UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Nov 25, 2018.

  1. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Sounds like you haven't learned bankroll management. TIme spent watching MMA rarely turns into good capping by itself. I've known a range of guys who've had extensive experience in the sport (A few long-term UFC refs), and yet were both crap gamblers and not good at predicting anything much.

    Yeah. Fully agreed. Oli'll probably have the aggression to clonk Gunni upside the head, or walk into a counter and get dropped for a choke.
     
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  2. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 Minion

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    I was trying to justify a bet on Ansaroff for a long while as well but the strength of Gadelhas grappling is a major concern, she took Joann down 11 times between their two fights and attempted 29 takedwons, 16 in the 3 round fight. Obv Joanna is much harder to takedown than Ansaroff(Andrade went 2/10), Gadelha is a much better grappler than Markos and Markos got a hook in. Gadelha might even get the SUB. Ansaroff threw 300 strikes aganst Hill but only 130 against Markos. Hill wasnt trying to grapple but Markos attempted 11 takedowns, Ansaroffs ability to strike will be even more limited here imo. Ansaroff also loves to kick a lot which ma play against her staying upright. Gadelha getting rocked by Esparza was def not a good look but I'mma say that was an outlier, not something to be expected. Gadelhas cardio is the biggest concern for me as far as her weaknesses go.

    When Max looks fine at weigh he'll go bigger fav imo, I imagine a lot of folks who're putting big money down want to see him weigh in before they bet on him.
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
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  3. Dianabol

    Dianabol Orange Belt

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    It's god given ability
     
  4. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Orange Belt

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    Except that was at HW where KO rates are far higher and more importantly Bigfoot had been KO'd in 4 of his 5 losses before that plus in the Hunt fight rocked badly repeatedly.

    In comparison the worst we've seen Max is perhaps lightly stunned once or twice.

    Max clearly has a great chin and I really don't see how you can consider it in the favour of Ortega at all.
     
  5. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    It's a nice prop, already on it, small tho
     
  6. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Orange Belt

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    Edgar was way past his prime in that fight and fought pretty badly. Repetitive combinations and afraid to grapple.

    Anyone who has to say stuff like 'mark these words' is just trying to add some additional dramatic weight to what they are saying cause their actual argument is so weak. If all you can say is 'Max doesn't look right' then you clearly haven't got decent justification for your opinion.
     
  7. GrantSorenson

    GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    Yeah can't really read too much into Edgar outstriking him for round 1. I don't think Ortega has ever won the first round of any UFC fights
     
  8. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Yep. I've gotten to the point where I just kneejerk on hot takes, opinions and messages from god (Smith Sub3) and do like 20 mins of tape a card.
     
  9. Xuh

    Xuh Black Belt

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    Yeah Gadelha may well go out and plough her but we're talking about someone starting to close towards being a 4.0 underdog so obviously it's 'risky'. I just think the odds justify the risk, for a smallish bet at least.

    "Ansaroff threw 300 strikes aganst Hill but only 130 against Markos" - I like that, it suggests deliberate restraint vs a grappler to minimise the takedown risk. (very small) confidence increase ;)
     
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  10. GrantSorenson

    GrantSorenson Blue Belt

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    He posts way too much and way too long agreed. Would be a good poster if he reduced the volume of posts in terms of amount and size
     
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  11. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 Minion

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    I have no bet on this fight but I would reconsider if Ansaroff price gets better.
     
  12. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Orange Belt

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    Thats not uncommon in MMA at all. Aldo, Shevchenko, Anderson Silva etc. They all go slow to get the timing then open up with hard counters. Difference is they do it within one round. Only time Ortega did that was vs Frankie who was throwing the same left to the body and overhand right combination a ridiculous number of times. Its one thing to give up a round but Ortega gives up far more than that regularly and against a competent diverse striker like Max could spend the whole fight giving up rounds and still have no success. If Ortega tries that vs Max he's gonna lose the decision easily.
     
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  13. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    I favor Ortega over 95% of FW in the world.

    I favor a healthy Holloway over 100% of FW in the world.

    Holloway can win a striking battle here, and Ortega can still be considered a relatively talented striker.

    Both can be true and this is how I see the fight playing out.
     
  14. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Green Belt

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    Yea I mean the Ortega vs Halloway arguement has been beaten to death but here’s where I stand. Those in favor of Ortega seem to be primarily basing their confidence On ortega on what they see to be issues with how Max is talking In interviews. Let’s all agree no one knows if there’s any issue or not. People have said cte but that’s just rediculous. Ortega has been hyped for a while and people are really
    Overvaluing that Edgar win. Edgar was much smaller than him and got hit clean w a elbow and finished w the uppercut but with all those fights and his age that result was not entirely shocking. Max has eaten some bombs from aldo and smiled through it so I don’t imagine Ortega’s standup can stop him. Now as far as his jui jitsu goes its top notch and he has stayed in fights and finished all of them with the smallest of openings but I just think Halloway is too smart of a fighter to be caught in anything and i don’t think he will get taken down. He has a 83 percent takedown defense and Ortega has a 14 percent success rate on takedowns. It will be interesting and I’m not saying max blows him out or anything I just feel Like most people think Ortega will dominate this fight and just catch max w something easily.
     
  15. LiquidNuke

    LiquidNuke Orange Belt

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    Anyone going to take a stab at Shevchenko wins inside distance +178? I think I might...
     
  16. DevilsPt2

    DevilsPt2 Minion

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    Comment from 6 years ago, "man this guy shouldnt get hit in the head any more..............i mean this guy makes forrest gump look like einstein." Damn Max has had CTE mixed with Alzheimers with a sprinkle of dementia for a while now lol. Dont know how the fuck he survived McGregor and then beat Aldo with brain damage.
     
  17. ctm

    ctm Blue Belt

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    I bet on Anders against Santos and appreciated how he fought. He was going for it but just took way too much damage en route to that exhausting stoppage. It was brutal but I was impressed by it, he fought as hard as one could expect from him in that spot. I actually live-bet him again after one of those rounds because he was doing what I had hoped he would do. Not that it worked out that time.. but yeah I don't think he's going to sit back and let Elias run around and pick at him.

    I haven't pulled the trigger on Anders yet either but I really want to. I just hate thinking about that crowd/judging (literally a hometown fight for Elias)

    Also what was up with Elias in that Trevor Smith fight? He looked a lot worse and seemed to gas quicker than previous fights.
     
  18. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Last fight I was too focused on the KO, it's all about experience, we'll see how he does against a natural 205er, we won't be wrestling, we'll bang it out, I've done two camps for him, luckily the hamstring injury didn't take long to heal, the tear was huge

     
  19. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Ansaroff dec +365 1.1u

    Good enough line for me
     
  20. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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    Got injured, went through surgery, busted my knee, for me it's all about strategy, I couldn't help Conor that camp because of my knee, I will help him next time, I would have accepted any fight, he's wild, chases, reaches and capitalize, I feel like 165 would be great for me

     
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