UFC FOX 26 - RDA vs Lawler - Winnipeg

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Had to hit Perry at +160. Perry is young and athletic. He has a stout chin and massive heart. Most importantly, he's seemingly improving incrementally fight-to-fight. I'm relying on continued improvement and Perry's ability to dictate the terms of the fight w/ his physicality. Ponzi is no doubt more of a technician, but the W over Gunni is skewed due to the eye pokes (in my opinion) and he's relatively one-dimensional.

I need to review more tape in order to develop a more comprehensive breakdown, but at the current odds I was compelled to lean w/ the prospect.

EDIT: Also looking to hit Lamas at -240. Just re-watched several Emmett fights and I think Lamas is likely superior in virtually every area. Don't believe Emmett has the power or submission prowess to finish Lamas. Therefore I intend to bet heavy on Lamas and perhaps hedge w/ an Emmett by decision (theoretically could potentially see Emmett attempt to stymie the Lamas offensive by implementing a laborious, wrestling/grappling heavy game plan)
Did you call Ponz one dimensional compared to Perry?
 
Apparently Lawler is around 215 walk around weight, he will be substantially bigger than RDA imo. Also, putting on mass isn't a great thing for RDA, since his speed and cardio are his big advantages at 170..
 
Weren't we all talking about how thick RDA looked when he stepped in the cage with Magney?
 
Arantes is a vet who's never been stopped by strikes before and Emmett seemed to have him in danger all throughout the fight, he was visibly much stronger and more threatening, he just didn't manage to land that finishing shot, it happens, doesn't have to mean someone can't crack. And I don't buy the narrative of Arantes playing possum in the slightest.

For the record, I was on Arantes for that fight and that made me feel a +200 bet was square.

Appreciate the interesting discourse. I watched Arantes/Emmett last night, but went back and re-watched it again after your post. I'll concede as I did in my earlier post that Emmett hurt Arantes several times throughout the fight. We know from his prior UFC bouts, however, that Arantes is a bend, but don't break type fighter - meaning he's been hurt before, despite never being finished w/ strikes.

I do disagree with your assessment that Arantes wasn't playing possum "in the slightest." Sure, I agree Emmett dropped him cleanly a number of times. But, we've seen Arantes submit people from his back and reverse position. He knew he had an advantage on the ground. It looked apparent to me several times that Arantes recognized the disadvantage he had striking and attempted to goad Emmett into engaging on the ground.

Regardless, of course Emmett was much stronger. He is the bigger more physically imposing man. Though he may be bigger/stronger than Lamas, I think the difference will be negligible as Lamas is not undersized (former 155er as well) and has handled bigger opponents (Diego, Koch, Hacran) quite well in the past.

Lastly, I didn't say Emmett couldn't crack. Guy hit Arantes pretty hard multiple times!! :( (I, too, was on Arantes), but he hasn't looked like a power guy from what I've witnessed. Please forgive my ignorance if I'm neglecting to remember, but I can't recall him having rocked or significant stunned any UFC opponents besides Arantes. Maybe I'm mis-characterizing him, but I see Emmett as more of a wrestler and a bit formulaic and stiff in his striking, albeit throws solid volume. I think this is Lamas' fight to lose.
 
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Apparently Lawler is around 215 walk around weight, he will be substantially bigger than RDA imo. Also, putting on mass isn't a great thing for RDA, since his speed and cardio are his big advantages at 170..

Wow, really? Where did you get this insight from? I never thought he looked that big to me, so I'm just shocked. That's enormous, wow!!
 
I don’t think Emmett will have a thing for lamas. Completely different animal and a huge step up. I wish lamas would come down some more but had to take some at -245. I want him at -220 but doubt that will ever come down that much.
 
I don’t think Emmett will have a thing for lamas. Completely different animal and a huge step up. I wish lamas would come down some more but had to take some at -245. I want him at -220 but doubt that will ever come down that much.

