UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. TheKingOwl

    TheKingOwl White Belt

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    Renato Moicano +140. Liked it. He made good fights against Stephens and Ortega.
     
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  2. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Thanks man. I hit those Ferg rds 4 and 5 props.
     
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  3. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Not a bad line but I feel that Kattar is a slicker striker than both. Should be a close fight though. I think Moicano needs to wrestle here to give himself the best chance of winning.
     
  4. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    Kattars jab and boxing are very crisp and I would favour him slightly. But I think if Moicano tries to take it to the mat and while standing use his legkicks and movement to keep some distance he could get the W here.
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2018
  5. DarkneT

    DarkneT Big dick belt Platinum Member

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    Don't think I've ever been more confident in such a high profile fight

    If I had a million dollars I'd put it all on the Russian kid
     
  6. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

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    Maybe but he will lose in this fight. Catar is way more technical, Moicano is boring and overrated. Catar is a lock here
     
  7. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    [​IMG]
     
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  8. conscience

    conscience Orange Belt

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    I feel many people are overestimating Khabib. In his last two fights he put a beating on grounded strikers in Barbosa and MJ but in his previous fight against RDA he got control with almost no damage. I feel he will take down Tony but not against the fence and while Tony has a smaller chance of KO than Barbosa and MJ he will do much better than them off his back.
    So the question becomes will Khabib be able to maintain top control for a 5rd decision (the most likely outcome) or Tony will either surprise him in the stand up or from the bottom. I think the line is off, so Tony by finish is probably my bet if I can get that @+400 or better
     
  9. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

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    Dude Moicano is boring and nothing special. Calvin smoked Burgos in his last fight! Moicano is a easier fight .
     
  10. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    I think if Moicano comes in with a smart gameplan he can win this one. Try to take this to the mat and use his jiu-jitsu and while standing use his legkicks and movement to stay out of boxing range.

    If Moicano comes in wreckless and doesn't respect Kattars boxing, he's going to get pieced up.

    But this is definitely not a lock!
     
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  11. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

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    I respect such opinion
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    SMH.

    Against a guy on a 10 fight win streak against the best of the division. Can I see Khabib being favored? Sure. But people just stop being objective so often.
     
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  13. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    Re: Moicano vs Kattar

    Kattar's bread and butter is his jab, which he snaps off beautifully with no telegraph. He was able to pick Burgos apart with it for the first round plus of their fight until Burgos adjusted by countering with his overhand right, inside leg kicks and left hooks to the body. Kattar also possesses a powerful straight right, which setup the finish for him against Burgos and had Fili hurt at the end of round 2. I'm also impressed with his fight IQ. The first round of the Fili fight was a toss up until Kattar took advantage of a slip, landed a takedown, and followed up with some gnp to secure the round. Similarly, round 2 was also very close until Kattar turned it up in the final ten seconds, landing some of the most signficant strikes of the fight. He's also shown strong TDD (he stays balanced and rarely over extends on his punches), a solid chin and excellent cardio.

    Moicano is extremely well rounded. He's faced four very different stylistic matchups in his UFC fights and he's been able to adapt his gameplan nicely to each of them. He has fast hands, he mixes up combinations to the head/body and often finishes with a kick. He's obviously a credentialed grappler and from the little we've seen of on him on the ground in the UFC, he looks to be very slick there. Outside of the ill advised shot in round 3 against Ortega, he's been able to mix in some nice reactive takedowns, particularly in the Stephens fight. One thing to keep in mind regarding the end of the Ortega fight is that Moicano's nose was clearly broken about a minute into round 1. I think the combination of dealing with that, Ortega's relentless pressure and ridiculous chin caused Moicano to make a bad decision there.

