UFC 220 - Miocic vs Ngannou - Boston

[2bet]

I am on Stipe.
I think Stipe will be in trouble. get hurt. overcome adversity. and suddenly finish fast.
something like that:

I also like Makhachev, got him at 1,57.
He is young and gritty and should take over after round 1 at least. Tibau won't be able to finish him and will gas/slow down/just hang in there.

Post Usada, post IV ban, getting up their in age, 2 years lay off - against a young and hungry guy in Makhachev, Sambo world champion, who has his eyes on the gold and will outhustle Tibau.
At least that's what I think

 

[mkess101]

I actually think this is gonna be a low submission night. No likely subs whatsoever till cormier.

I sure hope pantoja gets one cause I have 0.33u on it at +5xx, but that's the second-most likely sub tonight, imo..

None likely I agree, but 3-4 where it's at least reasonable one could happen. Add in that there's always a surprise here and there and there's 9 fights prior to DC/Volkan, and I think the chances for at least one sub are okay.

It's funny though, last night when I was ranting about how off the line was, MORE money went in on DC sub. It dropped all the way to +121. I honestly can't think of any fights where Maia, Mir, Jacare, etc. had sub props that low. That's 45% probability that's how the fight ends. It's kinda insane.

Now, it looks like some people came to their senses. DC sub spiked all the way back to up +195. I wasn't too deep into NOT DC sub anyway, but now the line is more realistic. I do think it's the most likely scenario, so will probably throw this +195 in a couple RR's.

 

[BobsyaUncle]

I honestly can't think of any fights where Maia, Mir, Jacare, etc. had sub props that low.

Jacare/Boetsch (-150)
Jacare/Belfort (-105)
Jacare/Camozzi 2 (-190)

 

[mkess101]

Jacare/Boetsch (-150)
Jacare/Belfort (-105)
Jacare/Camozzi 2 (-190)

I stand corrected ha ha.

But I stand by the fact that (in his prime) you have one of the best pure bjj/sub guys of all time with Jacare. DC has 4 total subs in his career, 2 vs a guy who was happy to give his neck to be able to get out of the cage.

But thanks for looking that up. Did any of those hit? I know it was a TKO vs Vitor.

 

[BobsyaUncle]

Did any of those hit? I know it was a TKO vs Vitor.

Yeah the other two hit.

 

[LEMONZEST]

lotta weak hairlines out there tonight boys be careful. Man if we ever needed insight from JB it is now.

 

[Bless]

@SBJJ did u end up betting Ngannou? And what are your other bets for tonight?

 

[iGnP]

@Oblivian how are you playing Stipe/Ngganou and DC/Volkan, bud

 

[Caicara]

Pantoja ML -139 5u
Barroso DEC +400 3u
Makachev ML + Burgos ML +100 - 5u

And a few parlays with Hassan ITD, Barzola DEC and Ngannou ITD with 2u total

 

[thesharktank]

I'd take my chances with Volkan covering up and being TKO'd at +375 over him giving up his neck at +121. More likely he gives up his neck in that scenario (with us not really knowing)? Yeah, I'd agree with that. Over THREE TIMES more likely? No way.

sooo much neck to take though.

 

[Caicara]

I also have a small bet on Death Touch Volkan after humbled and post-cry trauma DC

Volkan R1/2
And small action on that + Cormier 3/4/5/DEC

 

[Orion]

The fact he allegedly has the hardest punch ever recorded.

Come on, man....

 

[mkess101]

Come on, man....

I'm not saying i believe it...but you know some people do. We are talking hype and fear and aura right? Not necessarily reality...

 

[mkess101]

Ngannou fastest KO +290. This has way more value than his KO/TKO line at -141 imo. If he gets Stipe, it's most likely inside 2 rounds right? And this card overall doesn't look like one that (on paper anyway) will be stacked with finishes. Even if Francis gets Stipe in rd 2 this could cash. Putting a little something on it.

Small stabs at Pantoja/Ortiz +800 FOTN and Almeida/Font +575 FOTN. Was hoping for better odds for Almeida/Font (+700 at least) but I think it's honestly the most likely fight to be a crowd pleaser on this card.

 

[cagebrain]

Cormier -3.5 is -250 on 5D. Compared to his ML -325, no brainer. In what world does cormier win a close decision???

And yes, for some reason it's -3.5 not -5.5, so thats another thing in its favour

 

[mkess101]

Cormier -3.5 is -250 on 5D. Compared to his ML -325, no brainer. In what world does cormier win a close decision???

And yes, for some reason it's -3.5 not -5.5, so thats another thing in its favour

Yeah I was gonna comment on the -3.5. And I agree. Saving that juice is worth the tiny risk of him somehow eeking out a narrow decision win.

 

[Orion]

 

[Oblivian]

@Oblivian how are you playing Stipe/Ngganou and DC/Volkan, bud

Very comfortable in DC and moderately comfortable in fight doesn't go to decision. I think DC is going to get a finish, but I opted for the fight ITD as that is Volkan's only real chance here. Similar with Stipe/Ngannou, I have a play on Stipe but a couple fight doesn't start round 4 and 5 in parlays. Chalky plays obviously on the props, but I'd be very surprised if they lose.

 

[iGnP]

Very comfortable in DC and moderately comfortable in fight doesn't go to decision. I think DC is going to get a finish, but I opted for the fight ITD as that is Volkan's only real chance here. Similar with Stipe/Ngannou, I have a play on Stipe but a couple fight doesn't start round 4 and 5 in parlays. Chalky plays obviously on the props, but I'd be very surprised if they lose.

Makes sense. Do you have a favorite dog play tonight?

 

[Oblivian]

I'm playing a couple, but I'm actually on more favs tonight. I like how low Burgos's odds got, I'd be shocked to see Homasi/Alhassan see the cards which goes good with my other parlay stuff, I'd be really surprised to see Mak finish Tibau, the no scorecards plays with Villante and Pantoja looked good, and two non-confident plays are Ige and Davis. In Bellator, I really think Chandler/Yamauchi is far more likely to be finished than odds dictate.