UFC FIGHT NIGHT 129

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, May 13, 2018.

  1. lilbloaty

    lilbloaty Orange Belt

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    This is brilliantly written and I mostly agree with the breakdowns. A+ post.
     
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  2. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    lol'd here.
     
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  3. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Man watching tape on Cannetti he throws everything he has into his punches. He beat the hell out Briones in rd 1 of their fight and came out slower in rd 2 (though still throwing everything he had into the punches he threw). Briones then dropped him with a perfect uppercut and Cannetti was hurt a bit but did get guard and seemed to sort of recover. But then he made BAD positional mistakes and as soon as Briones had his back Cannetti was tapping before the RNC was even locked in.

    I think Rivas itd +190 and Rivas sub +484 both have value.
     
  4. jojoRed

    jojoRed Purple Belt

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    Why is Luque such a huge favorite?
    Ive always overrated him but he does have chin issues and Laprise can easily spark his lights out. Seems like if you were to play this, its the dog here.
     
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  5. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Note to self:

    @piglord

    *Good capper
    *Good writeups
    *Seems like a good dude
    *Does not like cops
     
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  6. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Rivas Round 2 is +600. Just sayin'. I have a play on Rivas ITD at +180 already.
     
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  7. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Cannetti all 3 losses by sub too...how quickly he tapped vs Briones is eye opening. Zero attempt to fight the hands and choke wasn't even in before he tapped.
     
  8. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Mmmhmm. Seems like Guido has about 4 minutes of gas and kind wants out of the fight.
    That tap was
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    Which recent fight did you see where Luque had chin issues? His striking defense is really clean.

    Edwards fight where he lost a decision, Edwards employed a grappling heavy approach to wear him down and couldn't knock him out when he was exhausted from grappling and wearing Edward's weight.

    Laprise is really a lightweight and undersized for a welterweight and he is fighting a striker who trains under Henri Hooft and has a 4-4.5 reach advantage. Watch Trinaldo and Pearson fight and see how Laprise gets hit against higher end strikers.

    Not saying Laprise can't win but line is about right.
     
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  10. jojoRed

    jojoRed Purple Belt

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    I got it wrong, he's the dude I first saw on TUF. Yeah completely mistook him for another guy.

    I agree he has looked beastly before getting outwrestled by Edwards. His striking is very crisp and leapt bounds since TUF.
     
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  11. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Good points but Luque isn't is training in Florida for this camp. He's training in brazil.
     
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  12. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Also consider the matchmaking here. He's the only Chilean on the card, and Ponz was gonna be a +500 underdog if he was still on it. I think the UFC picked Guido for this spot for a clear reason to get the native representative a finish.
     
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  13. BeefButt

    BeefButt Banned Banned

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    Anyone on Syuri Kondo?
     
  14. TITS

    TITS Black Belt Platinum Member

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    Who are the most guaranteed winners on this card?
     
  15. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Noted. UFC brass aren't exactly omega level cappers though. They have setup matches that backfire all the time. +Money on props for Rivas is a bit better than playing his ML imo. That's just me. Also might make a great livebet if Guido looks good for round 1 and has Rivas on the defensive.
     
  16. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    If the odds are any indication than it's Usman and Suarez. Suarez is down from -900 to -680 better get some while you can! Jk don't do that shit. Consensus in here seems to be that Cummings has the most value. Still some there at -170 unless you're allergic to chalk.
     
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  17. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    We usually ask this question every event but which underdog tonight is most likely to hit or no one is really talking about?
     
  18. OutRun

    OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

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    Brandon Davis. He's the superior striker with a few defensive vulnerabilities Barzola totally won't be the one to exploit. Barzola is powerful and built like a mule but I don't think he's actually a "good" wrestler. If Davis can scramble effectively, then he won't have any trouble winning on the feet.
     
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  19. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    Anybody know what page the post that breaks down the short notice fighters, time since last fight, etc is on????
     
  20. Jamah

    Jamah Green Belt

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    Cannonier, Kondo, Macedo or Puelles
     

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