UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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Everyone seems to be forgetting about Lee's biggest vulnerability. His chin...
 
Jessica Eye has one of the worst records in the UFC but I think she's going to get the win here. She's always been an underachiever in my eyes. She's had some awful performances where she didn't fight to her potential and she's lost her share of close decisions.

She was always a small 135er and I think 125 is the right move for her. She looks like she's in great physical condition, never been leaner and she will be the bigger girl against PVZ.

The line is not moving in the direction I want it too and if I can't get her at at least +140 then I will pass. At the end of the day it is Jessica Eye and she is hard to trust, despite everything I just said, her records speaks for itself.

PVZ for the most part is a pressure fighter, a lot of girls outmatch her in technique but PVZ is athletic, has great cardio and is always very determined. Forcing grappling exchanges with Eye would be smart, Eye needs to be at range to do her best work, no doubt Eye will be the much sharper striker.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Forcing grappling exchanges with Eye would be smart, Eye needs to be at range to do her best work, no doubt Eye will be the much sharper striker.
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I disagree. Eye is physically bigger and has more experience grappling/higher ranking in BJJ (purple belt vs white). The only time PVZ has shown proficiency on the ground is against Alex Chambers and was otherwise dominated on the ground by Waterson (blue belt) and Namajunas (purple or brown now).

It wouldn't surprise me to see PVZ get caught in something off the wall like this:



Will it happen? Who knows, It's Jessica Eye like you said. But I don't favor PVZ in any area of this fight, especially the grappling.
 
Orion said:
I disagree. Eye is physically bigger and has more experience grappling/higher ranking in BJJ (purple belt vs white). The only time PVZ has shown proficiency on the ground is against Alex Chambers and was otherwise dominated on the ground by Waterson (blue belt) and Namajunas (purple or brown now).

It wouldn't surprise me to see PVZ get caught in something off the wall like this:



Will it happen? Who knows, It's Jessica Eye like you said. But I don't favor PVZ in any area of this fight, especially the grappling.
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My dude, PVZ does not have white belt level BJJ and Waterson does not have bluebelt level BJJ. They may be ranked as those belts but it does not reflect their grappling. Plenty of fighters start off with traditional gi BJJ, get to a certain rank and then end up stopping when they switch over to more MMA focused grappling.

Waterson probably got her bluebelt like a decade ago. Waterson tapped Penne who is a black belt. Just because you read that Waterson is a blue belt on her bio on UFC.com does not mean it's true.

PVZ has only been out grappled by Waterson and Rose. She dominated Curran, Felice and Chambers on the ground.

I have no confidence in Eye's ground game, she is lost off her back and she has only ever completed one takedown in the UFC. If this does end up on the ground then it will probably be with PVZ on top.

Also that standing head and arm choke is such a rare submission that only really works on novice grapplers. I highly doubt Eye will ever get another one.

Look I wanna bet on Jessica Eye too but I gotta call it how it is.
 
Orion said:
I disagree. Eye is physically bigger and has more experience grappling/higher ranking in BJJ (purple belt vs white). The only time PVZ has shown proficiency on the ground is against Alex Chambers and was otherwise dominated on the ground by Waterson (blue belt) and Namajunas (purple or brown now).

It wouldn't surprise me to see PVZ get caught in something off the wall like this:



Will it happen? Who knows, It's Jessica Eye like you said. But I don't favor PVZ in any area of this fight, especially the grappling.
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Stop with the belts please, it doesnt matter. Waterson is great on the ground and Namajunas is one of the best in the division. Both better than eye.
 
Eyes ground game is pretty meh while pvz pretty much dominated herrig on the ground
 
Sham5916910 said:
Everyone seems to be forgetting about Lee's biggest vulnerability. His chin...
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Outside of the Santos fight, have we seen Lee legitimately hurt? I'm not necessarily disagreeing, I just don't recall it happening off the top of my head and I've seen a lot of people questioning his chin.
 
t6p said:
Outside of the Santos fight, have we seen Lee legitimately hurt? I'm not necessarily disagreeing, I just don't recall it happening off the top of my head and I've seen a lot of people questioning his chin.
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Santos, Escudero, Al. He was hurt in all three and i think Trinaldo hurt him to the body.
 
EzFlyer said:
his chin isn't that bad. and tony isn't a power puncher
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I think his chins up for debate. Santos stopped him and Escudero hurt him and they both have four tko wins between them in over 40 victories. And i don't agree that Ferg isn't a power puncher. He may not be a one shot stopper but he can certainly hit he just jumps on subs most the time. Ferg will be the hardest puncher Lee has faced outside of maybe Al, and he's definitely the best striker Lee has faced.
 
