him.

he's clearly having problems making weight, i'd say accepting being smaller and working on his cardio would be the path for him to sustain his career - not dropping down to 135 again. remember this guy has been fighting pro since 17, he's got a fucking tonne of mileage for a 30 year old. perhaps he could roll back the clock but kelleher is the right side here at +130.

I believe it is up to striking. Barão TDD was always on point. I favor him in a striking battle, but not a lot...I hope to get him at close to evens

 

[Soccer Steve]

Now is the time? Man, I gotta disagree. He's only a slight favorite over a guy that's similar to him in most ways but not better really anywhere. Stephens has faced better competition by far and has more experience too.

If Josh was +180 or +200 that's a different story. He CAN win this fight. But basically getting paid even $ on him? No way, not for me. Stephens should be a bit more of a favorite imo.

Edit: you are getting +135 on Josh so I shouldn't have said it's basically just even $. Still, I favor Jeremy more than that.

I've never been great at articulating why I pick a side and, for instance, I was a big proponent of Romero and Cerrone but wasn't very vocal about them on here. I'll give it a go now:

Stephens has faced much more competition, no doubt. And to the better competition he normally loses: Frankie, Max, Cub, Cerrone, prime Pettis. Now, he recently beat a shattered Barao, Gilbert's shadow and an overhyped child who the UFC saw fit, for whatever reason (impending military absence?) to feed to the wolves very quickly. He reacted to both his 2017 wins like he'd just won the lottery, heart on his sleeve. But I'm not really impressed. At this point we know exactly what he's bringing. He's game and willing to fight but isn't really all that good - winging wild throws in the midst of arguably low volume but has moderate to good killer instinct. In Stephens I see a flat arrow: thrilled to be a fighter for a living with wins being a cherry on top.

On the other side is a guy with an arrow up who just KO'd a very good fighter. He looked as quick as Lamas and whatever Lamas landed seemed to have no effect outwardly. Before that he did everything but finish Arantes (a 30-25?! lol). Prior to that his sole loss, a split to Green, was interesting. I can see how he lost...because Green tricked the judges. Honestly. Emmett pushed a frenetic pace, was the aggressor, went for it the whole fight, while Green hopped around, moved backwards at any confrontation, threw open finger jabs, complained about a non-existent low blow, and was boring as hell. I am not surprised Emmett is in a main event and Green is what? Where? Two recent decision losses before two close split wins. Could've easily been 0-4 in these. I digress.

Emmett has shown he can get hit but while his recovery is really fast it looks like very little actually hurts him - won his debut with a fractured finger. They're going to seem quite similar in their styles but Emmett will push the pace, make Stephens appear noticeably slower, and look absolutely the part in another name win.

 

[mkess101]

I've never been great at articulating why I pick a side and, for instance, I was a big proponent of Romero and Cerrone but wasn't very vocal about them on here. I'll give it a go now:

Stephens has faced much more competition, no doubt. And to the better competition he normally loses: Frankie, Max, Cub, Cerrone, prime Pettis. Now, he recently beat a shattered Barao, Gilbert's shadow and an overhyped child who the UFC saw fit, for whatever reason (impending military absence?) to feed to the wolves very quickly. He reacted to both his 2017 wins like he'd just won the lottery, heart on his sleeve. But I'm not really impressed. At this point we know exactly what he's bringing. He's game and willing to fight but isn't really all that good - winging wild throws in the midst of arguably low volume but has moderate to good killer instinct. In Stephens I see a flat arrow: thrilled to be a fighter for a living with wins being a cherry on top.

On the other side is a guy with an arrow up who just KO'd a very good fighter. He looked as quick as Lamas and whatever Lamas landed seemed to have no effect outwardly. Before that he did everything but finish Arantes (a 30-25?! lol). Prior to that his sole loss, a split to Green, was interesting. I can see how he lost...because Green tricked the judges. Honestly. Emmett pushed a frenetic pace, was the aggressor, went for it the whole fight, while Green hopped around, moved backwards at any confrontation, threw open finger jabs, complained about a non-existent low blow, and was boring as hell. I am not surprised Emmett is in a main event and Green is what? Where? Two recent decision losses before two close split wins. Could've easily been 0-4 in these. I digress.

