Reem has underrated grappling and gnp. He stopped Oleinek and Pavlovich with ground stoppage in rnd 1, while he's not a wrestler you have to consider the fact when he took Sakai down it was already late and fatigue diminishes every skill set, so he may start off with solid tdd but then diminish to average in the later rounds. Consider too that Blagoy is a decent grappler and could not secure almost no ground time. Blagoy has wins on Lima (who is solid kick boxer) split decision with Derrick lewis(which is a border line win) and a sambo background yet still lost a close fight. Also the high rated win on Tybura to me is basically like Spivak 2.0 .
I just see Sakai has a history of beating these type of fighters. Both Tybura and Blagoy are Spivak 2.0 .Spivak has closest wins Carlos that is similar(I'm not mentioning Tai because tai has average grappling while carlos and sakai have at least grappled a lot bjj.) but Sakai has yet to be subbed in all his fights. if we are trying to determine the most probable option for spivak to win its three methods.
High ground control Decision- no one has done that to Sakai yet within 3 rounds.
Submission- No one has done that (not even Reem with 17 subs, not Blagoy 6 subs) Spivak could not sub Felipe. Sakai has a bjj brown belt.
Gnp- only happened after 4 rounds when he was gassed, this is 3 rounds. Again Spivak could not gnp Felipe nor take him down till round 3.
Dec via cage stalling- Sakai was able to reverse Tai twice on the cage and land a nasty knee that made Tai wince. Muay thai fighters like Sakai have gd clinch fighting because its done a lot in thai boxing.
Ko on the feet- Spivak has 0 in the ufc. while nothing is absolute , its kind of like a pair 6s beating a pair of kings in an all in showdown.
Now Sakai
Ko threat- Spivak got starched by Aspinall and Walt via knees and elbows which a common trait of a thai boxer. Sakai has several wins with clinch striking and throwing knees. I also classify Sakai has a heavy handed striker.
decision via significant strikes.-Sakai has credible wins on par with spivak striking level. Arlovski/Blagoy
Sakai only needs to do a better job than Felipe and take the first 2 rounds and lose the third and still win
This of course is somewhat based on predictability based on pass performances, its all we have to weigh on. nothing is absolute, and i'll be the first to admit i have blind spots. We've seen guys with 0 kos ko a strking legend on the feet like Randleman Mirko, or Mirko subbing kevin. Nothing i wrote above means its 100% going to happen. I'm just looking at this like i have a hand in poker and im thinking about possibilities, but even a pair of kings go bust against 6's sometimes.
