UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

[AxeMurderer]

My hope is Brunson just dialling up to full Rabies Brunson mode, and turning it into a 50-50 by pure aggression, power and having a size advantage. Main risk if Brunson deciding to try badly kickboxing like he did against Anderson.

I hope aggression with a good amount of takedowns mixed in. Keeping him guessing when the takedown is coming should open things up for Brunson

 

[Orion]

Unpopular opinion: I think Weidman wipes the floor with Jacare.

He has good enough jiu jitsu to neutralize Jacare's, and is physically stronger than him.

I don't think it's even going to be close. I think he presses him against the cage and takes him down at will in rounds 2/3.

Funny how polarizing this fight is -- I think the opposite. Weidman's BJJ may be decent enough to neutralize in some positions, but ultimately Jacare could have his way with him on the ground if he wanted (Weidman is a good black belt, Jacare is one of the best to ever do it, gi and no-gi). Jacare's wrestling/judo is also serviceable enough to defend takedowns on the fence and he still hits hard and has some technicality to his striking -- he arguably won the fight against the guy who is about to fight for the title. I don't see Weidman's advantage here except maybe boxing to a decision. I'd love to see Jacare take this to the ground if he can get it there.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

honestly don't see how old man jacare pulls this off.

There was a Brazilian fighter last month ago whom was bit older and managed to pull off a stunning KO in his Brazilian home town.

 

[EndlessCritic]

There was a Brazilian fighter last month ago whom was bit older and managed to pull off a stunning KO in his Brazilian home town.

comparing sam alvey to chris weidman...

 

[Captain Crunch28]

fellas im betting a fresh $500 on brunson idgaf bout nuttin

 

[LiquidNuke]

Considering going big on Vanatta ITD at -125. His opponent is levels below the tier of opponents Vanatta has been facing lately and I really do feel like this is going to be a quick and decisive one. Frevola was just stopped in 1 minute into the 1st round against Reyes and hurt badly twice by body kicks in the 1st in the bout before that. Just not a very durable or skilled fighter, and a kill or be killed one at that. Think he eats something big here.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Funny how polarizing this fight is -- I think the opposite. Weidman's BJJ may be decent enough to neutralize in some positions, but ultimately Jacare could have his way with him on the ground if he wanted (Weidman is a good black belt, Jacare is one of the best to ever do it, gi and no-gi). Jacare's wrestling/judo is also serviceable enough to defend takedowns on the fence and he still hits hard and has some technicality to his striking -- he arguably won the fight against the guy who is about to fight for the title. I don't see Weidman's advantage here except maybe boxing to a decision. I'd love to see Jacare take this to the ground if he can get it there.

Me too, Jacare has better stand up and ground game. His cardio isnt bad imo, he was very active for 3 rounds with Gastelum and he lost alot strengt by trying to submit him at end of r1. He landed bombs on Gastelums chin which IMO would ko Weidman. We will see today but Im surprised so many people betting Weidman who is coming from a big layoff and isnt a cardio machine himself.

 

[kevinramsdell]

I also think Weidman wins by tko or decision. I don’t think Jacare can stand and I don’t think He can submit Chris on the ground.

I officially did the $100 parlay of Eubanks, Adesanya and Cormier (against Sherbro advice) Also put money down on De Lima and Shaymon based off of tape and sherbro advice. Even threw down $20 on Lewis for the long shot bet the fucker closed at a +475 for me. Was hoping for at least +500. Another parlay I have that I like was: De Lima, Good, Vannata, Burgos for $35. GL peeps

 

[GoldenWolf87]

fellas im betting a fresh $500 on brunson idgaf bout nuttin

I am not sure if that is wise but hey Madge surprised everyone so. Anything can happen in the ring tonight.

 

[piglord]

adesanya to win by ko/tko +300 at ohmbet, pretty crazy.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

adesanya to win by ko/tko +300 at ohmbet, pretty crazy.

I see him Koing Brunson with a high kick.

 

[JMoore]

I am not sure if that is wise but hey Madge surprised everyone so. Anything can happen in the ring tonight.

With the amount of muay thai experience Madge has, we shouldnt have been TOO surprised at the outcome. Especially since edwards likes to knock ppl out...

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Is Jacare still taking that shit to grow his hair out?

 

[LiquidNuke]

With the amount of muay thai experience Madge has, we shouldnt have been TOO surprised at the outcome. Especially since edwards likes to knock ppl out...

There's next to no footage on Madge besides a highlight reel, and even information on some of his bouts if had to verify.

I had 25 bucks on Madge ITD at +750 and it saved my ass on that fight, but that was hardly an easy call to make before the fight. Madge was a hefty dog, like +450 and up.

 

[Rasdun]

feels like jacare's line is too wide, wouldn't be surprised to see late money pour in on him. it's a tough match up for weidman with his lay-off, jacare's striking looked good vs gastelum.

I thought so and you're right. Jacare + odds are down

 

[Rasdun]

Call me crazy but I got Saunders for +400 and same with Roxanne. Had to throw a lil on BB just in case, the odds are too good to pass up.

Saunders +500 has to be worth .25 - .5 u no?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I wish everyone a good night, going to party tonight so drinking for ,,zdrowie" of everyone here
Good luck and lets fuck up the bookie.

 

[timmyclax22]

Brunson definitely has a chance, he tends to get KOed by people with big power and Israel hasnt really displayed that yet. Obviously when you catch someone rushing in the counter shot requires less power to put somebody down but Romero, Whittaker and Jacare definitely have more power than Israel so him getting sparked by those 3 doesn't make me think Israel is for sure knocking him out.

Israel is a lot more technical though obviously. Think if Brunson loses its by getting outpointed so Israel Dec at 4.0 is a good shout, definitely more value than Israel KO @ 1.91 and I think a very similar percentage chance.

Israel is deffo closer to the Anderson Silva mould than Romero/Jacare and Brunson arguably win that fight.

That said I think that Tavares is a solid win at MW. Tavares is a fringe top 10 fighter and the definition of a gatekeeper (I mean that as a compliment), he only tends to lose to elite fighters and Israel handled him well.

Should be a good scrap, Brunson definitely has a path to victory but Israel Dec is a great prop for this fight I feel.

I think he has a few paths and has faced the best fighters in the history of the division so a +2xx is crazy to me.

 

[Rasdun]

Yeah we are, saw it on betsafe now, that's a clear mistake, it's around 2.3 everywhere else. Stupidly enough you can get punished for betting lines like that when the faults on them

I know that is the case, it is so ridiculous! So we are supposed to think, " That line is good, So I will bet it, it but if it was too good I shouldnt"

 

[buckwheatloaf]

i was wondering how the lines change so fast if all the sites have such stringent betting caps. if it's not ppl betting with dozens of accs how does it work.

i know at the beginning it doesn't take a lot but its the day of.