Emmett has shown he can get hit but while his recovery is really fast it looks like very little actually hurts him - won his debut with a fractured finger. They're going to seem quite similar in their styles but Emmett will push the pace, make Stephens appear noticeably slower, and look absolutely the part in another name win.

I don't disagree that Emmett's star is probably rising, he's looked better lately for sure (his last 2 fights). I was completely underwhelmed by his first 3 UFC fights honestly. There wasn't much he did that was impressive there. I don't think Arrantes is very good either, although Josh mopped the floor with him so it's not like I'm criticizing his performance. The bomb he landed on Lamas was impressive, but for me it's hard to put a ton of stock in a one punch KO unless it becomes a pattern where you can say "That guy has scary power". Josh landed a perfectly placed, perfectly timed punch flush and KO'd a really good fighter. Josh deserves credit for sure, but the takeaway for me is still...I don't know.

The guys you listed that have beaten Stephens would all smoke Josh imo. And remember that Stephens gave Frankie everything he wanted and even had him a bit wobbled in round 3 of that fight. Stephens has showed his power carries deep into fights. Josh looked horribly gassed late in the Holtzmann fight. Seems like he's mostly fixed that (like you said, the Green fight showing it), but he's not hurting guys later in fights that I've seen. And remember Stephens hasn't lost to every top guy. He flatlined RDA in that fight.

The other thing Jeremy does so much better than Josh is throw hard, untelegraphed leg kicks. Could end up making a big difference in this fight.

In the end, I'll pay a little juice on the guy who's been in a lot of elite guys and hung in there, competing well and looking the part. If Stephens was -240 we wouldn't be discussing this. I'd be on Emmett too. But at -150 I'm for sure comfortable playing Stephens.

 

[t6p]

I've never been great at articulating why I pick a side and, for instance, I was a big proponent of Romero and Cerrone but wasn't very vocal about them on here. I'll give it a go now:

Stephens has faced much more competition, no doubt. And to the better competition he normally loses: Frankie, Max, Cub, Cerrone, prime Pettis. Now, he recently beat a shattered Barao, Gilbert's shadow and an overhyped child who the UFC saw fit, for whatever reason (impending military absence?) to feed to the wolves very quickly. He reacted to both his 2017 wins like he'd just won the lottery, heart on his sleeve. But I'm not really impressed. At this point we know exactly what he's bringing. He's game and willing to fight but isn't really all that good - winging wild throws in the midst of arguably low volume but has moderate to good killer instinct. In Stephens I see a flat arrow: thrilled to be a fighter for a living with wins being a cherry on top.

On the other side is a guy with an arrow up who just KO'd a very good fighter. He looked as quick as Lamas and whatever Lamas landed seemed to have no effect outwardly. Before that he did everything but finish Arantes (a 30-25?! lol). Prior to that his sole loss, a split to Green, was interesting. I can see how he lost...because Green tricked the judges. Honestly. Emmett pushed a frenetic pace, was the aggressor, went for it the whole fight, while Green hopped around, moved backwards at any confrontation, threw open finger jabs, complained about a non-existent low blow, and was boring as hell. I am not surprised Emmett is in a main event and Green is what? Where? Two recent decision losses before two close split wins. Could've easily been 0-4 in these. I digress.

Emmett has shown he can get hit but while his recovery is really fast it looks like very little actually hurts him - won his debut with a fractured finger. They're going to seem quite similar in their styles but Emmett will push the pace, make Stephens appear noticeably slower, and look absolutely the part in another name win.

I don’t necessarily disagree with any of your points but I think you’re overlooking some of the stylistic reasons why this could be a bad matchup for Emmett. Most importantly, Emmett’s cardio has looked questionable at best, even at 155. He fought Lamas on short notice, so missing weight was excusable, but he looked extremely drained on the scale. I can’t see how the cut to 145 is going to do him any favors against a guy who can push the pace himself and doesn’t slow down.

When Emmett does fatigue he starts throwing wild, looping punches that aren’t going to be effective against a guy like Stephens. I don’t see wrestling as an option here either for Emmett, he gassed badly in the Holtzman fight.