    Kattar does have a few weaknesses that I think Moicano can capitalize on. For one, Kattar is vunerable to leg kicks and Moicano possesses excellent inside and outside low kicks from both stances. Stephens mobility was clearly comprised in the third round of his fight with Moicano. Against Kattar, Fili was having good success with leg kicks in the first round and they were also a big part of what Burgos was able to do in round two. Going to back to his pre-UFC days, Gabriel Baino battered Kattar's legs late in the fight, knocking him down once and forcing him to switch stances at times. Secondly, When Kattar has been backed up, he isn't nearly as effective. With his in and out approach he needs room to work and when he's been pressured back to the cage his opponents have been able to take advantage. I'd like to see Moicano take the opposite approach to what he did in the Stephens fight, be aggressive here and put Kattar on his back foot.

    Overall, I think Kattar is being given a little bit too much respect and I feel Moicano should be a small favorite. You have to be impressed with Kattar's first two UFC fights, but they were both very competitive contests and Moicano is a step up from both Fili and Burgos in my opinion. I also think that Moicano has faced the higher level of competition both inside and outside the UFC. I think he has the tools to give Kattar problems and he does enough here to win a close decision.
     
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  14. Larthus

    Larthus White Belt

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    I like you but your shilling of Ferguson is going to lose people money. Stop this madness. Don't bet low % props when you can just join the smesh and parlay Khabib with someone else for a good payout
     
  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Ha ha let's see:

    My long term record of success or the new guy's proclamations, which do I trust here? Hmm...

    Oh and for the record, BY FAR my biggest action on this fight is NOT Khabib by decision. So I will win a lot even if Khabib finishes Ferg.

    Basically, I know what I'm doing so please save your nonsense. People here trust my insight far more than yours.
     
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  16. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Disagree. Tony takes a ton of chances. And he pushes a frenetic pace. Way better chance he finishes Khabib or that he gets stuck in a really bad spot because he takes a chance he shouldn't.

    I remember this one time I tried SO hard to make everyone $ by telling them that Gall would easily finish CM Punk in round 1. I mean, you weren't around then but imagine how much $ you'd have made!;)
     
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  17. DarkneT

    DarkneT Big dick belt Platinum Member

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    Cmon dude
    Don't be 'that' guy

    We both know styles make fights
    And in this fight Tony is FUCKED

    Castillo controlled him..
    Let that sink in
     
  18. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    How long ago was that? In a fight where Tony did more actual damage.

    You are "that guy" here, not me. I look at things objectively. Which is why, again, I have the biggest action on NOT Khabib Dec. I think someone gets finished here. I may even SLIGHTLY favor Khabib. But I can look at odds and find value.

    You saying "if I had a million bucks I'd put it on the Russian kid" really REALLY does make you "that guy".

    No offense.
     
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  19. DarkneT

    DarkneT Big dick belt Platinum Member

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    Maybe it does

    But I don't care, I know an easy play when I see one
    And if I wanna add a little comedic effect to my posts, I will.

    Tony is going to try his tooty fruity Eddie bravo bullshit here from the bottom and he's gunna get crushed
    I honestly think Edson was a tougher fight for Khabib than Tony
    And don't get me wrong
    I love Tony, he's awesome but it's styles and fights and in this one I think he's screwed
    But let's roll
     
  20. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Okay but you realize if Khabib finishes Tony I'm gonna make bank right? I'll lose my ML bet on Ferg but I have way more on NOT Khabib decision. So if Khabib just smashes Ferg and Tony doesn't survive I still am up huge on this fight.

    I'm looking at it objectively. As tough as Tony is, he's not gonna be content to lay there while Kabbib holds hikm down. Tony is a risk taker. He will either get stuck in a really bad spot by taking risks, or he'll get back to his feet or possibly put Khabib in jeopardy.

    And if Khabib has to work really hard for 3 rounds my guess is that Tony's cardio takes over late.

    Bottom line: I'd rather pay the -175 I paid to cover every outcome besides Khabib Dec (so Khabib itd, Tony itd, or Tony dec) than pay -235 on Khabib's ML. No brainer to me.
     
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