UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Not sure I follow you here. The Do Bronx fight took place almost exclusively on the ground and likewise the Ray fight in the clinch/on the ground. I'm not taking much from the Ricci fight as he's barely UFC level if at all IMO.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2018
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  2. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    The Olives fight yeah. But when he was standing with Ray esp he wasn't just stalking looking to counter but never letting his hands go (like he used to do). He was throwing. It wasn't a lot of time, but I liked what I saw.

    And yeah Ricci sucks but Felder was active there too iirc.
     
  3. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Not much at all happened in the Ray fight before they clinched up about a minute in. I think Felder needs to hurt Al multiple times to win a decision here, which is possible I suppose. If I'm playing Felder here I'd be on his NSC line at +105 or his KO line at +365.
     
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  4. OutRun

    OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

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    "Easy money" is an illusion brah, it's all about finding bad lines. You talk about Khabib winning as if it were a certainty-- does that mean you'd bet him at -300? -400? -600?
    If you would say no to any one of those, then you and mkess are on the same page but just disagree on the specifics probabilities at play. For my 2cents? Somebody's getting finished here. Khabib TKO is my forecasted outcome, not Khabib DEC.
     
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  5. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Personally think the most likely outcomes are Khabib decision or Ferguson winning the fight in the later rounds. I'm only betting Ferg 3, 4, and 5
     
  6. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I need to rewatch that fight maybe. I remember Ray backing up and Felder throwing combos at him a bit early on.
     
  7. OutRun

    OutRun I'm giving you a night call to tell you how I feel

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    Didn't Khabib say he could have gotten Barboza out of there in round 1 but just wanted to stay in the Octagon for experience's sake? I think he'll gun for a finish.
     
  8. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    I dont see that being a likely outcome, honestly. Firstly, I just cant see Khabib finishing Tony later in the fight. It could obviously happen but I think that's pretty unlikely. I'd really give Khabib like 2.5-3 round window of finishing him. Then when you consider how these guys match up, Ferg has the tools to at least attempt to nullify Khabib's game. He has great reach, pretty solid take down defense, threat of a submission, and he's pretty tough on top of it. It's not gonna look like the MJ or Edson fights. And as much as others ITT wanna say Ferg is a 'live by the sword, die by the sword' kinda guy, I think he's a smart guy who probably realizes his cardio is an x-factor. I wouldn't be surprised to see him try to drag Khabib into deep waters rather than go balls to the wall early if he were to be taken down. I can see him returning fire but I don't think he tries the same sort of wild techniques that'll put himself in a bad spot where he could be finished
     
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  9. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Last fight was 3 rounds. Khabib looked...okay in round 3 but still not as active as early in the fight. And he was literally the hammer the ENTIRE fight.

    This is 5 rounds and Khabib has never been past 3. And if Tony has ANY time early in the fight where he's actually getting the better of it, that taxes Khabib's gas tank more.
     
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  10. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    If Tony just tries to tie Khabib up in his rubber guard and stall out for long stretches I will be proven very wrong, and probably pay the price when Khabib wins by dec.

    I just don't see that happening. Maybe for short stretches here and there but Tony is ALWAYS looking for some angle to attack. It will go completely against character and what he's done for a long time if he stays on his back for long stretches.

    I can see him giving away round 1. But if round 2 is him getting taken down right away, borderline-reckless Tony shows up is my prediction.
     
  11. quincy k

    quincy k Brown Belt

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    i rarely play favorites but love jj in this spot. i think the chance of a free roll here in live betting is very very high
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. I agree, it's foolish to just dismiss the first fight and what we saw happen. That's just trying to invent new realities.

    But...

    You also need to examine WHY it happened, why JJ was such a big favorite to begin with, etc.

    Personally (just my view), I don't think JJ respected Rose's striking AT ALL. I think she figured the ONLY threat Rose posed is if she could get it to the mat. I think she was cocky, thought she'd just walk through Rose while they were standing, and could shrug off any TD attempts. I also think Rose HAS improved her striking significantly and looked unquestionably faster and crisper than ever before.

    So the question I guess is, can we expect JJ to be sharper and more on point in now knowing that Rose obviously has the skills and ability to hurt and finish her standing? And can we expect the adjustments made by JJ to be enough to get her the win this time?

    I honestly still don't know the answer. I'm not sure how I'll bet this fight.
     
  13. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I've been a Creepy Joe fan forever, but dude's chin might be SHOT. I know Gruetz isn't maybe the guy to capitalize, but Joe might be entering that phase where a stiff breeze KO's him. I hope not, I really do, but he's been through WARS over the years, and has started looking slow and was KO'd by Guida of all people.
     
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  14. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Well, that's another thing to look at then (your point about JJ realizing Rose's standup had improved drastically from the tape of her previous fights). Maybe JJ doesn't make good in-fight adjustments at all (which would be a knock against her).

    I may get on board the Rose NSC boat. I can see the sound rationale behind it. Need to do a bit more research.
     
  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Clay can still fight, but he has like 5 KO wins in 50 fights, and I think like 2 are from him landing strikes while standing. The last one was a decade ago. He has no power really. Which is why I was so big on Joe NSC against Clay.

    I agree that Gruetz has little power too. And he's a way worse overall fighter than Clay. But man, IDK, Joe might be DONE.
     
  16. jojoRed

    jojoRed Brown Belt

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    10th Planet JJ was developed to counter control based grapplers, plus new rules dictate damage over control. Anyone who says Ferg is fucked in this fight probably is biased and/or has minimal knowledge on MMA.

    Tony will be dangerous every minute of the fight because of the bottom game, superior standup and his insane cardio. He'll most likely lose the first round because he takes a it to get warmed up but once engines are go in the second and third round, the fight will get interesting.
     
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  17. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Love it.

    Also hit:

    Chiesa sub +425
    Felder/Raging Al goes distance +125
     
  18. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    I actually bet Rose the first fight. Won close to 5k on the fight

    But that short fight did not tell a complete story IMO.
     
  19. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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  20. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    wtf is this
     
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