IMO, Emmett’s best chance is landing a KO shot early in the fight. I felt the same way against Lamas and fair play to him, he pulled it off. But Stephens has an excellent chin and if Emmett doesn’t get that KO I think he’s going to slow down and be in a lot of trouble late in the fight. I think the odds are accurate if this was 3 rounds, but 5 rounds gives Stephens a significant edge.

 

[Caicara]

Ah, about the Main Event...Toss up. For real.

I'd slightly favor Stephens based only on experience and recent performances combined. Yeah. But 55-60%

 

[Soccer Steve]

I don't disagree that Emmett's star is probably rising, he's looked better lately for sure (his last 2 fights). I was completely underwhelmed by his first 3 UFC fights honestly. There wasn't much he did that was impressive there. I don't think Arrantes is very good either, although Josh mopped the floor with him so it's not like I'm criticizing his performance. The bomb he landed on Lamas was impressive, but for me it's hard to put a ton of stock in a one punch KO unless it becomes a pattern where you can say "That guy has scary power". Josh landed a perfectly placed, perfectly timed punch flush and KO'd a really good fighter. Josh deserves credit for sure, but the takeaway for me is still...I don't know.

The guys you listed that have beaten Stephens would all smoke Josh imo. And remember that Stephens gave Frankie everything he wanted and even had him a bit wobbled in round 3 of that fight. Stephens has showed his power carries deep into fights. Josh looked horribly gassed late in the Holtzmann fight. Seems like he's mostly fixed that (like you said, the Green fight showing it), but he's not hurting guys later in fights that I've seen. And remember Stephens hasn't lost to every top guy. He flatlined RDA in that fight.

The other thing Jeremy does so much better than Josh is throw hard, untelegraphed leg kicks. Could end up making a big difference in this fight.

In the end, I'll pay a little juice on the guy who's been in a lot of elite guys and hung in there, competing well and looking the part. If Stephens was -240 we wouldn't be discussing this. I'd be on Emmett too. But at -150 I'm for sure comfortable playing Stephens.

I think Stephens is a bully and looks amazing against a boy-man like Choi who wasn't moving much and willing to trade (wtf why?). I think he's also easily frustrated when outwitted or not landing and Emmett's pace and movement will do it here.

But yours are all fair points (except the RDA one maybe. 10 years ago, but yeah sure) and good luck to you. Although a small part of me is cheering for Stephens to put together like 6 blitzes in a row so he gets to fight McGregor as revenge for Conor turning him into a meme.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I don’t necessarily disagree with any of your points but I think you’re overlooking some of the stylistic reasons why this could be a bad matchup for Emmett. Most importantly, Emmett’s cardio has looked questionable at best, even at 155. He fought Lamas on short notice, so missing weight was excusable, but he looked extremely drained on the scale. I can’t see how the cut to 145 is going to do him any favors against a guy who can push the pace himself and doesn’t slow down.

When Emmett does fatigue he starts throwing wild, looping punches that aren’t going to be effective against a guy like Stephens. I don’t see wrestling as an option here either for Emmett, he gassed badly in the Holtzman fight.

IMO, Emmett’s best chance is landing a KO shot early in the fight. I felt the same way against Lamas and fair play to him, he pulled it off. But Stephens has an excellent chin and if Emmett doesn’t get that KO I think he’s going to slow down and be in a lot of trouble late in the fight. I think the odds are accurate if this was 3 rounds, but 5 rounds gives Stephens a significant edge.

Funny, I didn't mention it (avoiding it?) but the 3 vs 5 aspect gave me the biggest pause. I just have to assume that a full camp at a place as reputable as TAM will sort out the weight and tactical approach to pace. I have to believe Emmett's camp is seeing their guy as just as tough but quicker and will formulate the gameplan around that.

 

[mkess101]

I think Stephens is a bully and looks amazing against a boy-man like Choi who wasn't moving much and willing to trade (wtf why?). I think he's also easily frustrated when outwitted or not landing and Emmett's pace and movement will do it here.

But yours are all fair points (except the RDA one maybe. 10 years ago, but yeah sure) and good luck to you. Although a small part of me is cheering for Stephens to put together like 6 blitzes in a row so he gets to fight McGregor as revenge for Conor turning him into a meme.

