UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. DarkneT

    DarkneT Generic Russian Platinum Member

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    Yeah I feel ya man it's smart and I like your style
    But... seems to me you've covered the variable of picking the winner, and I don't wanna jinx your bet but I can totally see Khabib winning a decision my initial notes I made on this fight were
    Khabib wins first 3 heavy
    Tony wins last two
    Khabib decision
    Based on Tony's toughness and Khabibs 'weight cut'

    Like I say I like your style but sometimes just go with the easy money?
     
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  2. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I just try to find value.

    If you look at Tony and how he has reacted to being put on his back since the Castillo fight, he does NOT lay there and try to tie up his opponent in his rubber guard very long. He takes chances.

    25 minutes is a LONG time for something really significant not to happen. And even If it goes the distance, I still have a chance if it's a competitive fight where Khabib wins rds 1 and 2, rd 3 is close, and Tony takes over in 4 and 5.

    I don't think it's "easy money" at all betting on Khabib, and I damn sure am not gonna pay MORE juice for the 2 outcomes (Khabib itd or dec) than I am for my 3 outcomes (Khabib itd, Tony itd or dec)
     
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  3. DarkneT

    DarkneT Generic Russian Platinum Member

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    Truly hope it works for you
    Hope we both get what we want and the ref saves Tony in round 2
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    LOL. Certainly possible. Can't underrate Khabibs control and gnp.
     
  5. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    edit ignore misread your post
     
  6. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Anybody like the Irish dragon as a dog?
     
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  7. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Yep. Have 2u on him at +120
     
  8. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    i havent bet a side yet but i think i love fight goes to decision at +120.
     
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  9. northsofia

    northsofia Orange Belt

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    I can not disagree with mkess101, someone will get finished in this fight. It was a miracle that Khabib didnt finish Barbosa and he is legit af. And we already saw how Tony reacts when he is on the bottom, he taked the risk vs Lee and he won and i think he will take the risk again.
     
  10. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Interesting angle. Felder is a strong lean for me pre tape. I'll have more to say after I get to that. I like the play though it's hard to see either of them getting tko'd.
     
  11. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    AI isn't the most prolific takedown guy but that's a wrinkle that Felder has shown a sub par response to in the past. IDK if AI is going to try and take Felder down, but if you told me that he would, i think the line is accurately set and there's no value on either fighter. With that being said, both guys have finishes against guys that aren't known for their durability so I believe that's why there's value on the over. Both are tough as nails and neither really has a strong submission game
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I can't find it now of course, but I read a quote from Tony after the Castillo fight that was something like (I'm paraphrasing) "Fans don't pay to see one guy lay on another guy. They want action. I think I beat Danny, did more damage off my back than he did on top. But that's the last time I play that game. Nobody is gonna lay on me like that again "

    The guy truly has the "kill or be killed" mindset, for better or for worse.
     
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  13. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Pre-tape I thought I was going to like Felder as the dog, but looking at the fight more closely, I think Iaquinta is going to cause him some problems.

    For one, Felder's volume is an issue. His boxing leaves something to be desired and outside of the occasional 1-2 he throws little in the way of combinations. Instead, he throws everything into single strikes, spinning attacks, etc. trying to end the fight. His wide hooks often fall short of their target. Meanwhile Iaquinta delivers straight punches in combination. Pearson and even Burkman before he gassed had a lot of success in boxing exchanges with Felder and I believe Iaquinta is a step up from those guys at the point in their careers when they fought Felder.

    I also think Al may be able to mix in takedowns to secure close rounds. He has a decent double leg and while he wasn't able to complete any of them, he repeatedly went for a single in the Masvidal fight. Felder's takedown defense is shakey and I think Al could look to exploit that if he needs to. Felder has some devastating ground and pound, but he doesn't have the offensive wrestling to get the fight there. Al has very good takedown defense and he's also likely good enough off his back to survive if he does end up there.

    The big concerns with Iaquinta are obviously the injuries and the fact that he's only had a few minutes of cage time in the last 3 years, which makes it tough to play him as a favorite. But I see Al's faster strikes landing first and I think his footwork is good enough to avoid Felder's loaded up attacks. Both guys are very durable with excellent cardio. I think this one goes the distance more often than not. I love Iaquinta decision at +350 and I actually put a full unit on it.
     
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  14. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    I'm not putting much stock into that fight as far as the matchup with Khabib goes. Castillo and Khabib are very different in their grappling styles and Ferguson ended up on his back in that fight mostly by his own doing, especially in the first two rounds. That was the very definition of lay and pray by Castillo. He literally did almost nothing but lay in Ferg's guard while Ferg threw elbows and sub attempts at him. Khabib will be worlds more aggressive if and when he takes Ferg down.
     
  15. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Agree w you. Maybe AI DEC is a better play than FGTD, I might split it half and half now
     
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  16. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I totally agree. I am EXTREMELY confident we will see little to no lay n pray in this fight. Now, if Khabib's gas tank holds up but he can't finish Tony due to Tony's durability then so be it. I will take a bath. But in a fight that should have a ton of action, I am more than comfortable with how I played it.
     
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Ferg/Khabib DNGD dropped all the way to -145.

    Value there imo.
     
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  18. zeckdo

    zeckdo Blue Belt

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    how fuccin weird is it that we're getting general props on fights on the fight pass prelims of ufc 223, yet no money lines (or props) on the main card fights of the card in 5 days. I know london is a shitty fight pass card but still, super weird. #postkalilkisdimes
     
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  19. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    My main concern with Felder was always his inactivity. But it seems like he's completely fixed that over his last few fights.

    Way too many questions surrounding Raging Al imo. I'm happy to play Felder at dog odds. Has a great chin so I'm confident he can get the better of it if Al tries to brawl (which he sometimes will).

    Al hitting TD's to secure rounds is a concern, but not enough to sway me from Felder as a dog.
     
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  20. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Green Belt

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    At first I thought that Moicano is unbettable in his return after first career loss, but I’m starting to like him as underdog. Kattar should be much simpler opponent with less unknown qualities than Ortega. Having fought pretty much veteran level competition since his pro debut, I think he must be a masterful game planner, excelent at evaluating his limits as fighter and very good at picking stylistically winnable fights for himself. Ortega is such a wild card, that I can’t hold that loss too much against Moicano.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2018
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