UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov
- Thread starter greenmouse
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I'm a casual now ... lol. And fuck that silly fight, still don't know shit about those kids... should be in the prelims.
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I feel like kattar has put it all together. His boxing is crisp. Great jab. High fight iq and he has the wrestling to keep the fight where he wants it.
My concern is that moicano will be able to stay out of range with leg kicks and be able to outwork him to a decision.
But against Ortega moicano was content to stay in the pocket. If he does this with kattar he’s going to get outboxed.
I would imagine kattar will be prepared for a leg kick heavy gameplan.
Should be a really good scrap
I’m on kattar -165
Kattar dec +160
Fgtd-170
My concern is that moicano will be able to stay out of range with leg kicks and be able to outwork him to a decision.
But against Ortega moicano was content to stay in the pocket. If he does this with kattar he’s going to get outboxed.
I would imagine kattar will be prepared for a leg kick heavy gameplan.
Should be a really good scrap
I’m on kattar -165
Kattar dec +160
Fgtd-170
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Chiesa sub +476 too.
Pettis is a pretty slick grappler, but look at his win vs Olives and his loss to DP. He is NOT afraid to try get mixed up in scrambles and take chances with his grappling. Chiesa sub hunts on the mat a lot. Would not be surprised if he taps Pettis in this fight.
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It wouldn’t be surprising. But, Chiesa is most dangerous from the back and Pettis is excellent at defending RNCs.
Pettis is also a big submission threat himself. I could easily see him jumping on a guillotine off one of Chiesa’s sloppy shots or hurting him on the feet first. I actually think Pettis sub could be equally or even more likely.
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I might have agreed before the DP fight. I think that if Chiesa is smart, he'll use that as the blueprint. Chiesa is the bigger, stronger guy. I think he can get top position and do some damage (though I'll admit I don't think his gnp is as good as DP's) and maybe force Pettis to give up his back.
But Pettis sub +432 maybe does have some value too? 5d doesn't have a "fight ends in sub" prop, so basically if you wanted that you'd just have to split your bet between the two guys. And at that point you are only getting about +225 or so. Not sure if it's worth it...
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I agree with all of that. I was just saying that both guys can win by sub.
I think it's important for Pettis to be aggressive here. He needs to be the one coming forward, similar to how he fought against Miller. Dariush was had a lot of success with his low kicks in the first round against Chiesa as well. If Pettis backs up to the cage like he has a tendency to do he's going to have problems imo. Chiesa's wrestling isn't the best and he'll have a much harder time taking down Pettis in open space than he will against the fence.
It's a tough fight to call for me. I do favor Chiesa slightly because I'm not confident that Pettis will be able to keep it standing. I wish I had gotten some down on him when he was +140ish. Now I'm considering playing Chiesa decision small, because I think Pettis is good enough to survive on the ground.
You can also wait until BM releases the fight ends in submission prop late. They usually offer props for fight ends in KO, fight ends in submission and fight ends in decision the day before or day of the fight.
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I’m in love w JJ at -145. Would have bet my whole roll, life savings and exhausted my borrowing power if that price had been available the first time around.
I’m also big on Khabib, maybe subconsciously bc I had 2 or 3 units on Barboza and then I watched khabib take at least 2 or 3 years off his life in that fight.
I’m also big on Khabib, maybe subconsciously bc I had 2 or 3 units on Barboza and then I watched khabib take at least 2 or 3 years off his life in that fight.
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They are both around +450 give or take. (Pettis +432 and Chiesa +476).
You're getting better than +177 unless my brain has completely gone into hibernation (which is admittedly possible).
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Obviously you are using hyperbole, but I cannot envision any scenario where I'd even risk my whole BR (forget about the other stuff you said LOL) on an MMA fight. No matter how much I loved the line. I honestly probably capped John Jones around -2500 vs Chael, and he was actually available at around -600. I simply could not envision how he'd lose. Chael was smaller, didn't have enough power to hurt Jones, and couldn't even match Jones in the only area Chael used to excel (wrestling). I used Jones as parlay fodder a bit, but didn't overextend.
That fight went EXACTLY how I thought it would (and probably how everyone else thought it would too). Jones dismantled him. But had Chael made it out of the round, he'd have won the fight by TKO. No way would Jones have been allowed to continue with his toe the way it was. And all my expertise and capping Jones as a 20 or 25 to 1 favorite would have all gone up in smoke. Weird stuff happens, and more often than you think. So the point is, you gotta stay sane. There's nothing wrong with going big on a line you love, but don't get carried away.
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Fights I like and how I seem them ending!!!!!!
Nurmagdemov-Dec
Joanna-Dec
Carneiro-Decision
Pettis-Sub2
Iaquinta-Dec
Herrig-Dec
Borg-Dec
Lauzon-Dec
Dunham-Dec
Caceres-Dec
Rawlings-Sub2
Clark-Dec
Zabit-Sub2
Nurmagdemov-Dec
Joanna-Dec
Carneiro-Decision
Pettis-Sub2
Iaquinta-Dec
Herrig-Dec
Borg-Dec
Lauzon-Dec
Dunham-Dec
Caceres-Dec
Rawlings-Sub2
Clark-Dec
Zabit-Sub2
I'd be very surprised if Bec Rawlings submits AES or even beats her for that matter. Ashlee has been subbed by Racquel Pennington and Sarah Moras at bantamweight, but I think she'll be bigger, stronger and be able to handle anything Bec can throw at her in this flyweight bout where Rawlings has only recently moved up in weight from 115 pounds and Ashlee is moving down from 135 pounds.
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AES vs Bec is a big pass. Both suck big time
I have a stronger lean on this bout that some of the other fights on the card, price dependent of course, which remains to be seen.
piglord
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ashlee, for all her lack of striking ability, is an all american wrestler and big strong girl.
bec is just a pure can and has mainly won fights but outmuscling smaller opponents. she won't have that advantage anymore. she's done in the ufc. you could see her tough girl act fall apart in between rounds on the stool last time, think she crumbles here.
bec is just a pure can and has mainly won fights but outmuscling smaller opponents. she won't have that advantage anymore. she's done in the ufc. you could see her tough girl act fall apart in between rounds on the stool last time, think she crumbles here.
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Im betting Thug Rose. I had concerns about JJ's chin prior the Rose fight now I have severe concerns. Dropped by Rose twice inside three minutes is massively concerning when Rose isn't a big hitter. Dropped by Claudia twice and rocked badly by KK in prior fights. Another tough weight cut to endure which doesn't help that chin. I don't buy all this better weight cut stuff, it's a horrid cut for her always has been and it's catching up with her. She's also only five months removed by fight time from being ktfo - possibly taking this a bit too soon. But something that i think will really play a factor here is i think JJ is going to be hesitant. She's gonna be very worried about Thug Rose's power and i think this will affect her normal style. I'm really hoping Rose reminds her of that power early and that pushes JJ into a shell. £1250 on Rose so far at around +150.
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Yeah and You would end bancrupt
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