Yeah RDA was a long time ago, that's true. So were a lot of his losses to be fair. Looking at the Edgar fight, he may have been frustrated but he still did land significant, near fight-ending shots in round 3 of that fight. So it's not like he stops fighting when frustrated.

I don't think he's eons better than Josh or anything. Stephens isn't a championship fighter imo. I just think he's enough better to justify this line is all. I would not be shocked AT ALL if Josh won. Like I said, if he was +200 I'd be betting him.

 

[null]

Stephens is such a more experienced striker than Emmett, has fought way better competition and has only been knocked out once in 41 fights. Emmett's KO of Lamas was very impressive, but this will be the hardest hitting striker and best chin that Emmett will have faced. I don't personally think this is a 55/45 or 60/40 type fight. Stephens is the rightful favorite at -145 for me and Emmett has to prove he can hang with Jeremy on the feet as far as I am concerned.

 

[iGnP]

take this for what it's worth: I believe the thread's consensus opinion on Emmett's fights has been wrong, both in his wins and his loss

 

[mkess101]

take this for what it's worth: I believe the thread's consensus opinion on Emmett's fights have been wrong, both in his wins and his loss

Oh shit. He's one of THOSE guys huh?

I take it back, 10u on Emmett!

(Kidding, I'm sticking with my read LOL--but now you've made me nervous).

 

[t6p]

Funny, I didn't mention it (avoiding it?) but the 3 vs 5 aspect gave me the biggest pause. I just have to assume that a full camp at a place as reputable as TAM will sort out the weight and tactical approach to pace. I have to believe Emmett's camp is seeing their guy as just as tough but quicker and will formulate the gameplan around that.

TAM is obviously an excellent camp and I'm sure they'll have Emmett as ready as he can be. But, it's not like he's a young prospect who's going to make huge strides from fight to fight. He's still young in fight years I suppose, but at 32 I'm not sure how fixable his cardio issues are. Basically, I need to see him be able to execute their gameplan over 5 rounds, before I can assume that he's capable of doing it.

Also, Emmett closed +245 against Lamas. He's now +125 against arguably a tougher matchup, in a 5 rounder. Personally, I didn't see enough in the Lamas fight to justify that difference in price.

 

[t6p]

take this for what it's worth: I believe the thread's consensus opinion on Emmett's fights have been wrong, both in his wins and his loss

Do you have a lean on the fight?

 

[iGnP]

Do you have a lean on the fight?

No, pretty sure I won't be betting the fight at all. There are better spots on the card

 

[iGnP]

@t6p just to elaborate a bit, I think both of Emmett and Stephens are pretty overrated so its hard to gauge how they would do against each other. If this were a pick em, I'd bet Stephens. Do I see Stephens winning this fight more than 60% of the time in order to justify a play on Stephens -150? No, probably not. On the flip side, Emmett has been square in practically all his UFC wins and looked terrible in his loss. I honestly can't tell how good he actually is/isnt

 

[t6p]

@t6p just to elaborate a bit, I think both of Emmett and Stephens are pretty overrated so its hard to gauge how they would do against each other. If this were a pick em, I'd bet Stephens. Do I see Stephens winning this fight more than 60% of the time in order to justify a play on Stephens -150? No, probably not. On the flip side, Emmett has been square in practically all his UFC wins and looked terrible in his loss. I honestly can't tell how good he actually is/isnt

All fair points. And to be clear I'm not ultra confident or anything, I played him for 2u at his -130 opener. I may consider adding a bit more, depending on a prop price that I'd feel confident using as a hedge.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

If I might add something to the Stephens v Emmett talk, in a recent interview on mmajunkie radio, Emmett was saying it's very hard for him to not put 100% power into all of his punches which is why, as @t6p said, he starts throwing wild looping punches as he gets tired. Ever try to do flys as fast as you can after you've already done other shoulder exercises? Lil' Heathen is still throwing the same kind of punches late in the fight albeit with less volume. What's the gameplan then? Ko? Good luck. Grind him out? I think I would rate Elkins wrestling as better than emmetts. Probably not going to be on his bike for 25 minutes either. Idk just food for thought and probably not anything everybody doesn't know already. Personally I'm not picking a side on the ML but will be looking at the point spread for the fight but most likely will be passing altogether.