Always been a Lamas fan and I think he should be favored. But his smashing of Knight sort of doesn't look so smashy now
 
Always been a Lamas fan and I think he should be favored. But his smashing of Knight sort of doesn't look so smashy now

To be fair, it's also possible that the beating Lamas gave Knight had lingering affects. Against Benitez, Knight looked like a shell of the fighter we saw before he fought Lamas.
 
I think a lot of people were underestimating Benetiz. All the signs were there that he could give Knight problems standing.
 
Always been a Lamas fan and I think he should be favored. But his smashing of Knight sort of doesn't look so smashy now
I think lamas took his soul. That beating was vicious and ended in a stoppage. As bad as Benitez beat him he did not finish him, also lamas will have a huge advantage on the ground.

Not saying emmett can’t win, but I favor lamas pretty much everywhere.
 
I think lamas took his soul. That beating was vicious and ended in a stoppage. As bad as Benitez beat him he did not finish him, also lamas will have a huge advantage on the ground.

Not saying emmett can’t win, but I favor lamas pretty much everywhere.

I pretty much agree. But price matters. In all honesty Emmett could be a harder style match up than Knight was. Knight is a plodder while Emmett is a faster more mobile fighter.

I think higher than -210/-220 is pushing it
 
Wow, really? Where did you get this insight from? I never thought he looked that big to me, so I'm just shocked. That's enormous, wow!!

Through the grapevine from someone familiar with Robbie and his camp.
 
Anyone else like the over in Lamas/Emmett at -175? That is what I am leaning towards with current ML's if I bet this fight.
 
Any leans to Chad Laprise vs. Galore Bofando?
I think Bofando will be a +130 dog and Im thinking of picking him
He is impresive

Bofando is an untested striker, Laprise is a very fundamentally solid fighter who's 5-2 in the ufc. I'd be surprised if Bofando wasn't a bigger dog than +130

But I'm gonna take Bofando anyway cuz I like him
 
Bofando is an untested striker, Laprise is a very fundamentally solid fighter who's 5-2 in the ufc. I'd be surprised if Bofando wasn't a bigger dog than +130

But I'm gonna take Bofando anyway cuz I like him
Dangerous fighter

God given athleticism

But he is a 35 year old prospect that's only fought bums
 
All the value is on Emmet, no way I'd touch a 35 year old Lamas at -280

Emmet can totally pull of a decision. 145 is a much better weight class for him, he won't be at such a height and reach disadvantage.

I haven't bet him but I'm tempted, even more tempted after watching Road To The Octagon
 
All the value is on Emmet, no way I'd touch a 35 year old Lamas at -280

Emmet can totally pull of a decision. 145 is a much better weight class for him, he won't be at such a height and reach disadvantage.

I haven't bet him but I'm tempted, even more tempted after watching Road To The Octagon

I agree the line is a bit out of control now. I hit Lamas opener at -190. I haven’t finished tape yet, but my feeling is that Lamas has the advantage everywhere.

Where in your opinion is Emmett better? How does he win this?
 
I'm excited for the rest of the lines to come out. Have some heavy leans, but I don't wanna discuss before the openers anymore lol. I was told oddsmakers read this forum
 
I agree the line is a bit out of control now. I hit Lamas opener at -190. I haven’t finished tape yet, but my feeling is that Lamas has the advantage everywhere.

Where in your opinion is Emmett better? How does he win this?
Emmett is a slightly better athlete and he should be able to hold his own on the feet vs Lamas. Emmett has a high output of strikes, he can out work Lamas for a decision, possibly hurt him on the feet. The grappling is Lamas' world, Emmet would be best to avoid it IMO
 
I'm excited for the rest of the lines to come out. Have some heavy leans, but I don't wanna discuss before the openers anymore lol. I was told oddsmakers read this forum
LOL yeah SMH

There is only one real MMA oddsmaker and that is Nick Kalikas, there is no proof he lurks here and even if he did I highly doubt any of you influence the way he opens lines.

If I'm wrong show me the proof? thats what I thought
 
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