UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. joenewbie

    joenewbie White Belt

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    I have a parlay with Dawadu and Chook for 3 units. Honestly, I think Chook has good fundamentals in kickboxing but lacks any power at all. As someone else mentioned, she reminds me of Holly Holm just on a much lower level. I think she has good enough TDD and good enough BJJ training with Renzo/Serra that she can withstand Eye's attempts to get it on the ground or at least hold her own if it goes to the ground.

    I also took JJ for 1 unit. I'm not too confident with this card and probably should have passed altogether. The positive is that both of those bets are for + money so they will pay off nicely should those 3 win.
     
  2. joenewbie

    joenewbie White Belt

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    Where is max the underdog? In Vegas where I bet yesterday Max was -115 and Ortega was -105. After the weigh ins he might be a dog.

    As far as talking about WMMA, the guys in this forum put their money where they think they will profit, regardless of who is in the main event.
     
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  3. MMAOracle

    MMAOracle Orange Belt

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    I am a huge fan of overdrive as well but stats wise, he is due for a loss on this main event. Not gonna explain too much but his average main event prediction accuracy is at 57 percent but going into this fight, his winning column is at 78 percent. He is well over due for a loss. Sorry for the crappy explanation.

    [/QUOTE]
     
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  4. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Took Andes tko +390 as a hedge for my Elias play.

    I have a hard time seeing him take a decision from Elias

    He’s never been finished, and he’s fought some hitters

    I do remember seeing him rocked a few times in his last fight
     
  5. ViolenceFight

    ViolenceFight Orange Belt

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    I'm so glad I grabbed my Ortega positions when I did, looks like he'll be the favorite by tomorrow.
     
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  6. Kyle Stephens

    Kyle Stephens Orange Belt

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    The pre-fight week it almost over.
    I'll put here my bets and arguments for them in a couple of sentences:

    5u Shev/Gunni Bullet is gonna hulk her in the clinch, and Joanna can't put volume on her if she does not own the clinch. No way to put volume on Shevchenko, you can't win. Simple. Gunni is insta subbing that guy in the first round. Striking is kinda equally flawed, but Gunner, at least when he is fresh can fight well and his ground is just on another level.
    3u Bochniak is going to punk that boy. Pretty fighting in MMA is reserved for fighters with layered defence and deep bag of tricks. Sorry, Dawodu, you are not there yet.
     
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  7. MMAOracle

    MMAOracle Orange Belt

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  8. MMAOracle

    MMAOracle Orange Belt

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    my final say on Holloway vs Ortega.
    1) stats tells me that Holloway will win
    2) my own judgement tells me that Holloway will win
    3) other credible sources tell me that Holloway will win
     
  9. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    Ortega will win
     
  10. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Blue Belt

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    In what fight was Eye "severly undersized"? I've been watching her old fights a lot before betting on Chookagian-Eye, and her problem is not size (she was the same size or slightly smaller than every single person she faced at 135), but a slew of mistakes in her stand-up technique as well as generally poor/slow reactions.

    Eye was not "competitive" in many of her losses, either. Miesha Tate, whose stand-up downright sucks, knocked Eye down twice with right hands and beat her up standing.

    This hasn't improved much over her 2 fights at 125 earlier this year, either. She was hurt by freaking Faria in the first round of their fight, and even Rose-Clark, an almost pure grappler, was holding her own striking with Eye. Eye has slightly improved one or two of her striking mistakes, but numerous gaping holes exist.

    The same Davis that beat Eye, you mean? Nevermind that Chookagian beat both Borella and Aldana, who are both equal or better fighters than Eye, too.

    As I noted before, this is Eye's one path to victory. That being said, the only evidence of her wrestling is beating the awful Faria in rounds 2 and 3. And that was from the clinch, where Chookagian is fairly respectable, and her takedown defense has steadily improved.

    What makes it "mediocre", exactly? The fact that she is presently less famous and well-regarded?

    There are actually things Chookagian does better than Holly Holm. She holds her hands correctly, as opposed to Holm's moronic elbows pointed outwards, forearms pointed inwards towards her own face. She also circles on the outside much better, varying her direction, as opposed to Holm, who continually circles into the power.

