UFC 219 - Cyborg vs Holm - Vegas | Page 39

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 25, 2017.

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  1. mkess101 85 or bust...

    mkess101
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    I hate that Rountree bet honestly. Too many weird things happen in MMA to only get 2-1 on ONE GUY getting fastest KO out of 20 fighters.

    It may well hit, and BOL, but that's not even close to enough to make it worth betting imo. In fact, I'm on the opposite of NOT Rountree fastest KO. Not a big bet at all, but out of principle I had to play it. Odds just seem off to me on one specific guy scoring fastest KO.

    Edit: I have Rountree on most of my DK teams though, so if he gets the early KO and you win your bet, I'll cry with one eye ha ha.
     
    #761
  2. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    seems reckless to me.. if cyborg gets a rd 1 ko for example, it would be -12.27 units on that fight

    if holm got a rd 1 finish like -20 units...
     
    #762
  3. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    Adding a unit on Barboza NSC +240. Also have 2u on his ML around +250.
     
    #763
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  4. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    @mkess101 if you're gonna play the #'s game angle -- you gotta run all the #'s to justify the -280, no? like.. he's the most likely rd 1 finisher per the odds by a longshot...in fact he could get a rd 2 ko and still get it, possibly
     
    #764
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  5. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    jealous of your price on nsc! i'm like +19x on my nsc plays.. oh well
     
    #765
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  6. Omni1 Yellow Belt

    Omni1
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    That's a big if though. I got massive units on both Cyborg -5.5 (-225) & starts round 2 at (-254). Didn't realize Jim Gunn did the same. Great minds ............
     
    #766
  7. mkess101 85 or bust...

    mkess101
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    Yeah of course. I'm not saying the odds of that prop are off in comparison with all the other odds 5d offers on rd 1 finishers. I agree, adding those all up the line makes sense. I'm saying that in how I personally view it, the odds in their totality are off. One example: Khabib rd 1 is +325. While I'm on Barb, it's easy for me to envision a scenario where Khabib hits and early TD, and proceeds to wreck Edson inside his guard, finishing him fairly early. I can also see Edson landing something big early and finishing. That's just one fight obviously. Like I said, I still think Rountree is the most likely to finish first by KO. But out of 20 fighters, I still put his odds at around 20% tops. And the implied odds are about 27% based on these odds.

    I hope I explained that right. It kinda rambles but I think it's what I want to say ha ha.
     
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  8. Caicara Purple Belt

    Caicara
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    Cyborg SUB or DEC +300 is good. Cyborg will be cautious.
     
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  9. Omni1 Yellow Belt

    Omni1
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    Cyborg UDec +565. Get it while you can!
     
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  10. iGnP Silver Belt

    iGnP
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    Out of those 18 other fighters, how many have quick (t)ko ability?
     
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  11. Omni1 Yellow Belt

    Omni1
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    Like i said. Tremendous value for Rountree Fastest TKO +200.
     
    #771
  12. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    finally an angle i like on condit-magny -- i said i wanted condit a lot closer to evens or magny over +200.. neither of them are gonna happen, so i said "maybe magny dec +350 or higher or maybe condit NSC if it dipped below -200"

    the last one there finally happened, hehe. playing condit NSC -195. not going big, but man i don't see magny finishing him.
     
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  13. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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