Ferg is a power puncher for sure, not a huge one but his power is respectable, he's put guys out with one shot before. Definitely a bigger puncher than Leo Santos.
 
t6p said:
Outside of the Santos fight, have we seen Lee legitimately hurt? I'm not necessarily disagreeing, I just don't recall it happening off the top of my head and I've seen a lot of people questioning his chin.
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In just his last fight Trinaldo rocked him with an overhand left and damn near killed him with a body shot
 
Sham5916910 said:
I think his chins up for debate. Santos stopped him and Escudero hurt him and they both have four tko wins between them in over 40 victories. And i don't agree that Ferg isn't a power puncher. He may not be a one shot stopper but he can certainly hit he just jumps on subs most the time. Ferg will be the hardest puncher Lee has faced outside of maybe Al, and he's definitely the best striker Lee has faced.
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Sadistics said:
In just his last fight Trinaldo rocked him with an overhand left and damn near killed him with a body shot
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I just reviewed the Iaquinta, Escudero, Santos and Trinaldo fights and I think up for debate is a better way to describe Lee's chin. Al dropped him with a jab in the first round and stunned him briefly with a right in the third. He wasn't really in danger of being put away in either case though. As for the Escudero fight, Escudero landed a clean jab in the first round that backed Lee up but it wasn't that significant at all IMO. I know Santos isn't exactly known for his KO power, but he landed about as clean of a right hand on the chin as you possibly can and even after about 20 follow up shots Lee was still defending.

I think that Lee's striking defense is a bigger concern that his chin honestly. People landing clean shots on him seem to be a common theme. But, in almost every case he's shown the ability to recover quickly.
 
t6p said:
I just reviewed the Iaquinta, Escudero, Santos and Trinaldo fights and I think up for debate is a better way to describe Lee's chin. Al dropped him with a jab in the first round and stunned him briefly with a right in the third. He wasn't really in danger of being put away in either case though. As for the Escudero fight, Escudero landed a clean jab in the first round that backed Lee up but it wasn't that significant at all IMO. I know Santos isn't exactly known for his KO power, but he landed about as clean of a right hand on the chin as you possibly can and even after about 20 follow up shots Lee was still defending.

I think that Lee's striking defense is a bigger concern that his chin honestly. People landing clean shots on him seem to be a common theme. But, in almost every case he's shown the ability to recover quickly.
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i think lee's also improved a lot since some of those fights, especially like the iaquinta fight, he was soooo young
 
t6p said:
I just reviewed the Iaquinta, Escudero, Santos and Trinaldo fights and I think up for debate is a better way to describe Lee's chin. Al dropped him with a jab in the first round and stunned him briefly with a right in the third. He wasn't really in danger of being put away in either case though. As for the Escudero fight, Escudero landed a clean jab in the first round that backed Lee up but it wasn't that significant at all IMO. I know Santos isn't exactly known for his KO power, but he landed about as clean of a right hand on the chin as you possibly can and even after about 20 follow up shots Lee was still defending.

I think that Lee's striking defense is a bigger concern that his chin honestly. People landing clean shots on him seem to be a common theme. But, in almost every case he's shown the ability to recover quickly.
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Good points, you don't go 9-2 in the UFC with a glass chin. I'm expecting Ferg to stun him, make him shoot a sloppy TD, and slap on a choke. Trinaldo had his neck a couple times but didn't go for it.
 
EzFlyer said:
i think lee's also improved a lot since some of those fights, especially like the iaquinta fight, he was soooo young
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Absolutely agree with you. I was looking at those older fights to get a better feel for Lee's chin.
 
Trinaldo was stuffing his shots in r2 pretty easily if memory serves me right. My biggest concern is he only shoots doubles. He's entering snap down city territory every time he shoots that double.
 
Sadistics said:
Good points, you don't go 9-2 in the UFC with a glass chin. I'm expecting Ferg to stun him, make him shoot a sloppy TD, and slap on a choke. Trinaldo had his neck a couple times but didn't go for it.
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Yup, I thought it was interesting that Trinaldo actually looked for the ninja choke against the fence in the first. It would be very bad for Lee to be in that position with Ferguson.
 
IMO this fight comes down to Lee's wrestling. I don't think the striking is relevant. Either Lee can implement his wrestling game to win rounds or he loses the fight.

Power puncher or not I think Ferg will dominate whatever striking exchanges take place. Lee needs to clinch early in every round to grind the win.
 
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