UFC Fox 25 - Weidman vs Gastelum - Long Island

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vkram said:
Why is Cummings favoured over Villante? His only realistic path to victory is by wrestling and Villante's TDD is decent from what I remember. If it stays standing Cummins is in trouble.
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wrestling/cardio is better, IMO.

but sure, he could absolutely get hurt on the feet
 
Cummins is too chinny for me to trust him with anything. I nearly had a heart attack during his fight with the Pole.

I forgot who said that Weidman was 'worse against southpaws' but he's only faced southpaws his entire career, so that can't be right.

I'm on Weidman small at dog odds. A big believer of the ground advantage Weidman will have, especially considering the size difference.

chris-weidman-kelvin-gastelum-summer-kickoff.jpg
 
Weidman has a size advantage alright but the flip side is that he needs to cut weight whereas Gast will be fighting at his natural weight.

Conditioning will be in Gast's favor as there will be no unhealthy weight cut, whereas Chris will be fighting with a depleted body which will affect his endurance.
 
JDB said:
Weidman has a size advantage alright but the flip side is that he needs to cut weight whereas Gast will be fighting at his natural weight.

Conditioning will be in Gast's favor as there will be no unhealthy weight cut, whereas Chris will be fighting with a depleted body which will affect his endurance.
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It's nothing new for chris. He won the belt doing it, and has also defended the belt doing it

His 3 losses were flukes
Dumb kick that lost him vs rocky
Lucky flyin knee from romeo
Dumb situation vs moosy
 
Captain Crunch28 said:
It's nothing new for chris. He won the belt doing it, and has also defended the belt doing it

His 3 losses were flukes
Dumb kick that lost him vs rocky
Lucky flyin knee from romeo
Dumb situation vs moosy
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He was noticeably tired vs Romero and Moose. More so vs Moose because while he did hit TD's early, Moose kept getting back up and Chris exerted a lot of energy getting him back down. I don't think you can call Romero's flying knee "lucky". He timed a brutal strike well and put Chris away. I agree about him throwing that kick vs Luke. No guarantee Chris wins if he doesn't do that, but he looked good prior to it.

Can't argue with betting Chris at dog odds I guess. He has advantages. But there's also question marks there for him. Kelvin has advantages too.
 
mkess101 said:
He was noticeably tired vs Romero and Moose. More so vs Moose because while he did hit TD's early, Moose kept getting back up and Chris exerted a lot of energy getting him back down. I don't think you can call Romero's flying knee "lucky". He timed a brutal strike well and put Chris away. I agree about him throwing that kick vs Luke. No guarantee Chris wins if he doesn't do that, but he looked good prior to it.

Can't argue with betting Chris at dog odds I guess. He has advantages. But there's also question marks there for him. Kelvin has advantages too.
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Okay but when he's on top of kelvin who's gonna be the one getting tired?
 
weedreference said:
Jab is far less effective from opposite stance, speed and footwork (everything to do with positioning) are more important.
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Not necessarily, and opposite stances puts more distance between the fighters. Not sure how you get this to be that his reach advantage is negated in anyway.

That said, Gastulem wins anyway.
 
Captain Crunch28 said:
Okay but when he's on top of kelvin who's gonna be the one getting tired?
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The problem is that Kelvin is a pretty good scrambler, and Chris (while great with TD's) isn't amazing at holding guys down. He's great at doing damage while on top, but because he really tries to do that his top control suffers. It's a trade off. He could adjust and be a bit more conservative to ensure he holds top position, but that would be a change for him and we haven't seen much to show us he's interested in doing that.

Think about it this way: Moose has been relatively easy to hold on his back during his career. King Mo did it, Jacare did it, even Machida did it. But Chris couldn't hold Moose down. And in the end it was Chris who got tired because he kept having to take Moose down again. A scenario like that with Kelvin isn't hard to imagine, and this is a 5 round fight. Even if Chris scores TD's early and the first 2 rounds look like the first round of Chris vs Moose, if he gets tired again because of it that still leaves 3 more rounds for Kelvin to take over.

Just something to think about. I won't be betting this fight big either way barring a GIANT move in the odds.
 
mkess101 said:
The problem is that Kelvin is a pretty good scrambler, and Chris (while great with TD's) isn't amazing at holding guys down. He's great at doing damage while on top, but because he really tries to do that his top control suffers. It's a trade off. He could adjust and be a bit more conservative to ensure he holds top position, but that would be a change for him and we haven't seen much to show us he's interested in doing that.

Think about it this way: Moose has been relatively easy to hold on his back during his career. King Mo did it, Jacare did it, even Machida did it. But Chris couldn't hold Moose down. And in the end it was Chris who got tired because he kept having to take Moose down again. A scenario like that with Kelvin isn't hard to imagine, and this is a 5 round fight. Even if Chris scores TD's early and the first 2 rounds look like the first round of Chris vs Moose, if he gets tired again because of it that still leaves 3 more rounds for Kelvin to take over.

Just something to think about. I won't be betting this fight big either way barring a GIANT move in the odds.
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I'm putting 1k on Weidman idgaf
 
Captain Crunch28 said:
I'm putting 1k on Weidman idgaf
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Well if the fight plays out in the way I mentioned above, you'll probably have nice live odds to hedge some on Kelvin if you want to.
 
Captain Crunch28 said:
It's nothing new for chris. He won the belt doing it, and has also defended the belt doing it

His 3 losses were flukes
Dumb kick that lost him vs rocky
Lucky flyin knee from romeo
Dumb situation vs moosy
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That is not the same Chris, were you the same 5 years ago?
 
JDB said:
Weidman has a size advantage alright but the flip side is that he needs to cut weight whereas Gast will be fighting at his natural weight.

Conditioning will be in Gast's favor as there will be no unhealthy weight cut, whereas Chris will be fighting with a depleted body which will affect his endurance.
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Weidman cuts weight pretty easily. You gotta remember these lean dudes (Rockhold, Weidman) have got more water weight than the stocky fatter fighters like DC, Hendricks, Gastelum.
 
OutRun said:

Weidman cuts weight pretty easily. You gotta remember these lean dudes (Rockhold, Weidman) have got more water weight than the stocky fatter fighters like DC, Hendricks, Gastelum.
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The weight cut isn't going to be a problem for him at all. He's been lighter earlier for this camp than he normally is.
 
vkram said:
Why is Cummings favoured over Villante? His only realistic path to victory is by wrestling and Villante's TDD is decent from what I remember. If it stays standing Cummins is in trouble.
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Yep. Villante still close to evens on betsafe, very tempted to hit him now, Cummins' chin is there to be hit.

Reading the last few pages reminds me a bit of the last Khabib/Ferguson thread. Over 100 pages back & forth of arguing who's got what little advantage here and there with no resolution. Just bet Weidman now if you like his line or live bet Gast after the inevitable 1st round takedowns from Chris.

12 other fights on the card to profit from lads.
 
Itsnotthatseriousmydude said:
The weight cut isn't going to be a problem for him at all. He's been lighter earlier for this camp than he normally is.
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Point is he's still cutting whereas Gast will be carb-loading and have endurance for days.

Meanwhile Chris will probably be on his rubbish low-carb diet, which might be good for temporarily cutting a little body fat but is bad for athletic performance. If Chris was able to load up on pasta and starchy foods this would give him more endurance, unfortunately for him that's not possible with his large frame if he is to make weight at 185.
 
Guys, lets talk about other fights... like someone mentioned its turning to a ferguson-kebab thread.
There are other fights !
My first lock is Jimmie Riviera against Almeida
 
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