Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 15, 2018.
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying.
I watched tape on Markos/Lima.
Markos should win a decision, more aggressive, more volume and output, improved boxing, still gets hit a lot though but should be able to get Lima down with the inside leg trip.
What sold me was (Markos) her last against Grasso was in Mexico City with a high altitude and they put on a crazy pace, debatable who won though. Lima isn't going to match that output and Markos should have no problem putting up that output in a non high altitude environment.
im not sure why anyone would think that jacare looks the same as he did two years ago, rehydration, breathing, what-have-you.
to me, he doesnt look good
i bet brunson at +150 in what i think is a pick em
fastest sub price +1200
fastest ko GG +1000
fotn brunson-jacare +400
all tiny, as limits dictate, but just sharing =P
GG comes out fast, maybe he gets another holbrook result? (Hopefully not for my bets hehe)
price fastest sub was a nice pay jump from his sub line and i think he's capable of getting it fast like in the thatch fight.. but these are long odds why not =P
FOTN i just personally expect jacare-brunson to go pretty deep (tho i acknowledge both guys have the capability to get a stoppage early) -- and if it does, they love giving it to main events. and i think this'll be competitive throughout. edit: just threw a tiny tiny stab on +800 koch-green, too, hehe.
Durable? Camacho got KO/TKO'd 3 times on the regionals by nobodies, and I can't take that seriously in a UFC fighter. Camacho's went the distance with a Brown that he was outclassing, and a Li that he stunned in the first round who then never quite pulled the trigger. A regional KO/TKO to me is never a good sign for a dude's chin, especially if they're below MW. I could see this one being surprisingly quick.
He took a lot of clean punches in both his UFC fights without going down so I'd say he's durable. His head barely moved when Brown hit him with his best shots lol. Btw one of those TKOs was a doctor stoppage and two of them was in 2007.
Uh are you talking about his left elbow?
Unless you've actually seen those fights, it might be a bit misleading to use Tapology/Sherdog/Wiki to cap KO/TKOs. Some TKOs are straight up fatigue stoppages rather than a chin getting cracked. Some are grappling or positional TKOs. For instance, in Cormier/Oezdemir, it would be inaccurate to say that Oezdemir demonstrated a bad chin because he got TKO'd. He was trapped in a position where he just couldn't move to defend himself.
A lot times we see a record and think that a KO listed means someone got cracked with something huge, when the reality is something completely different. That said, Camacho did lose to Han Seul Kim via 1st round TKO. Usually 1st round stoppages are more indicative of a chin getting cracked.
Just finished watching tape for Chookagian/Borella and here are my thoughts:
Pretty easy fight to understand here. Borella will look to take Chookagian down with a bodylock trip and then establish top control. Chookagian will try to work her outfighting game, score points, and manage the distance well enough to keep Borella off of her.
At -150, we are betting that Chookagian is able to avoid the takedowns and outland Borella to win the fight over 60% of the time. Chookagian seems like she should be able to do this.
Borella looked great in her debut, plowing straight through Kalindra Faria for a perfect first round submission win. In her Invicta fight against Milana Dudieva, Borella won a comfortable decision with her trip takedowns and top control as well.
Chookagian should be to stifle Borella's game through her competent management of distance. That was the theme for all three of her UFC fights. Against Murphy, Chookagian was able to potshot Murphy at range for all three rounds and win a comfortable decision despite Murphy's constant forward pressure.
Chookagian fell a bit short against Liz Carmouche's more balance offense which was a mix of forward pressure, varied striking, and quick level change takedowns. Carmouche was able to put Chookagian on her back multiple times in the first two rounds of that fight, and the sight of Chookagian on the ground throwing up a full guard and working for submissions of her back will have some doubting her chances against Borella here. However, the scenario is a bit different with Borella.
At 125 lbs, Chookagian will be fighting at a weight class more suited for her, and she won't be overpowered quite as easily. Though vulnerable to deep double leg takedowns by Carmouche, Chookagian was strong in the clinch against bigger girls than Borella. Borella's game is also going to be more limited than Carmouche. Her striking output is very low, and Borella will be outpointed by the faster paced and higher volume Chookagian for every second the fight stays standing.
Borella is not a pressure fighter, and will give Chookagian much more room to work than either Carmouche or Murphy. Chookagian is adept at maintaining range to pot-shot, and getting out of the way of return fire or takedown attempts. Borella may have to rely on crashing forward to close the distance and to clinch up. There's a chance this still might work against Chookagian, but it's unlikely that it will. Chookagian will be a bit too mobile, athletic, and will have certainly gameplanned to avoid Borella's strengths.
I was planning to bet Fili at dog odds but after watching tape, I'm passing. Fili takedown defense stats is overrated because he has fought mainly strikers, even though Fili won, Hacran Dias was able to execute takedowns and hold Fili down for periods, Fili does have decent getups though.
Bermudez is even a better wrestler and in interviews he said he plans to take Fili down and hold him there and beat him up. Bermudez needs a W for job security, two fight losing streak. Fili does have guys at TAM to replicate Bermudez but his long body makes it easier to be taken down. For Fili to win, he has to keep Bermudez at the end of his jab for 3 rounds without Bermudez getting inside.
I'm passing on Bermudez just because he finds ways to lose sometimes.
no, the loin area.
i dont think hes going to have success taking brunson down and derek imo is the superior striker at this stage in jacares career
What do we think about Koch vs Green?
Green has no interest in wrestling here, imo, as he has stated that he is hunting for FOTN bonuses -- maybe that could play into Koch's hand a bit?
markos nsc got down near evens, smashing that up a bit. lima has like no finishing skills, hehe
Markos looking pretty good...I don’t mean for betting I mean GOTDAMM did ya’ll see her at ceremonial weigh ins?!?
prob already discussed but Bektic moved to Tristar? Bektic decision is still +188
nice spot, tristar dec is usually a good play.
Also feel like his last fight against Elkins prob forces his hand into a more "safe" fight anyway. Prob my fav prop of the night now
can someone explain how neto bjj is even with pichel?
pichel should smoke him.
Pichel has had a number of injuries and personal issues. On top of that he's had 1 fight in the last 3.5+ years and it lasted less than a round. Although he did get a first round KO in that fight, he looked off in the few minutes leading up to it imo.
@EzFlyer thoughts on Koch?
Separate names with a comma.