UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    Yeah she didn't tap to strikes and it was all her nutritionists fault. ;)

    Maybe something was wrong with her, but how many fighters go into a fight with a bad weight cut or little injuries or whatever.

    Sounds like me like she is making a whole lot of excuses and blaming everyone but herself.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
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  2. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Could very well be the case. I know a lot of the time women have really rough time cutting a significant amount of weight and 14 pounds in 14 hours (I think that's what JJ said she cut this last time) would be murder to almost anyone. Lightning doesn't strike twice right? Hey at least if you're looking to get JJ you're getting a remarkable price this time around ;)
     
  3. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    You seem to have it all figured out. And yea, JJ has a big history of making excuses and getting KOd like that. And Rose has KOd many opponents. its not at all possible that something was very off here
     
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  4. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    Dudes in here would have bet their life savings on JJ at this price the first fight. Now there are dudes in here saying they see no way JJ can win

    It's not like Rose dominated her for 2 or 3 rounds. She got her FIRST TKO quickly against an opponent never stopped by strikes
     
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  5. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    I'm just saying she could have handled everything a lot better and I think by complaining and making excuses she puts a lot more pressure on herself for this next fight!

    I think the 2nd fight is going to be much closer and harder fought though. I can see JJ putting the pressure on Rose and outstriking her, but I can also see it going a similar way as last fight or Rose winning by sub. So for me Rose at + money is still the way to go.
     
  6. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Agreed. I backed Rose the first time (100$ degen ML bet lol) and I'm taking a chance at her ITD line this time but I'm not confident in it and I'm actually considering a JJ play. Rose' s path to victory hasn't changed imo she needs a finish to win and the short time they were on the ground in the first fight JJ defended and got up really well. Although Rose said she let her up to stick to the gameplan. Not mad at any JJ plays though.
     
  7. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    This situation reminds me of Cain vs. JDS. First time Cain was injured and got ko’d in R1. He came back healthy and gave JDS two five round beatings.
     
  8. northsofia

    northsofia Orange Belt

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    The difference is that Cain didnt tap to strikes, he was badly knocked out
     
  9. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Yeah. Sometimes fighters just come out flat, get put on the back foot and lose. People forget exactly how much variance there is in UFC careers, since we really don't actually know that much about most fighters.

    Most dudes are vulnerable to flash KOs in the first minute or so, till their jitters settle. We've seen it a ton in UFC history how guys who are usually durable/capable of scrambling through shitty situations can get sparked in the first minute and just fall down since their focus gets broken.

    The longest somebody's spent in the cage is just less than 7 hours, we'll literally know more than that about most Basketball players by the end of 10 games. Momentum is also massively important in the fight game, stuff like Hernandez cheap-shotting Dariush to take the initiative and never relinquishing it does happen occasionally.

    I also find people tend to overvalue protracted TKOs versus straight KOs a lot of the time. Dudes are usually 'done' at the same point, but an extra minute of GnP on a functionally defenseless fighter can change how a fight's remembered.
     
  10. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    True, but I think some driven people can need an outside reason/excuse to keep going and retain selfconfidence after losses. Cain had it in injury and JJ has it in weight cut problems. Even if it’s 90% delusion it can work. Placebo effect is real if you believe in it. Barao had no excuse for getting a beating from Dillashaw. He just found out, that his style was outdated. He has not looked any good since and took another beating in rematch. I have currently money on Rose and still give her psychological edge for sure, but I’m not sure it’s worth current odds unless there are good stylistic arguments to back it up.
     
  11. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    ^^^^^Fantastic points @Gugabe

    To add to it, I think the "She tapped to strikes" is getting overblown a bit. Is it a great look? No. But it's not like if someone taps to strikes they all of a sudden lose all the skills that made them successful in the first place. She got stung, and badly. Ate some really good gnp (which I honestly didn't know Rose was capable of). At some point she could have felt her brain shutting down and her body unable to respond. Or...maybe she hadn't really been hurt before and just panicked instead of trying to latch on and survive.

    Either way, I think it's a huge mistake to take that one thing and use it as some sort of lynchpin in capping the rematch. If anything, the fact that Rose used her hands so effectively prior to the stoppage is what I'd focus on if I were going to be betting Rose this time. Prior to the first fight the general consensus was that Rose would be completely overmatched standing, but had a great shot if she could get it to the mat and overcome JJ's TDD. Well, Rose showed she wasn't scared to throw with JJ and looked damn good in lighting her up (maybe against a JJ that was "off", not sure).

    I'm still deciding how to play this fight honestly, but JJ tapping to strikes is more a sidenote to me than anything. It's definitely not something I'm gonna focus on in figuring out how to bet the rematch.
     
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  12. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    All great points gentlemen. I'm just interested to see how everyone plays the fight. To kind of throw a wrench at the discussion though, hasn't JJ remarked on how tough her weight it on multiple occasions besides this last one? This one was the tough one that got her laid out? Skepticism on. It's all speculative I guess so it's hard to put stock in any of that news. Hard to argue the flash ko point too. Tapping to strikes means fuck all to me in this case and isn't relative to capping the fight. Idk just throwing some thoughts out there.
     
  13. NaughtyBoy

    NaughtyBoy Red Belt

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    Nop, why ?
     
  14. NaughtyBoy

    NaughtyBoy Red Belt

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    <{fry}>
     
  15. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    The Rose and JJ fight reminds me a lot of the Dillashaw/Barao fight. Dillashaw as a massive underdog in their first fight. Rematch odds opened similarly to the JJ/Rose rematch but with Dillashaw opening as the slight favourite at the opener.
    People argued that Barao would make the adjustments in the rematch but Dillawshaw with his footwork and use of angles gave was a bad matchup for Barao and probably some other variables related to Barao losing too.

    Even though it was a quick/flash ko in round 1 of their fight and the fight was pretty close up until the knockout, Rose matches up really well against JJ and even though it was only 1 round, she seemed to hold her own in the striking department where she was suppose to be at a big disadvantage and most people thought her only path to victory was on the ground with a submission.
     
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  16. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    Shame. I was looking forward to this fight.
     
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  17. NorthernLights

    NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    What's going on with this guy? Is he on some watch list?
     
  18. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    ffs
     
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  19. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    On Betsafe the lines for this came out and NOT Khabib DEC is -222 / 1.45 and FDNGD is -244 / 1.41 lol.

    So I took NOT Khabib DEC off course. :) Still value at -222 / 1.45 in my opinion.
     
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  20. Tebowned

    Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    This is getting ridiculous! Cut him and let us watch him in AcB. He's wasting his prime with this work visa bullshit.
     
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