UFC 222 - Edgar vs Ortega - Vegas

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t6p said:
This. I was planning to stab Kunitskaya pre-tape but now I think she's going to get run over. I didn't see anything that makes me think she can give Cyborg any trouble whatsoever.
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Any thoughts about over? I took o1.5/2.5 1u each at 2.8/4.0 and have a meager hedge of Cyborg sub R2 at 19.0. On paper this seems like a ok bet, but I just really hate betting overs so thinking about this play is almost making me sick.
 
mrbaapt said:
Zingano has been inactive but there is no tougher woman in the UFC. She put it on Amanda Nunes late and made Miesha look like an amateur. If she had not been overzealous she would have smashed Rousey before Holm did.
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I was with you until that last sentence. One-dimensional or not, Rousey would handle Zingano nearly every time. Cat doesn't have the skill-set to stay standing and piece her up.
 
chemmy said:
I was with you until that last sentence. One-dimensional or not, Rousey would handle Zingano nearly every time. Cat doesn't have the skill-set to stay standing and piece her up.
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Uh what? Rousey had garbage stand up her whole career.
 
Yotsuya said:
Any thoughts about over? I took o1.5/2.5 1u each at 2.8/4.0 and have a meager hedge of Cyborg sub R2 at 19.0. On paper this seems like a ok bet, but I just really hate betting overs so thinking about this play is almost making me sick.
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No feel one way or another really. Kunitskaya looks slow and hittable IMO. I don't see her as having near the footwork of a Holm and I don't know if she has the toughness of an Evinger. She does end up in the clinch a lot so maybe she can hold on for dear life the way Lansberg did. I'm not betting the fight at all.
 
mrbaapt said:
Zingano has been inactive but there is no tougher woman in the UFC. She put it on Amanda Nunes late and made Miesha look like an amateur. If she had not been overzealous she would have smashed Rousey before Holm did.
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Pass completely on this fight for me. No time really spent capping it. Any bet by me would be based on my shaky memory of each fighter. I'd be dumb to put $ on this fight.
 
mrbaapt said:
Uh what? Rousey had garbage stand up her whole career.
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Ronda's striking was basically non-existent (aside from the Correia fight) but Zingano would never keep it standing longer than 10 seconds. That's not her style.
 
mrbaapt said:
Uh what? Rousey had garbage stand up her whole career.
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That's not what he means. The point I assume he's making is that to beat Rousey you have to be able to control distance while hitting her with strikes that matter. Like I said, I'd need to rewatch some of Cat's fights, but if her distance control isn't good, she'd inevitably get stuck in the clinch with Rousey, tossed, and subbed.
 
People betting Zingano really need to watch the tape. She'd be 0-4 in the UFC if the 2 girls she beat had any cardio. She's from the early days of wmma where if you're above average in any one area you could go far. She's a one-dimensional wrestler that only lands TDs if she can get the bodylock.
 
It seems to me calling Ortegas finishes opportunistic would be an understatement. In the Carneiro fight, Ortegas rd3 pressure forced Carneiro to stupidly shoot a takedown leading to the guillotine. In the Guida fight, his rd 3 pressure gave him the opportunity to take advantage of Guida ducking his head at break neck speeds while trapped against the cage. In the Brandao fight, Brandao stayed in his guard in rd 3 for no good reason. His opponents have to make critical mistakes first that may seem benign to them at the time, usually this wouldnt bother me when talking about Edgar but the takedown is ingrained in his game. He has gotten takedowns in every fight since 2011 except against Maynard 3(he attempted 11), Aldo 2(he attempted 11) and Mendes(Edgar KOed him in under 3minutes but still attempted a takedown lol). When I was watching the Mendes fight, 1 of the commentators said Edgar has the 3rd most takedowns in UFC history behind GSP and Tibau. Then Edgar is a high level grappler himself which you would think would be good but it's really not because Edgar may actually try to grapple with Ortega for short periods. I have other apprehensions as well, Ortegas reach and his rd 3 being a couple. I think Edgar might be a trap, looking like easy money, parlay material then he gets choked out. I got him marked as a vulnerable favorite.

To say some positives about Edgar, his knee tap is not as vulnerable, can be used to mix his striking as he loves to do and he likely wont be ducking into a knee.
 
I actually think Frankie SHOULD wrestle in this fight but he has to be careful ofc. Once he gets to half guard he's gonna put a beating on Ortega.
 
Zingano last win was 4 years ago. This is a typical “changing of the guard” just like Ottow vs Pyle
 
My friend just won 2000 dollars on soccer so I need to make some juicy bets tonight to one up him.

I really like Caraway and O’Malley tonight
 
No talk about the Milstead/Johnson u2.5 at slight + odds and/or DNGD? I know Johnson isn't the most potent finisher, but Milstead has never even seen R3. I can see a finish in this fight materializing in a a few different ways. Most likely Milstead early and Johnson late.
 
Agent Mulder said:
I actually think Frankie SHOULD wrestle in this fight but he has to be careful ofc. Once he gets to half guard he's gonna put a beating on Ortega.
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Same here. I think Ortega going for broke standing is just as dangerous. I think Frankie should be mixing it up, and I honestly could see him outgrappling Ortega.
 
got 3 friends fighting amateur muay thai tonight so I'm probably gonna miss the entire card. pissed I even bet on it If I can't watch, might catch the last 2-3 fights if I hurry home.
 
Hard to bet on a guy that won by faking an injury to the back of his head
 
Does 5d still offer reduced lines? I can't see them but bestfightodds has zingano at +180 and I'm getting +170?
 
Gametheory said:
Does 5d still offer reduced lines? I can't see them but bestfightodds has zingano at +180 and I'm getting +170?
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yep i have that option. you clicked on 'reduced' under 'fighting', right?
 
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