UFC 220 - Miocic vs Ngannou - Boston

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 29, 2017.

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  1. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    After touting the NOT DC sub line, I'm gonna take some guaranteed profit. Added to it last night when it dropped down to -161, which just seemed kinda nuts to me. But given that I agree with what a lot of you guys pointing out that it IS the most likely scenario, I'm just gonna take my guaranteed profit and play DC sub +195. Maybe I'll regret being a pussy on this one, but guaranteed $ is guaranteed $. If the line takes another crazy swing, maybe I jump back on it.
     
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  2. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I missed most of the discussion last night, but I think DC is pretty likely to get a late sub here if Volk gives up his back. I also think DCs been throwing some heat lately, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him land on Volk standing and then GnP.
     
  3. thesharktank

    thesharktank Purple Belt

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    If Volkan can stuff TDs in any round I feel like the judges will be leaning towards him simply because of the perceived strenghts and gameplans of both fighters.
     
  4. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    Yea. I laid the juice

    Also DC over 1.5 & Barroso

    On Page in Bellator
     
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  5. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Yeah it was good discussion. I agreed that the most likely outcome was DC sub, but was just arguing that the line was way off. At one point DC sub was +121 and DC KO/TKO was +374. Like you said, wouldn't be shocking at all to see DC finish via TKO. Yeah, sub is more likely, but at that point odds were saying it ws over THREE TIMES as likely, which was baffling to me. His sub line is +195 now, which I think is more in line with the actual % he gets it.
     
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  6. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    If i hadnt played the decision line already, I would have probably bet the +195 sub line tbh
     
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  7. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Yeah I can see that. I still don't think it screams value, but I don't think it's a bad bet either. I was just shocked people were betting it at +136 all the way down to +121.
     
  8. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Barroso +4.5 -165. According to live chat it's not an error
     
  9. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    Wow. I like it
     
  10. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Is there realy much difference between +3.5 and +4.5? Id rather play a less juiced +3.5
     
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  11. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Only if 10-8s come into play. They just reset it to +3.5 -160, maxing again.
     
  12. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Maybe a little more under the new rules where 10-8 are more frequent, but yeah there aren't many scores where that one point would matter really.

    I don't even remember if MA has adapted the new rules either.
     
  13. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    i know villante isn't the most cut guy in the world but didn't he look particularly bad at the official weigh in, even by his standards?
     
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  14. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    got a main play this week? nice call on stephens! $$$
     
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  15. TheOneTrueKing

    TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    tks ez. im liking the price now. fkn ortiz has ended up in my draftkings cash team so prob have to skip him now. dk annoying like that. 2 profitable bets so should play them both but never know what to cheer 4 then. will def play tibau. stipe makes sense for a small play. if the lines wrong it must be that way. cormier my main play this week.
     
  16. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Tibau was popped for EPO, right? I wonder if his gas tank is going to be drastically different tonight
     
  17. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Tim tibau up to +260

    I hit his +3.5 line at +110
     
  18. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Green Belt

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    I just smashed +260 and +255

    Even if he's completely washed like 20% of the time this is still a good bet.
     
  19. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    I couldn’t find +260 anywhere. They pulled his reduced line. Only saw +250


    Edit: nm its back
     
  20. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    Prettymuch. Islam taking a huge step up, and Tibau doesn't look like he's lost his PEDs.
     
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