Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, May 13, 2018.
This is brilliantly written and I mostly agree with the breakdowns. A+ post.
Man watching tape on Cannetti he throws everything he has into his punches. He beat the hell out Briones in rd 1 of their fight and came out slower in rd 2 (though still throwing everything he had into the punches he threw). Briones then dropped him with a perfect uppercut and Cannetti was hurt a bit but did get guard and seemed to sort of recover. But then he made BAD positional mistakes and as soon as Briones had his back Cannetti was tapping before the RNC was even locked in.
I think Rivas itd +190 and Rivas sub +484 both have value.
Why is Luque such a huge favorite?
Ive always overrated him but he does have chin issues and Laprise can easily spark his lights out. Seems like if you were to play this, its the dog here.
Note to self:
*Seems like a good dude
*Does not like cops
Rivas Round 2 is +600. Just sayin'. I have a play on Rivas ITD at +180 already.
Cannetti all 3 losses by sub too...how quickly he tapped vs Briones is eye opening. Zero attempt to fight the hands and choke wasn't even in before he tapped.
Mmmhmm. Seems like Guido has about 4 minutes of gas and kind wants out of the fight.
That tap was
Which recent fight did you see where Luque had chin issues? His striking defense is really clean.
Edwards fight where he lost a decision, Edwards employed a grappling heavy approach to wear him down and couldn't knock him out when he was exhausted from grappling and wearing Edward's weight.
Laprise is really a lightweight and undersized for a welterweight and he is fighting a striker who trains under Henri Hooft and has a 4-4.5 reach advantage. Watch Trinaldo and Pearson fight and see how Laprise gets hit against higher end strikers.
Not saying Laprise can't win but line is about right.
I got it wrong, he's the dude I first saw on TUF. Yeah completely mistook him for another guy.
I agree he has looked beastly before getting outwrestled by Edwards. His striking is very crisp and leapt bounds since TUF.
Good points but Luque isn't is training in Florida for this camp. He's training in brazil.
Also consider the matchmaking here. He's the only Chilean on the card, and Ponz was gonna be a +500 underdog if he was still on it. I think the UFC picked Guido for this spot for a clear reason to get the native representative a finish.
Anyone on Syuri Kondo?
Who are the most guaranteed winners on this card?
Noted. UFC brass aren't exactly omega level cappers though. They have setup matches that backfire all the time. +Money on props for Rivas is a bit better than playing his ML imo. That's just me. Also might make a great livebet if Guido looks good for round 1 and has Rivas on the defensive.
If the odds are any indication than it's Usman and Suarez. Suarez is down from -900 to -680 better get some while you can! Jk don't do that shit. Consensus in here seems to be that Cummings has the most value. Still some there at -170 unless you're allergic to chalk.
We usually ask this question every event but which underdog tonight is most likely to hit or no one is really talking about?
Brandon Davis. He's the superior striker with a few defensive vulnerabilities Barzola totally won't be the one to exploit. Barzola is powerful and built like a mule but I don't think he's actually a "good" wrestler. If Davis can scramble effectively, then he won't have any trouble winning on the feet.
Anybody know what page the post that breaks down the short notice fighters, time since last fight, etc is on????
Cannonier, Kondo, Macedo or Puelles
Separate names with a comma.