UFC 221 - Rockhold vs Romero - Australia

[TheOneTrueKing]

Gotta question bens iq. Wtf was he even on the ground with smolka. Easy win on the feet. I'll have fun bet on him here anyways

 

[Naterade]

what makes you think that? he was tooled on the ground by smolka

I wouldn't say he was tooled, more so unprepared for the pace/how the fight played out and maybe underestimated Smolka. Smolkas scrambling abilities are actually crazy, has super crafty/unorthodox sub attempts, and is deceivingly strong with the massive height/reach advantage. That was one of Smoklas best performances and granted Ben did look like shit that night.

Ben should be coming into this fight well prepared and knowing exactly what to expect.

 

[mkess101]

I wouldn't say he was tooled, more so unprepared for the pace/how the fight played out and maybe underestimated Smolka. Smolkas scrambling abilities are actually crazy, has super crafty/unorthodox sub attempts, and is deceivingly strong with the massive height/reach advantage. That was one of Smoklas best performances and granted Ben did look like shit that night.

Ben should be coming into this fight well prepared and knowing exactly what to expect.

Uhh, yeah, he was tooled. Smolka completely dominated him grappling. It looked like a complete mismatch.

If your opinion is that Ben has improved a lot, that's fair. But he wasn't just overpowered physically by Smolka, he was technically dominated too. Smolka was 2 moves ahead of him the entire time, and easily transitioned to dominant positions where he proceeded to lay waste to Ben.

I'm not saying that absolutely means that Formiga runs through him on the mat here, but at the very least it better give a lot of pause to anyone contemplating a bet on Ben. If Formiga gets him down, Ben had better figure out quickly how to scramble back to his feet or he's gonna be playing catch up again and most likely have his back taken. Ben needs to sprawl n brawl here, and do everything he possibly can to keep it standing. If he's able to do that, he should win. If not, he's in trouble.

 

[JBJISGOAT]

Li -160 + Rock -150 for 2 units.

 

[Gugabe]

Li KO's great.

Surprisingly tempted by Tui-Asker GTD @ +600. I don't trust either's gas tank, and I think it's one of those classic 'KO1 or dec' HW fights.

 

[vkram]

Li KO's great.

Surprisingly tempted by Tui-Asker GTD @ +600. I don't trust either's gas tank, and I think it's one of those classic 'KO1 or dec' HW fights.

Could be but Tuivasa didn't looked gassed before he finished Coulter at the end of round 1.

 

[Gugabe]

Could be but Tuivasa didn't looked gassed before he finished Coulter at the end of round 1.

Coulter wasn't doing much. It's only a small stab, but I just feel like we could get 'Tui does something stupid and ends up under Asker for half of the first, both just kinda stumble around for 2 rounds and Tui wins a split that's probably a robbery but nobody cares enough to complain about'.

 

[bllandzz]

Coulter wasn't doing much. It's only a small stab, but I just feel like we could get 'Tui does something stupid and ends up under Asker for half of the first, both just kinda stumble around for 2 rounds and Tui wins a split that's probably a robbery but nobody cares enough to complain about'.

I'l eat my words here if he gases and loses but Tuivasa was playing pro rugby before mma.. He knows what level he needs to be to succeed on the big stage, can't see this being any different.

 

[bllandzz]

Do not rate Asker's striking here at all. His gym has a few vids on insta from the last few days training pad work Bushidoacademie.. No movement, no pivoting, all round ratshit striking. Tuivasa is on another level.

*edit for link to insta page.

 

[Gugabe]

I'l eat my words here if he gases and loses but Tuivasa was playing pro rugby before mma.. He knows what level he needs to be to succeed on the big stage, can't see this being any different.

He was on a second tier league team and didn't even start. I'm a fan of Rugby backgrounds, I was picked for Aus Schoolboys but broke my ankle pretour, but DILLIGAF unless they played NRL or NZ Super Rugby.

 

[bllandzz]

He was on a second tier league team and didn't even start. I'm a fan of Rugby backgrounds, I was picked for Aus Schoolboys but broke my ankle pretour, but DILLIGAF unless they played NRL or NZ Super Rugby.

Fair, it was a few years ago he was playing rugby. If anything he's still got that rugby mentality from years ago to be performance fit. On top of that he's been in fight camp for 8 weeks, training twice a day and training with big boys. Unless he has a brainfart and goes 100% in the first round (which he didn't do in his debut) it's hard to see him gassing.

