UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by greenmouse, Mar 6, 2018.

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  1. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    So far I’m on all dogs except Moicano. Even though Ortega is the signed contender now, it was a hard loss to recover from. Moicano’s game failed in several levels. First his fight iq failed him. He underestmated Ortega’s striking developement and did not adjust even after it was evident after R1. His chin started to fail him in R3 and he was forced to adjust to fight on back foot. Then his nerves failed him when crowd started booing and finally the sub defence failed after hasty and desperate shoot. I really hope he recovers well, but I can’t bet at it at these odds.
     
  2. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Well people caught on and blew up that NOT Khabib Dec line a bit. It's -210 now. Do NOT bet it at that price as FDNGD is at -190 now. Play that instead obviously if you are thinking this ends itd.

    Edit: maybe Not Khabib Dec is still a better bet, I was thinking about it wrong. But odds now steeper on both. Still value imo, but it's shrinking.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
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  3. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    So I’m on thug rose pretty big here, ml and itd

    Also On not jj itd

    This fight might last a round or two longer but I see it finishing the same way

    Don’t like what i hear out of jj. Excuses, denial

    She always has tough cuts. This one may have been the worst and her chin gave out a little quicker but I don’t see a lot changing for this fight except for rose being in jjs head even more

    I thought Johanna would absolutely tool rose first time around. Not making that mistake again. Johanna Doesnt have a great chin and she’s going to get caught.

    Tapping to strikes not a good look

    Rose retains and then I get dog price for andrade
     
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  4. northsofia

    northsofia Orange Belt

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    How can people bet a fighter who tapped to strikes in general...
     
  5. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    Me to already have 5 units on Rose, still waiting for props.

    Think this fight is going to be much harder fought though. I can see Joana get the W here, but 2,5 / +150 for Rose who just whooped her last November is just to great of an opportunity to pass up on.

    At what odds did you cap Rose ITD if I may ask? I see on Bestfightodds that it's only 3,06 / +206 now.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  6. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    i still feel nauseous when i think of my rose sub bet not cashing.
     
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  7. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    If it goes 5 rounds I’d have to think it favors Johanna.

    I think the itd prop at over +200 has value, especially when the ml is sitting around +125

    I would be very surprised to see rose outpoint Johanna in a 5 round fight
     
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  8. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

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    Rose is a nice dog, thats True. I like Felice also, last time I bet her when everyone was here on Cortney :) I will pick her this time also. Felice should win this with her wrestling. Will be a nice fight
     
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  9. Karmello

    Karmello Blue Belt

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    Yeah definitely not likely.
     
  10. NaughtyBoy

    NaughtyBoy Red Belt

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    Who the hell is Renato Carneiro and Calvin Kattar ? why those guys in the main card ?
     
  11. NaughtyBoy

    NaughtyBoy Red Belt

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    Totally for real... I know that some unknown fighters can bang and deliver for obvious reasons when they come to the big league... Many Performances of the Night awards had been earned in the prelims... But, that doesn't mean that they deserve to be above of other well stablished fighters.

    Cool that they're exciting fighter in your opinion, but I would take Borg vs Moreno as a better match up than that one for a much attractive main card anytime.
     
  12. NaughtyBoy

    NaughtyBoy Red Belt

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    I will watch them. But still, not that happy for having them in the main card.
     
  13. lilbloaty

    lilbloaty Orange Belt

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    umm that's one of the best fights of the year sir
     
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  14. El Jefe The Don

    El Jefe The Don Banned Banned

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    Trying to see a path for JJ to win and I just don't see it. There's no adjustments she can make.
     
  15. MacPherson911

    MacPherson911 street walkin' cheetah with a heart full of napalm

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    you an MMA gambler bruh?
     
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  16. chemmy

    chemmy Blue Belt

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    I'm on Rose because of the price but that's a ridiculous statement.
     
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  17. greenmouse

    greenmouse White Belt

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    I was initially interested in Gruetzemacher because of how Lauzon looked against Guida but Gritz didn't look good against Ramos (or Skelly). He ate a ton with his pressure style combined with zero defence in round 1. Round 2 he had some success but was outstruck and Ramos was gassing a bit.
    That said Lauzon looked terrible standing against Ray (dominated round 1 on the ground though). So if Gritz can avoid the takedown I think he has it.
     
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  18. Naught2Sixty

    Naught2Sixty Purple Belt

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    I can't speak to how good Rose's range management looked against JJ. Almost every time JJ would try to hit her with a leg kick or counter with a jab Rose was just slighty out of the way. Testing her range with punches she would dart in and exit at an angle just before getting countered too. Dipping and feinting with the forward movement of her body to draw out an attack. Angles angles angles. I think Trevor Witttman has done an outstanding job with training this young woman. I'm very interested in how this fight will go this time. I expect it to be vastly more competitive .
    IMO I think Rose needs to come in with a more kick heavy gameplan this time around. I believe she needs to catch JJ plodding around and she can make her do that by hurting her calf. Haven't really seen anyone attack her calf yet. Shouldn't be too hard for a black belt in TKD to do right? I played Rose ITD for 2.5u. Rose NSC will be another play as well but thats about it for me here I think.
     
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  19. greenmouse

    greenmouse White Belt

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    Tempted by Pettis @ 1.80. Seems Pettis will win standing and has never been submitted (if you don't count the Poirier fight). Still think Chiesa's only path to victory is submission.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2018
  20. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    I know it's unpopular. But I actually think there was something wrong with JJ that fight. I think she's being honest with what happened.
     
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