ufc fight night 127

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Wiktoruspro, Mar 4, 2018.

  1. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Cos this is a close fight. Leon never wins dominantly and usually drops a round i think only fight hes won all three was against pawlak and he basically cage hugged all fight. Sobotta is legit and after tape i have no interest in playing a low volume fighter who is always in competitive fights who is imo overly juiced. Leon ends up on his back the rounds prob over for him too.
     
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  2. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

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    Im on Edwards, he is a smart fighter and fought already better competition (Vincent Luque and Barbarena)
     
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  3. trucido

    trucido Blue Belt

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    Love getting +175 for Sobotta, I feel like he gets underrated a lot, he closed around +170 vs Dalby and he absolutely smashed him.
     
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  4. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Sobotta is a beast
    He’s been on a roll lately and I think he has better grappling than Edwards.

    Odds should be close to pick em
     
  5. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Mma maths doesnt work

    Styles make fights homie
     
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  6. burge13

    burge13 Orange Belt

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    Jan/Manuwa U2.5 Rounds = +110
    Fight goes distance = +170

    that 2.5 minutes could cost you I guess but unlikely
     
  7. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Too much risk for minimal gain imo.
     
  8. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    Just watched some tape on Edwards/Sobotta.

    Edwards is the rightful favourite, probably should be around -160 to -170 at most.

    Edwards has fast hands, fast twitch muscle fibers and he is athletic. Grapples more than he should be with his striking ability.

    Sobotta has definitely improved his striking but if he just stands in front of Edwards and doesn't pressure him and make Edwards fight off his back foot, he will most likely lose.

    The last three Sobotta fights, not as impressive as you might think.

    Ben Saunders is completely shot as a fighter, Nicholas Dalby was battling alcoholism and depression. His loss to Kyle Noke who was on the latter part of his career, was just spamming kicks and landed the perfect body kick. Edwards is a lot faster and sets up his kicks better which should be a concern.

    If Sobotta doesn't get a submission and it stays standing, he probably loses a close decision. I need around +190 and up to hit Sobotta as a dog.

    I think Jans is a better dog at that price, both currently in the same + range.
     
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  9. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

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    Best dog on this card is for sure Marshman
     
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  10. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Betfair has prices. Max bet marsh +125.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2018
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  11. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    just unloaded the clip on marshman at +125, one of the most ridiculous lines i've seen.
     
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  12. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    Ray should be good for 1.63, right? Careful pointsfighting is what he does best and he should not have trouble doing that against inconsistent Johnson without taking many risks.
     
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  13. stretcharmstrong

    stretcharmstrong Green Belt

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    Marshman? Are you guys for real? He’s utter trash if my memory serves me correctly...
     
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  14. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    He’s just fought really hard or awkward opponents. No shame in losing to Shoeface or Santos. Janes made him look bad, but remember the next guy who tried to take that dude out?
     
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  15. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    huge value already. edwards chin is suspect. sobotta huge edge on ground. bad match up for edwards for me. his chin is gonna be tested
     
  16. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    upload_2018-3-14_12-23-19.png
    Local bookie, thought on Enkamp?Anything guys?
     
  17. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Watch tape before you comment dude. Styles make fights. Marsh at plus money is 100% the right play here. Look who hes fought giant fuckin mw's in lanky nuts who he ko'd, Shoeface, Santos and Janes all three are massive and Marsh should be at MW. He beat two of them and he was in charge against Santos until he got caught. Shoeface was a terrible stylistic matchup for him. Scott is going to stand and trade and while im not confident enough to unload on Marsh he has better and faster hands.
     
  18. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    About Sobotta, well it's a close matchup, I absolutely understand that Edwards is favourite, but odds should be closer.Barbarena managed to take a round and I think Sobotta is Better everywehere than Barbarena.Luque was an impressive win though.Probably gonna play Błachowicz.
     
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  19. michi972

    michi972 Green Belt

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    +Scott is a replacement
     
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  20. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Yup what two weeks' notice? Spoke about retiring if he didn't beat Askham too.
     
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