UFC 225 - Whittaker vs Romero 2 - Chicago

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Naught2Sixty, May 13, 2018.

  1. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    No one is asking Punk to take down and dominate a UFC fighter. Jackson really sucks and isn’t UFC level either. He’s a camera man FFS.
     
  2. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Some of it will be Megan's size at the staredown along with all her tats. Not sure how many people will actually bet based on that, but there's always some...
     
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  3. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    i noticed a lot of the larger fighters got bet after staredowns.
     
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  4. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    i feel filthy but at pick 'em odds coulter might actually be a great bet.
     
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  5. PuertoRican

    PuertoRican Silver Belt

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    It's a 10 point shift in odds for every tattoo, right?
     
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  6. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Right, but who have you EVER seen Punk take down or control? I don't mean UFC caliber. I mean regional level guy. I mean even another 40 year old guy who goes the the MMA gym to train because he wants to stay in shape. I mean ANYONE. I have (and I think this is true of everyone here unless there's footage I've missed) literally never seen Punk complete one TD or do anything positive in any sort of actual combat sport situation. That's kinda my point. There's this belief that it's "grappler vs striker", but where is the evidence that Punk has the skills to compete with (let alone beat) even a bad MMA fighter?

    At least with Jackson we have SOME evidence that in one part of the game, he's capable of taking out scrubs. He's shown it. With Punk, there's literally not one shred of evidence that he can take down another grown man that doesn't want to be taken down, even a low level guy like Jackson. I'm not saying I know for sure Punk has no chance of doing it, I'm saying he's never shown one thing to suggest he can even function in an actual fight. Look at the initial punch he was going to throw vs Gall. He basically stopped mid punch as Gall drove forward for the TD because he had no clue what to do.

    IDK, before I would consider a bet on a guy I'd want to see one example at least that he has any clue at all what to do in an actual fight. Even against a total scrub. Punk has not provided that evidence. Jackson has.
     
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  7. tjschultz22

    tjschultz22 White Belt

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    More money keeps coming in on Pettis, do people think he has improved his TDD and getting off of the ground? I'm a little skeptical of it.
     
  8. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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  9. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    This is a fight between two bum level guys that are prob the worst guys in their respective gyms. Were told that Punk has been training at a good camp. Could they conceivably put together a game plan to win this fight through grappling? Sure. Is it a good idea to bet heavy on (essentially) a hand picked bum for CM, to fight in CM’s hometown, w the UFC ultimately having more to gain from CM’s win than his loss? Probably not. I won’t say this fight is rigged but are we 100% certain Jackson won’t take a dive here? I mean, I don’t think the guy has any realistic MMA aspirations like Gall does.

    I threw a flier on CM by sub but anyone who goes heavy on Jackson and loses Bc of some fuckery can’t complain imo
     
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  10. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    People seriously betting Bektic here even after he climbed over -200, then to -220, now -240??

    I don't get it. I can see favoring him a little over Lamas, but this is nuts. So wish I'd have waited on Lamas. My odds suck, I have +160, +190, +200. Ugh.
     
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  11. TITS

    TITS Black Belt Platinum Member

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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I would agree betting this fight heavy (either way) is probably a bad idea. I have a moderate bet on Jackson itd.

    Yes, both might be the "worst guy at their gym". True. (Def true for Punk, not positive for Jackson but for sure could be true). But again, Jackson has at least KO'd guys (scrubs yes, but real, breathing human men that were trying to do the same to him at least) in a combat sports setting. Punk has been in a combat sports setting exactly one time in his life, and was wrecked every second of that time.

    As for Jackson taking a dive, who's setting it up? The UFC is gonna risk their $4b investment's legitimacy to get a few more ppv buys out of their 40 year old ex pro wrestler who's "career" in the UFC will be done soon anyway? Not a chance. That would be too dumb to fathom. Punk's camp or "people"? Why? He wanted to see how he could do actually competing. He already made a bunch of $ in predetermined "fights". The whole "Jackson might throw this fight" narrative makes no sense. Not because I know he's above it (I'd imagine he is, but I don't know that) but because there's nobody out there who would take the chance to set up something like that.
     
  13. arrelione

    arrelione Member of the YES!!! Revolution

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    I can't figure out which bet is the worst bet of the card. It's either Bektic or Tuivasa, both might win but there is no justification for betting them at their current lines.
     
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  14. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    I don’t wanna speculate who would pay Jackson to take a dive but fuckery has happened in practically every single sport. To think the UFC/MMA is immune to stuff like that is garbage. Remember the Kuntz/Bang fight that was in the process of being fixed? What’s to say something like that hasn’t happened in the past. Again, not saying the fix is in, but to assume it’s impossible is naive imo.
     
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  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Agree. If Bektic was -135, -145, something like that...okay. People were betting him at -220. That is just insanity.

    Agree on Tuivasa too. If you want to bet him, just take rd 1 prop. After that his odds plummet, he has about 5 minutes of cardio imo. Even if the fight is somewhat slower paced. I'm on AA rd 2, AA rd 3, and AA ML.
     
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  16. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Maybe this is pure xenophobia on my part, but I don't think it was a coincidence at all that the fight you mentioned was the last time we saw an attempt at a fix and it took place geographically where it did.

    Punk is too big a name and would garner WAY too much negative attention if caught up in something like that imo. Anything is possible, but you still have to look at who's paying Jackson to do it. Organized crime to profit by gambling on it? With the low limits on MMA that are allowed, that seems unlikely. And I mentioned why it's so implausible for the UFC or Punk's camp to do it.

    It's not impossible, but then it's not impossible in any fight really. I don't think this fight has a much higher likelihood of it.
     
  17. hugdeeznuts

    hugdeeznuts Purple Belt

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    How does that make you feel?
    Whittaker itd
    RDA
    Holm
    Tai itd
    Jackson itd
    Blaydes by Dec
    Claudia/Bektic
    Coulter itd
    Rashad
    Guida
    Benavidez by dec
    Ige
     
  18. InTheCut

    InTheCut Blue Belt

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    anyone gonna start the thread?
     
  19. PuertoRican

    PuertoRican Silver Belt

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  20. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Wasn’t organized crime the reason for the Kuntz/Bang attempted rigging?
     

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