UFC 216 - Ferguson vs Lee - Vegas

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Loading 5u on Werdum @ 1.4

Lewis frankly overperformed his skill-level after fluking out a comeback miracle against Browne. Hunt made Lewis look like a total amateur.

I just don't see Lewis' path to victory outside of a single massive punch, and Werdum isn't that chinny when he isn't chasing Miocic in full retardo modo. Werdum by fairly easy unanimous decision where he range-strikes Lewis to oblivion, IMO.

My book's also offering the same prices/props for DJ as last time. I like DJ to sub @ 4.0, and DJ ITD @ 1.91.
 
I will be putting some juice down on a werdum/ferg parlay.
 
2u Eye/PVZ -244. How does this fight not hit the cards?

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Kidding. I think it almost always goes the distance.
 
I think there's a clear-cut way to play this fight.

Lee prefight, Ferguson live.

One guy is a fast starter.
The other is a notorious slow starter who comes on as other guys start to slow down.

Taking Lee +205 and also taking o2.5 -130 (independent of the above strategy)
 
I think there's a clear-cut way to play this fight.

Lee prefight, Ferguson live.

One guy is a fast starter.
The other is a notorious slow starter who comes on as other guys start to slow down.

Taking Lee +205 and also taking o2.5 -130 (independent of the above strategy)

There's always a chance of Ferguson finding Lee's (a bit suspect chin) in early exchange but other than that I agree.
 
So where do you guys cap Ferguson? He is near -200 now at Pinnacle which is pretty decent imo. I think -250 is more accurate.
 
I favour Lee. I think he can straight up outwrestle Ferg to a decision.
 
Ferg price really is dumb IMO

Lee is obviously improving at a really good clip. He might be the faster guy and better boxer(hands only). He also might be the best wrestler Ferg has faced in ages.

I favor Ferguson. But I just think the price is off.

The big question is how improved is Lee's cardio. If it holds up(Big if) I'd say this is a pick em
 
There's always a chance of Ferguson finding Lee's (a bit suspect chin) in early exchange but other than that I agree.
I think the O/U is a no play for this reason. Both guys have good subs as well so could easily see this ending early.
 
I think the O/U is a no play for this reason. Both guys have good subs as well so could easily see this ending early.
Agreed. I could literally see anything happen this fight
 
I favour Lee. I think he can straight up outwrestle Ferg to a decision.

Idk, we haven't really seen his cardio tested, especially in a 5 rounder. With the pace Ferg puts on people I think we have to expect him to have an advantage in the later rounds. If Lee's cardio does hold up though, you could be right.

I definitely can't fault a play on Lee at +200, but IMO his most likely path is an early sub based on what we've seen so far from both guys.
 
I quite like the over in Dariush/Dunham, mainly due to Dunham's skill set. He's very tough and durable while not possessing much power. As they're both SP a lot of their main tools won't be there. Both are BJJ black belts and savvy enough to avoid getting subbed.

I was initially planning on playing Dariush but after tape a Dunham decision isn't out of the question. Currently have 2.5u on the over at -165 and may play Dunham dec dependant of odds.
 
I quite like the over in Dariush/Dunham, mainly due to Dunham's skill set. He's very tough and durable while not possessing much power. As they're both SP a lot of their main tools won't be there. Both are BJJ black belts and savvy enough to avoid getting subbed.

I was initially planning on playing Dariush but after tape a Dunham decision isn't out of the question. Currently have 2.5u on the over at -165 and may play Dunham dec dependant of odds.

I don't hate it, but man, Benny has been suuuuper aggressive early in fights. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he got a rd 1 finish..
 
I don't hate it, but man, Benny has been suuuuper aggressive early in fights. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he got a rd 1 finish..

I didn't get that impression, he was aggressive against Barboza from the start cause you have to pressure Barb, can't let him have range. Before that against Rashid he kept a fairly slow pace. Against Vick the 1st round ko was more Vick's tall man defense than Benny's aggression.

I watched all the way back to his fight with Martin and haven't seen a big jump in aggression levels
 
I didn't get that impression, he was aggressive against Barboza from the start cause you have to pressure Barb, can't let him have range. Before that against Rashid he kept a fairly slow pace. Against Vick the 1st round ko was more Vick's tall man defense than Benny's aggression.

I watched all the way back to his fight with Martin and haven't seen a big jump in aggression levels

I guess it was the Vick and barboza fights... I actually barely freakin remember the magomedov one hehe. I remember people thought mago would out point him easily (not me!) And Benny was the sturdier dude on feet etc and won cleanly, that's about it

But he wasn't shot out if a cannon in that one.. and I totally agree that he did it vs barboza cause that's only way he could beat him
 
Werdum is *only* -255? I remember @MMA Goodfella capping Hunt at upwards of -300 against Lewis when they fought... what do you cap Werdum here? -1000? lol

Regardless, Werdum decision will pay upwards of +200 and ill be on it for sure
 
Smashing the MM ko/sub line. It's crazy to me that its basically evens, I don't see how Borg survives this.
 
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