UFC Fight Night 137

[Wiktoruspro]

Alvey + Trinaldo + Zaleski + Morales

Money back 3x. Looks good to me I see all of them winning pretty handily.

The fact that Morales was able to stand with Means is enough proof for me that he will beat Saunders.
Lil Nog washed up etc.. you all know
Trinaldo blows Dunham out of water imo.
Zaleski lock KO

Be careful with Alvey, he has low volume and might lose a dec in brasil.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

This event sucks. Im going to play one risky parlay for 55$ nothing more.
Sergio
Lombard
Augusto
Barao
Souza Renata
Francisco Trinaldo
Marina Rodriguez
Parlay system 4/7 55$ to win around 250$

 

[Gugabe]

Anders +135 is a no brainer. Went big on that already. A light gust of wind hits him the wrong way and Santos is out cold. Anders is durable and hits like a bus, and is obviously the far superior athlete.

Barao -135 doesn’t seem like enough honestly, I mean is he that shot that he’s really that small of a favorite over a guy I’ve never heard of?

Other than that, these lines blow.

Anders should be wider, IMO. We haven't really seen Anders durability tested by anything significant, and he's not actually that good at any aspect of the MMA toolkit aside from being a pretty-good athlete.

 

[mkess101]

Anders should be wider, IMO. We haven't really seen Anders durability tested by anything significant, and he's not actually that good at any aspect of the MMA toolkit aside from being a pretty-good athlete.

But we have seen Santos durability tested and he failed miserably. And being a very good athlete with some power is often enough to win.

If Anders was favored I wouldn't consider him at all. But +135 has a little value imo.

 

[Endgamesbro]

But we have seen Santos durability tested and he failed miserably. And being a very good athlete with some power is often enough to win.

If Anders was favored I wouldn't consider him at all. But +135 has a little value imo.

If he had a full camp and the bout was in neutral territory, I'd agree the lines should be evens. But the short notice+brazil is enough to give santos an edge here...lines seem accurate as they are imo.

 

[Gugabe]

But we have seen Santos durability tested and he failed miserably. And being a very good athlete with some power is often enough to win.

If Anders was favored I wouldn't consider him at all. But +135 has a little value imo.

Really overestimating Anders' athleticism and striking ability. It's a rush-in left hand, that's all he's got, and he's shown a reluctance to actually throw it several times now. IMO Santos slams bodykicks into Anders from range and wins an early, easy TKO. Anders' durability is also essentially unproven, nobody's hit him hard.

 

[mkess101]

If he had a full camp and the bout was in neutral territory, I'd agree the lines should be evens. But the short notice+brazil is enough to give santos an edge here...lines seem accurate as they are imo.

I don't think Santos style is difficult to prepare for and Anders fought recently enough that I'm guessing he should be about as on point as with a full camp.

 

[SBJJ]

No way I can bet Santos as a fave against a guy who can punch at all and seems durable

Santos might be better everywhere but chin. But that’s a big advantage to have

 

[burge13]

Anders was given a lay-up last time out and struggled to put him away as a -900 (can't remember the # but was huge) favourite. Americans seem to think he's some athletic phenomenon because he played football but he's remarkably unremarkable in the cage. I'd want a bigger number on him tbh

 

[mkess101]

Really overestimating Anders' athleticism and striking ability. It's a rush-in left hand, that's all he's got, and he's shown a reluctance to actually throw it several times now. IMO Santos slams bodykicks into Anders from range and wins an early, easy TKO. Anders' durability is also essentially unproven, nobody's hit him hard.

Meh Branch basically threw a rush in straight shot that put Santos out. Santos has flaked twice recently as a favorite. Anders is newer to MMA too so better chance he makes big improvements fight to fight than Santos does.

Adding it all up I'd rather play Anders as a dog. If odds were flipped I'd be considering Santos. Fight seems like a coin toss to me.

 

[SBJJ]

Meh Branch basically threw a rush in straight shot that put Santos out. Santos has flaked twice recently as a favorite. Anders is newer to MMA too so better chance he makes big improvements fight to fight than Santos does.

Adding it all up I'd rather play Anders as a dog. If odds were flipped I'd be considering Santos. Fight seems like a coin toss to me.

