UFC 220 - Miocic vs Ngannou - Boston

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 29, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,938
    Likes Received:
    17,105
    Location:
    philly
  2. Sapp

    Sapp Red Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2017
    Messages:
    9,358
    Likes Received:
    31,154
    It's inconceivable that DC vs Volkan goes the distance.
     
  3. LogicalInsanity

    LogicalInsanity Steel Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2012
    Messages:
    25,042
    Likes Received:
    16,156
    Whoa, stipe is an underdog?!
     
  4. MacPherson911

    MacPherson911 Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2014
    Messages:
    834
    Likes Received:
    372
    Location:
    parts unknown
    Stipe is such a live dog here it's unreal. We don't know anything about Francis besides he has dynamite in his fists. Can he go 3-5 rounds or will he gas? Can he get up from the ground? Has his chin ever been tested? We know that the answer is yes to all of that for Stipe. My money's on #andstill
     
    MixedMartialFarts likes this.
  5. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2017
    Messages:
    1,262
    Likes Received:
    1,258
    Probably gonna play Stipe and hedge it with the under line, same thing I did for Overeem/Ngannou. I think it's Stipe's fight to win if he lasts a round, not necessarily because Ngannou's gonna automatically gas to death, but moreso because I think that if a guy's capable of figuring out how to keep Ngannou off for a round, they've figured out how to solve him down the stretch.
     
    Gambling Man, Omni1 and RuthlessRich like this.
  6. Papi

    Papi Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2017
    Messages:
    779
    Likes Received:
    445
    Location:
    California
    This!!
     
  7. RuthlessRich

    RuthlessRich Ghost

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2017
    Messages:
    332
    Likes Received:
    115
    Location:
    Toronto
    I think its safe to bet the house on Stipe vs Ngannou doesnt go the distance. Will probably bet on DC vs Volkan doesnt go distance as well
     
  8. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,279
    Likes Received:
    5,560
    Location:
    Sewers
    in terms of initial leans this card looks bleak. could be good for live bet.
     
    Rapidryan88 likes this.
  9. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,938
    Likes Received:
    17,105
    Location:
    philly
    you're gonna bet -800 on that?
     
    turbozed, mrbaapt and NinjaCat456 like this.
  10. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,938
    Likes Received:
    17,105
    Location:
    philly
    so oezdemir has 11 finishes. all 11 were in the first round.

    and realistically that's just about the most likely way he'd have to beat DC here, anyway, right?

    i'm taking some +700
     
    Card, MixedMartialFarts and LEMONZEST like this.
  11. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2016
    Messages:
    1,488
    Likes Received:
    1,548
    Value is value and don't get me wrong, I was on Rumble vs DC...But we all know how that went.
    I don't really see where Oezdemir could be better than Rumble..
     
    Manpuncher likes this.
  12. raketmannen

    raketmannen Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2016
    Messages:
    3,028
    Likes Received:
    2,495
    Maybe by not initiating the clinch?
     
  13. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages:
    482
    Likes Received:
    382
    Location:
    Canada
    Not retiring mid-fight might be a good tactic as well.
     
    OutRun, bruthead, arridude and 9 others like this.
  14. Manpuncher

    Manpuncher Yellow Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2017
    Messages:
    181
    Likes Received:
    128
    Ngannou becomes Ngassou Rd 3/4 - Stipe by GnP TKO.
     
    mrbaapt likes this.
  15. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    24,036
    Likes Received:
    8,946
    Stipe's chin being tested is irrelevant in this case though imo. If Ngannou lands, it's smelling salts time no matter who you are.

    I like the thought of betting Stipe and the u1.5. You have to figure Stipe the wrestler comes out for this one. Maybe he tries to stick and move on the outside for awhile to avoid exchanges that way. But no way does Stipe want to be anywhere near the pocket trading with Francis. Overeem hurt Stipe badly but tried to finish with a guillotine. Stipe needs to stay away from that freaky power any way possible. Hitting early TD's and tiring Francis out seems the best path to doing that.
     
    mrbaapt and Sadistics like this.
  16. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,938
    Likes Received:
    17,105
    Location:
    philly
    i don't hate that combo.. but you could get middled.
     
    iGnP likes this.
  17. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    24,036
    Likes Received:
    8,946
    True.

    Another strategy I guess is to bet Ngannou rd 1 and then just look to live bet Stipe after that depending on what things look like.
     
  18. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,938
    Likes Received:
    17,105
    Location:
    philly
    i like that better
     
  19. danareem

    danareem Blue Belt

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2013
    Messages:
    628
    Likes Received:
    380
    Stipe +164 on pinnacle, adding that
     
  20. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,758
    Likes Received:
    1,635
    Location:
    Sweden
    The risk then being Stipe beats Ngannou in the first, which is how he regularly beats fools.

    I might just play the under 1.5U big if the price is right and LB Stipe after that.
     
    EzFlyer likes this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page