UFC 219 - Cyborg vs Holm - Vegas

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Nov 25, 2017.

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  1. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Smolka was insane value at +310. Best line of the card imo. I'm on Glenn at +220 as well. I'm with a lot of the others on Barb and Esparza as well. I'm against most and on Condit here, but small. Favs that I'm on are Elliott, Vettori, Diakese, Khalil/Ole ITD, Holm/Holly ITD.
     
  2. Gugabe

    Gugabe Green Belt

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    I think that we're looking at a leg kick TKO, honestly. Khabib doesn't do much to protect his legs from what we've seen.
     
  3. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Do you have an opinion of how Holly can win this fight or is it a play purely on value
     
  4. sonhow

    sonhow Red Belt

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    Smolka has not been the same since Moreno upset him. Things need to change in his head if he wants to keep his job in the ufc. Just keeps giving up in grappling exchanges.

    Holly -not wierd
    Cyborg - wierd

    Normal it is.
     
  5. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Sorry, that was a typo - Cyborg/Holm ITD. Played that a long time ago in a parlay that closes. I don't think Holly has a good chance besides a headkick.
     
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  6. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Agreed
     
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  7. Omni1

    Omni1 Blue Belt

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    I believe the Jackson/Wink strategy will be to avoid contact in the first round. Holm may even receive a warning for passivity. The idea will be to get Cyborg to get frustrated & rush in like a pissed off bull. If Cyborg loses her cool & rushes in she could easily get stunned by a straight left & finished via head kick. Holm fights o the level of her competition. We could see an upset. I have already bet Cyborg. However, I understand why so many have bet on Holm.
     
  8. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I think Holm's going to be surprised at how well Cyborg can cover the distance.
     
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  9. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Highly highly doubtful. This line should be much higher. Look at previous lines of Holly fights- they’re always juiced and she’s been overvalued ever since the Ronda KO. The outcome of that fight tells us more about Ronda than it does Holly, if you know what I mean. Cyborg isn’t a sloppy brawler who is going to throw her gameplan out the window if she doesn’t get an early finish. She’s the most talented woman fighter in history. More so, most of Holly’s KOs have come from high kicks. If she doesn’t land it, can she finish Cyborg in another way? Extremely doubtful. That’s literally the one aspect Cyborg has to worry about
     
  10. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Have had to put capping and betting on the back burner lately. It sucks, I miss it, but dealing with a terminally ill family member when you are POA and dealing with one issue after another just takes way more time than I ever imagined it could. I basically skipped 2 events compeletely, can't remember the last time I did that. I've spent little time on this card too, and my action pre fight will reflect that. For what it's worth, my thoughts on some fights based on the limited research I've done:

    Cyborg most likely stops Holm at some point. I think Holly will do what she does, circle away, avoid exchanges, try to potshot Cris. At some point though she's gonna have to get some respect from Cyborg, and I don't think she can. I think Cyborg -5.5 still has value at -240. I also like a small stab at Cyborg sub at +975.

    I like Barboza at these odds. I think he has a very realistic shot to win (as it seems a lot of the regs here do--not surprised, I kinda figured he'd get some love here as a pretty big dog). This fight is stylistically of course the easiest to break down. Grappler vs striker, pretty simple. If Barb can keep it standing for long enough stretches, he'll win. If he can't, he'll lose.

    I know some people like Carla based on odds, but she's flakey to me. I got burned betting her vs Markos pretty badly. That was a fight where I really think Carla was the more skilled fighter, but her confidence (or lack of it) showed so much. In this fight, I think she's the less skilled fighter. And Cavillo oozes confidence. I like Cavillo by sub, rd 2 or 3.

    Hooker is gonna give Diakiese all he can handle. I'm not sure who wins, but I think this will be close. Hooker +3.5 at-145 is the bet here imo. Or fight goes distance at -150. I'm on both.

    I don't know what to make of Magny/Condit. Too many question marks, I'll just watch it and enjoy it and look for good LB opportunities.