    This isn't so much that I'm a fan of Chookagian (watching her awful point-fighting exhibitions is sheer torture), but that I think it's important to value reality as opposed to hype.
     
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  11. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Blue Belt

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    After finishing watching all of Shevchenko's fights in the UFC, I like the idea of betting on her.

    I'm hoping the line drops further, but at -300? Yeah, I will wager a little on her. This seems like a phenomenally bad fight for Joanna. I don't even like betting on Shevchenko to win by decision, as Joanna was bothered by every bit of contact against Rose and hurt a number of times. What the hell is going to happen against the faster, bigger, stronger, better striker in Valentina?
     
  12. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    I think Joanna is being woefully undervalued here on the betting line. I'm attributing some of her getting KOed by Rose at strawweight due to dehydration mind you, so if her chin holds up here at flyweight I think this goes to a competitive decision. If it stays on the feet Joanna throws more volume than Valentina and can win rounds. I had to bet her near +300. I'm waiting to see her point spread too.
     
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  13. kevinramsdell

    kevinramsdell Purple Belt

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    Damn man Ortega up to -110 now : /

    He will be the favorite by fight night
     
  14. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Blue Belt

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    This reminds me of last week, when I wrote a long, detailed post last on why Macy Chiasson will dominate Pannie Kianzad, and you responded with a short, generic post stating Pannie would win via a method that made no sense.

    Similarly here,

    -Chins don't magically improve by going up 10 pounds in weight class while matched up against harder, stronger, faster, better punchers.

    -How does one beat Valentina Shevchenko through mere "volume" when her whole game is based around counter-punching? Do people even think this through? The more you punch at Valentina, the more openings you give, which Holly Holm, a very high volume striker, found out.

    Nevermind that Joanna relies on a height and reach advantage she won't have against Valentina, or that Valentina won't be nearly as cautious as she was against Amanda Nunes or Holm, for obvious reasons.
     
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  15. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    You forget that Ortega's got dreamy eyes, and has finished his fights in the UFC. 5 in a row is a very big number, there's no rational reason to think he can't keep doing it.

    On reflection, and re-watching Ortega's tape, I can see why he's so divisive. There's enough 'holy fuck that was great' there for people to convince themselves that he just needs to break through and do it consistently, and there's enough 'Holy fuck he sucks' for other people to think he'll get torn apart through his gaping holes. It's actually pretty interesting, and I'm curious how he'd be rated if Guida'd lasted another 10 secs.
     
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  16. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Last week's results have nothing to do with what happens this week. Despite the huge gulf in experience Macy's size as one of the few legit featherweights on the TUF season and strength were too much for Pannie in actuality to pull off her usual game plan that I articulated, not to mention Macy seems to be improving quickly. Good for her, I hope they keep her at featherweight such as it is since I am not sure she can drop down to 135 pounds. Pannie though should go back to bantamweight. Glad I didn't bet that too big.

    As far as Joanna, we've seen chins get better many times when fighters move up and don't put themselves such a grueling weight cut like Joanna uses to make strawweight. I think that contributed to skinny Rose knocking her out. Joanna is taller than Valentina at least. Joanna moving forward and throwing a lot of strikes is a good look for the judges in a fight I think will go to decision. Valentina's counters are very effective, but not as easy to look impressive unless she connects well and hurts Joanna. We'll see if that happens. I expect to see some close hard to judge rounds. I'd like to see the Joanna +5½ point spread when it comes out.
     
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  17. GoldenWolf87

    GoldenWolf87 Yellow Belt

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  18. Dianabol

    Dianabol Orange Belt

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    Michael Bisping said on his podcast there is a rumor that Max Holloway got KO'd in his training camp leading up to the first fight with Ortega and that was why he was concussed.
     
  19. IdunnoWhoCares

    IdunnoWhoCares Purple Belt

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    I'm gonna be super pissed if Max doesn't make it to the fight. Does anyone know at what time the weigh in starts?
     
  20. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

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    That seems like the most likely thing with all that happened. Maybe they still don't want to let it come out because Max relies so much on his chin and has never been hurt before, that him getting KO'd would be a bad thing to let opponents know?
    With how Max fights in the cage and his mentality one would have to imagine that he goes through wars in sparring aswell
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018
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