UFC FN 130 PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by PuertoRican, May 27, 2018.

  1. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I rate hard body strikes similarly to head strikes. WB landed some hard, clean body shots (kicks and punches). Obviously it's all a bit subjective. Till's "landed" strikes just didn't look as flush or clean. But again, when you are talking about such low #'s overall, it's silly to complain either way. No matter who won, the other side would be complaining but neither really has merit imo. If it's a really close fight like this was and isn't ruled a draw, on a betting forum about half the people are gonna be unhappy. But we still need to stay as objective as possible. I scored it for WB, but really don't have a big issue with the fact it went the other way.
     
  2. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Right. At the end of the day, at closing odds, Till +130 had value and WB -150 didnt. If they were to fight again tomorrow, I think most would bet Till at +130
     
  3. timmyclax22

    timmyclax22 Green Belt

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    I don’t think Till backers would be complaining when almost everyone in the media including Mcarthy scores it for WB.

    Like if all the media scored it for Till I’d say shit, maybe he did win.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Yeah for sure. I bet WB when he was -115 and again at +105. Don't really regret it, I ended up basically paying a little juice on what ended up being a coin flip that I lost.

    I actually did have Till dec in a RR that I hit 3 of 4 on, so that covered a good amount of my WB losses anyway. I actually had forgotten I threw that in there. I hit 2 of those today. Along with my absolutely dumb luck live bets of Allen at +130 and +500 (which I won only by his miracle choke he slapped on), those are the reason I ended up with a small profit today.
     
  5. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    When people lose $ on a close fight they complain (me included at times). Whether the complaints have merit or not (and regardless of media scores), when money is involved people will complain.
     
  6. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Till winning a decision that 8% of the media agreed with doesn't make him value at coinflip odds. What sort of insane troll logic is that? WB essentially got the fight that most WB backers were expecting, where he outlanded a fairly-stationary Till by a decent margin in effective striking, and took a hard knock in there. Based on what we've seen, if the fight took place in a 'even' playing field so far as judging bias was concerned (And there was no reason to automatically assume it would be a factor pre-fight. We've had locals lose contentious splits lately, like Gastelum), WB @ -150 makes a lot of sense. If the media was split dead-even on the decision, Till +130'd be the value side.

    You made a silly play that was the definition of public juiced, and got bailed out by shoddy judging. It's okay, but it doesn't make the original play +EV. It's like if I was to say that Allen -250 was EV since he won.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2018
  7. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I was on WB and thought he won, but it was close enough that I'd say laying -150 juice didn't have value. I bet him at better odds than that so I still believe my bets had a bit of value but -150? Nah. And comparing it to Allen's miracle? C'mon.
     
  8. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    But I didn’t have money on the fight. I arbed out and took an insignificant profit after Till missed weight and I was holding a Till +140 ticket with WB sitting at -125

    I don’t think i said anything that’s worthy of being deemed trolling. WB didn’t outland Till by a decent margin, Till actually outlanded him according to FM. In order for WB to have value at -150, he’d need to win >60% of the time. With the way the fight played out today, I can’t see how you feel like WB -150 was the right side. Both WB and Till landed between 5-10 strikes per round with Till probably getting the better of “octagon control”. If you wanna argue the FM stats aren’t accurate, I can’t confirm them obv but that’s what I’m going off
     
  9. TITS

    TITS Proper 12 Belt Platinum Member

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    I got Till at +140 (on an open parlay) with Magny and Elias.

    Hate the Spartan all you want, but he was the only lock besides Magny on that entire card. Still have both of them on pending parlays, along with my "dark horse" underdog Claudio Silva. Just got to close it out on Friday with some guaranteed winners.
     
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  10. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Another disappointing circle jerk.
     
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  11. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Elias didn't look like a "Lock" or a -400 favorite. Despite the scorecards, all the rounds were close and with a couple of judges seeing it a bit differently he potentially could have lost that fight. Don't get me wrong, I scored it for him 29-28 but acting like he just breezed through as a -400 favorite is silly.
     
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  12. TITS

    TITS Proper 12 Belt Platinum Member

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    Elias outstruck Trevor 77 to 41, two judges scored it 30-27. My point was that I saw him as a guaranteed win. I had no worries putting him on multiple parlays.
     
  13. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    He looked like a -200 favorite to me. He won, deservedly so, but the fight was competitive. If I lay -400 I want it to look very easy for that guy. Elias looked just as tired in rd 3 at Hot Sauce and while you won your bets (which is great, congrats) I don't think his line had any value at all.
     
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  14. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    I know that was another reason I bet him. I assume he would have learned and never repeat that mistake...
     
  15. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Till was very close to getting a finish after that KD....
     
  16. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Please let me know when Wonderboy/Till fight starts...
     
  17. burge13

    burge13 Blue Belt

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    No idea why Wonderboy is popular. Boring as F to watch and Welterweight is quickly becoming the most boring division in the UFC. Covington, Usman, Woodley & WB are all top 5 and boring. RDA better win the interim title to add some spice
     
  18. susanto

    susanto Blue Belt

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    Did U regret closing your Till bet?
     
  19. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I was on Wonderboy small and didn't have a problem with the decision. Horrible fight to be honest.
     
  20. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I think there are more complaints from bettors that lose really close, boring fights than from those that lose really close but super exciting fights.

    Like, if I have to sit through a snoozer I at least want to be paid dammit! Whereas let's say you were on Shogun in his first fight with Hendo. Yeah you lost $, but at least you got to see an all time epic fight.

    I have nothing to back up this viewpoint other than it at least seems that way here after the fights.
     

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