    Roundtree probably blasts Olek early, but no value at all. Unless you are the guy who arbed the rd 1 props for a ton of units. Amazing work for free $ there.

    I think Glenn will be very competitive vs Jury. Jury probably wins, but Glenn +3.5 is tempting. I just wish it was cheaper. Glenn usually fights for your money if nothing else.

    Vettori is too expensive, and so is his NSC line which is what I was figuring I'd be on. Pass, will just LB.

    I like Smolka a lot here. +195 is great value. I think he can win some scrambles and get himself into good positions in the grappling game as long as he isn't satisfied just sub hunting off his back. I'm gonna believe him in that he's learned that lesson. I wouldn't be him at evens or anything, but at 2-1 he's absolutely worth a bet.

    I know nothing about De La Rosa so I'm not even gonna pretend to try to cap this fight. Nor will I think about betting it.

    Hope everyone had a great holiday and makes some $ tonight.
     
  11. AxeMurderer

    AxeMurderer Orange Belt

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    I would be highly surprised if barb gets the eagle out of there with a knee. Khabib does not usually go for doubles but gets his hands on you and drags you down. Barb is very live though because the fight will remaining standing for stretches, I dont think khabib will finish him early if he gets him down, but i dont think barb gets back up either. so he will have the beginning of each round to do damage standing or khabib will take dec or late stoppage. This is my favorite fight i am looking forward to, cant wait for it.
     
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  12. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    I agree from the standpoint that throwing a knee as Khabib closes distance is such an all-or-nothing strategy. Basically if you don't land it, you're getting taken down by a grappler the level of Khabib. And like you said, once that happens Barb isn't getting back up.

    Barb HAS to control distance and land on Khabib early. Bust him up and keep it standing for as long as he can. Even if Khabib hits a TD mid round, if Barb is really lighting him up standing prior to that and Khabib does minimal damage after the TD, there's at least a CHANCE that Barb wins rounds that way. Plus it might take some of the starch out of Khabib for later in the fight.

    If Khabib hits TD's early in rounds, it's a wrap. He's just too dominant a grappler with top position. Barb will drown if that happens.
     
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  13. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    -280 that Rountree doesn't get fastest KO is tempting. 9 other fights. IDK...I might have to bet this.
     
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  14. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Um, why? What other fights have the potential to end early? Not that many for -280
     
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  15. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Jesus, 20u~ on the main event. I wish you luck! Looks like we're on mostly all the same plays.
     
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  16. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Just a #'s game. Is there roughly a 27% chance that out of 10 fights (so 20 fighters), Rountree scores the fastest KO? That's the implied odds, and I'm not sure the % is that high. Weird things happen literally EVERY card that none of us predict right? And in this case, it doesn't necessarily HAVE to be that someone else scores a really early KO. What if Rountree doesn't KO him until late? Or hell, what if he doesn't get the KO at all?

    I agree, there's a lot of fighters here where an early KO is really unlikely. But there's some where it's not so crazy.

    Do I think Rountree is the most likely of the 20 fighters to score an early KO? Yeah, for sure. Do I think it's better than a 1 in 4 chance it's him? Not really. Probably 15-20% chance it's him imo, which gives at least SOME value to -280. A big play on it? Nah. But worth something imo.
     
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  17. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Taking another dog in Hooker @2.60, 1U. Also adding 0.5U Magny [email protected] I already have his ML and I think Condits all wars finally caught up with him.

    Can’t remember last time I was on dogs only. Love it.
     
  18. 2bet

    2bet Orange Belt

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    I am on the exact same, I only skipped the esparza fight, I like Cynthia but Esparza is friends with that Felice Herrig, so she might be at least bisexual which changes a lot for me lol, I cannot bet against that
     
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  19. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

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    Okay, I just dropped what for me is an atomic bomb on Cyborg itd at -155. This line is just stupid good. 25 minutes for her to finish? I did 4.5u on this. Biggest bet by far on the card for me now. Not even close.
     
  20. Omni1

    Omni1 Blue Belt

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    Tremendous value on Rountree Fastest TKO +200. Also like Rountree R1 -120.
     
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