 

[Gugabe]

Fair, it was a few years ago he was playing rugby. If anything he's still got that rugby mentality from years ago to be performance fit. On top of that he's been in fight camp for 8 weeks, training twice a day and training with big boys. Unless he has a brainfart and goes 100% in the first round (which he didn't do in his debut) it's hard to see him gassing.

Yeah. I'm not saying GTD is a lock, just a feeling I've got about this fight. I just distrust the 'other sports' narrative, since I also remember somebody telling me that Pedro'd dominate Latifi since 'SAMOANS ARE TOUGH, BRU'.

Also kind of liking Safarov as a dog against Pedro. I'm not sold on Pedro at all and I think Safarov could just consistently be the aggressor and pull off a split here.

 

[onC]

Havent you people watched Tuivasa vs McSweeney? That was less than 1.5 years ago. Tuivasa was absolutely gassed at the end of the first round, and his "game" was falling apart way before that.

I think he's alot better now, but there's no guarantees on what happens if everything doesnt go as planned (R1 KO).

 

[Sham5916910]

Havent you people watched Tuivasa vs McSweeney? That was less than 1.5 years ago. Tuivasa was absolutely gassed at the end of the first round, and his "game" was falling apart way before that.

I think he's alot better now, but there's no guarantees on what happens if everything doesnt go as planned (R1 KO).

I won't be shocked if Tua gasses but one thing I have learned is you have to be very careful capping people based off pre UFC performances unless they are Bojan or Devin Powell bad. Most look a lot better when they enter the UFC. Tua injured his knee pretty badly in the McSweeney fight so that's something to bear in mind. He is very young so he should be improving fight to fight at this stage. The year layoff seemed to pay dividends as he looked much better against Coulter and so did his cardio.

 

[raketmannen]

u2.5 on Ben/Formiga up to +145, both of them are finishers and Ben has been flakey in the past, most of his losses are TKOs though and Formiga is not a big threat in that department. Will make a small bet on it if the price gets even better

Feels like there have been more finishes in flyweight as of late

 

[mkess101]

u2.5 on Ben/Formiga up to +145, both of them are finishers and Ben has been flakey in the past, most of his losses are TKOs though and Formiga is not a big threat in that department. Will make a small bet on it if the price gets even better

Feels like there have been more finishes in flyweight as of late

If Formiga takes his back (something Formiga is very adept at) Ben could well be F'd. Be it sub or that Formiga flattens Ben out and pounds away (or Ben rolls and ends up mounted like he did vs Smolka) I think Formiga finishing is very possible.

On the flipside, if Ben can keep it standing he definitely can tee off on Formiga. I don't hate the u2.5 at these odds at all. Might play it too, or DNGD. Good call.

 

[Gugabe]

u2.5 on Ben/Formiga up to +145, both of them are finishers and Ben has been flakey in the past, most of his losses are TKOs though and Formiga is not a big threat in that department. Will make a small bet on it if the price gets even better

Feels like there have been more finishes in flyweight as of late

+145 is a little steep for FLWs, IMO. I'm probably gonna play Formiga ITD, though. I kinda don't rate Nguyen's finishing that highly despite his record. I think Elliott just went full retard there, and that Formiga's tough enough to take getting outstruck if he gets caught on the feet.

Main way I see this finishing is a Formiga RNC.

 

[barrygood1]

Life is good.

Spoiler

Placed a 5 figure bet on the superbowl

Last 2 UFC events I've provided free picks

+11.35 Units

Not gonna lie. Subscribers to Barry's handicapping service are pissed I'm offering so many freeplays. Gonna have to reign in the number of free picks I offer. Hold up though. Still gonna give my Sherdog peeps a few gems here n there. Have my place as the premier handicapping legend here. Make no mistake that there's not another handicapper that can go toe to toe with the great 1. #gretzky

Ya'll know the drill. 20 likes and I do what I do like no other i.e BANG WINNERS
Will cap the entire UFC 221 card if the like threshold is met. I extract value and I make money in the long run. It don't get any simpler than that folks.

- Barry

 

[stretcharmstrong]

There are at least 5 posters in here I’d take advice from over you Barry.

Please can you quit this stupid gimmick now?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I kind of like barry. Reminds me of when I used to stay up late watching info-mercials. Set it and forget it!