Exactly. Santos is twice the athlete Branch is but it just doesn’t matter with Santos

If Santos can’t get him out early he will be facing danger the entire fight

 

[mkess101]

Anders was given a lay-up last time out and struggled to put him away as a -900 (can't remember the # but was huge) favourite. Americans seem to think he's some athletic phenomenon because he played football but he's remarkably unremarkable in the cage. I'd want a bigger number on him tbh

Santos was a huge favorite over Spicely and a solid favorite over Branch. Not only did he struggle vs them, he was finished by both.

Anders is a good athlete but I agree hes not some dynamo in the cage. Bit neither is Santos, he can be dynamic but he can also shit the bed. I'd rather play the dog than pay juice on a guy who's shown he is plenty capable of flaking and being stopped.

 

[burge13]

Exactly. Santos is twice the athlete Branch is but it just doesn’t matter with Santos

If Santos can’t get him out early he will be facing danger the entire fight

Branch is also 5x the fighter Anders is. I'm not betting this fight at current odds but Anders isn't that good. I have literally no idea why he's so hyped

Lost to a shot Machida; even going the distance is worrisome.
Just struggled to bank a lay up not long ago

Santos has a questionable chin (might improve with no cut, many examples of this being the case) but is an offensive killer. I do not understand the love for Anders at all here

 

[Gugabe]

Branch is also 5x the fighter Anders is. I'm not betting this fight at current odds but Anders isn't that good. I have literally no idea why he's so hyped

Lost to a shot Machida; even going the distance is worrisome.
Just struggled to bank a lay up not long ago

Santos has a questionable chin (might improve with no cut, many examples of this being the case) but is an offensive killer. I do not understand the love for Anders at all here

Prettymuch. People are wildly insulting Branch here, who has way-more technical striking than Anders.

I also kind of think that Barao absolutely torches this random.

 

[burge13]

Santos was a huge favorite over Spicely and a solid favorite over Branch. Not only did he struggle vs them, he was finished by both.

Anders is a good athlete but I agree hes not some dynamo in the cage. Bit neither is Santos, he can be dynamic but he can also shit the bed. I'd rather play the dog than pay juice on a guy who's shown he is plenty capable of flaking and being stopped.

Yeah that Spicely fight is a red flag for sure

 

[burge13]

Prettymuch. People are wildly insulting Branch here, who has way-more technical striking than Anders.

I also kind of think that Barao absolutely torches this random.

I brought Barao up a few posts back - 1.80 odds v a guy who is a MASSIVE step down, on short notice, fights (and losses) in promotions that pad records, in home country. Easy bet IMO

 

[SBJJ]

Branch is also 5x the fighter Anders is. I'm not betting this fight at current odds but Anders isn't that good. I have literally no idea why he's so hyped

Lost to a shot Machida; even going the distance is worrisome.
Just struggled to bank a lay up not long ago

Santos has a questionable chin (might improve with no cut, many examples of this being the case) but is an offensive killer. I do not understand the love for Anders at all here

Anders is just as dangerous standing as Branch. Doesn’t matter he’s 10X Better a fighter

Plenty of fighters through history have been elite but had weak chins. I’m not betting that type of fighter as a fave over a limited fighter, but a limited fighter with decent power and decent durability

 

[null]

I like Thiago Santos over Eryk Anders at -150; bigger bet on Renan Barao vs Andre Ewell at -126.

 

[Gugabe]

I brought Barao up a few posts back - 1.80 odds v a guy who is a MASSIVE step down, on short notice, fights (and losses) in promotions that pad records, in home country. Easy bet IMO

Yeah. I think Barao subs him in 1. Kelleher's a legit top 20 guy who's an awkward, pressure-striking matchup for Barao. Sterling's a top 5 BW and still had a ton of trouble with Barao prior to the gas-out. IMO Ewell gets tapped quick as hell by Barao.

Anders is just as dangerous standing as Branch. Doesn’t matter he’s 10X Better a fighter

Plenty of fighters through history have been elite but had weak chins. I’m not betting that type of fighter as a fave over a limited fighter, but a limited fighter with decent power and decent durability

Have we seen Anders take a punch yet? Especially one from a guy like Santos? I don't get this assumption that Anders must be durable since we haven't seen him be KO'd

 

[ill800]

Anders was given a lay-up last time out and struggled to put him away as a -900 (can't remember the # but was huge) favourite. Americans seem to think he's some athletic phenomenon because he played football but he's remarkably unremarkable in the cage. I'd want a bigger number on him tbh

Santos also struggled against a dwtncs guy

Neither are worthy of a play at current prices