UFC 219 - Cyborg vs Holm - Vegas

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I think it's safe to say Edson will be the dog. Historically their lines have been
Khabib
-370 v Johnson
-1200 v Horcher
-350 RDA

While Edson has been relatively cheap at
-175 v Dariush
-225 v Gilbert
-170 v their common opponent MJ.

I think it will open Khabib -220 or so. Public drives it from there & they love Khabib...
 
Barboza's just about Khabib's worst matchup at the top of LW, IMO. He's not unbeatable, but he hits hard and he's good at keeping distance. The majority of top-level LWs enjoy clinching or boxing too much for their own good against Khabib.
 
We already have lines this side of the pond. We've got Khabib -333 Barboza +280.

Don't hate Edson at all at those odds but just got a feeling it could look a lot like the MJ fight. Big advantage standing for Barb but one takedown and we see a grown man get violently raped on the ground.
 
I want Esparza as a good dog. Gimme that.
 
We already have lines this side of the pond. We've got Khabib -333 Barboza +280.

Don't hate Edson at all at those odds but just got a feeling it could look a lot like the MJ fight. Big advantage standing for Barb but one takedown and we see a grown man get violently raped on the ground.
That's the worry but Khabib is so bad standing, I'd kick the sh1t out of him on the feet. That can only get you so far at this level IMO...100% correct though, 1 takedown and it will be a serious beating for Edson
 
I think it's safe to say Edson will be the dog. Historically their lines have been
Khabib
-370 v Johnson
-1200 v Horcher
-350 RDA

While Edson has been relatively cheap at
-175 v Dariush
-225 v Gilbert
-170 v their common opponent MJ.

I think it will open Khabib -220 or so. Public drives it from there & they love Khabib...

There is lines on marathon/ohmbet already:
Ohmbet:
+245 barboza
-285 khabib
 
We already have lines this side of the pond. We've got Khabib -333 Barboza +280.

Don't hate Edson at all at those odds but just got a feeling it could look a lot like the MJ fight. Big advantage standing for Barb but one takedown and we see a grown man get violently raped on the ground.
@Oblivian oh how i would love +280 on Edson. hope we get the same odds here
 
Am I the only one who feels like Khabib/Barboza is probably unbettable?

Barboza is most athletic Khabib opponent yet and might have best takedown defense outside of Tibau who Khabib went 0/15 against.

But unlike Tibau, Barboza has a striking game and can punish Khabib if his takedowns fail. And who knows how good Khabib's chin is, esp in light of weight cut issues. Didn't look great that one time he took a strike from Michael Johnson.

That said if the price is +250 I'm not going to take Barboza to watch him have a 2 minute window to land a KO before Khabib takes him to the ground and dominates the rest of the fight. Because that's how the fight is playing out if Barboza's takedown D is closer to Johnson/RDA than Tibau. But I'm also not comfortable taking Khabib -300 bc if takedown struggle is real, this bet is going to be a sweat.

This is really impossible to predict. It's Khabib's takedown offense vs Barboza's takedown D, and I *think* Khabib wins but who knows. I'd bet Barboza if he was a massive dog at +400 and Khabib if he was small fave at -150, but anywhere in between I just shrug and pass.
 
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Am I the only one who feels like Khabib/Barboza is probably unbettable?

Barboza is most athletic Khabib opponent yet and might have best takedown defense outside of Tibau who Khabib went 0/15 against.

But unlike Tibau, Barboza has a striking game and can punish Khabib if his takedowns fail. And who knows how good Khabib's chin is, esp in light of weight cut issues. Didn't look great that one time he took a strike from Michael Johnson.

That said if the price is +250 I'm not going to take Barboza to watch him have a 2 minute window to land a KO before Khabib takes him to the ground and dominates the rest of the fight. Because that's how the fight is playing out if Barboza's takedown D is closer to Johnson/RDA than Tibau. But I'm also not comfortable taking Khabib -300 bc if takedown struggle is real, this bet is going to be a sweat.

This is really impossible to predict. It's Khabib's takedown offense vs Barboza's takedown D, and I *think* Khabib wins but who knows. I'd bet Barboza if he was a massive dog at +400 and Khabib if he was small fave at -150, but anywhere in between I just shrug and pass.

I feel like it's worth a play at the ITD line, and Barb at anything past +150.
 
Took some barb when he was around +340 but those shitty euro limits
 
I'd like to see Barboza get the win but I'll be betting on Khabib.
 
I feel like it's worth a play at the ITD line, and Barb at anything past +150.

I don't know...+200 or whatever feels awfully light for the clearly inferior fighter in a vaccuum, just because he has a *possibly* good matchup. What's your logic for liking Barb that much?
 
I'm not touching Barb unless he's in the mid +200s. I think he will be too.
 
Think i'd wait until we see Kebab at weighins before betting him.
 
I'm with you if he's at a steep price.

I'm with this statement as well. Hopefully we all get a ridic price. I also wonder how Khabib's line will move after opening
 
I want barb at +3xx and im in. Not sure if ill get it though
 
Man, I think I like Barb a lot more than the consensus here. I'd take him at +170 or better for about a unit or so. There's a lot to like about Edson in this fight imo
 
wtf....only 10 fights for ppv? after the weight in, there will be 8 fights top.
 
Lots of very even-looking matchups and question marks for others. Only really gonna look to play Nicolau, Diakiese, Usman -900 whatever it'll be free money, and throw a little on Holly
 
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