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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 4, 2017.
God damn this card sucks dick
I like it better than 215 sans Ngannou.
I was about to call you crazy! Then I looked at the card...
i see plenty of gambling opportunities here = good card.
Hammered ferg -160
It's actually a fun card matchmaking wise and I'm not hating on it, just way to little name recognition for it to be a ppv. But where I live ppv dont cost more than any other ufc card, maybe I would've felt otherwise about if I had to pay 60 bucks for it
UFC 216 - Lightweight 5 rounds - T Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV
Sat 10/7 1001 Kevin Lee +175 o2½ -130
11:59PM 1002 Tony Ferguson -245 u2½ -110
Missed -185 on Ferg but I think I like the o2.5 here
I favor Ferg here but I think Lee is being undervalued somewhat.
Ferguson is weak as fuck. Lee can easily Castillo him with added finishing skills and better standup.
Tony has great conditioning and fight IQ, but he can be beat in transitions when he is defending. If Lee can press the fight, grapple and not gas out he can win.
It was actually poor fight IQ by Ferg that allowed the Castillo fight to be as close as it was. He even said later that he'd never be that inactive off his back again. Ferg isn't "weak as fuck", he was a juco national champion wrestler. Lee is probably physically stronger, but Ferg uses leverage and his long arms really well which makes him functionally strong in a lot of MMA situations (like his front headlock snapdown for example).
Lee is definitely a legit challenge though. I just wonder how Lee will deal with being pressured nonstop by a guy who has an endless gas tank, great chin and ability to recover quickly, and wide variety of strikes.
On the flipside, Ferg does seem to take chances with his grappling, I agree with you there. It makes him a dynamic finisher, but can leave openings too. And Lee has shown (as you said) his grappling transitions are very good.
I think Ferg wins, but this is probably too much juice to pay against a dynamic up and coming guy like Lee.
Lee @3.00, fastbet/bethard
I agree with your analysis. I don't think Ferguson is a lock by any means. Lee can definitely submit Ferguson off a scramble but I think this fight might play out like the Michael Johnson/Justin Gaethje fight and Ferguson breaks him down in a 5 round fight with his pace and will to win.
What's Ferguson's TDD like? The most obvious path to victory for him is to keep it standing. I know he likes going for a lot of funky stuff on the ground but I'm not sure whether thats a good idea vs Lee who is very solid on top.
Over 5 rounds i strongly favour Ferg. I have three issues with Lee that are going to hurt him in this fight. Hes chinny he gets dropped every bloody fight and i think he only shoots doubles. He also has pretty bad standup. Trinaldo was stuffing his doubles pretty easily. Now over five rounds theres gonna come a point where Ferg stuffs a few especially if hes all over Lee standing and Lee starts shooting desperate doubles. Once that happens welcome to snap down city. This is also a biiigggg step up in competition.
Others might disagree but I think Ferg's takedown defense is very good when he's focused on keeping the fight standing. He's ended up on his back at times after trying high risk attacks, which he feels comfortable attempting because he's so confident in his ground game.
Like you said though, I think his main focus in this fight should be to keep it standing, at least while Lee is fresh. He's way too dangerous on the ground to play around with.
Does anyone have a strong feeling on Lee's gas tank? We know Ferg's is endless and you'd have to think the longer it goes the more it's going to favor him.
Ferg's snapdown is so good that it doesn't even need to be a sloppy shot for him to get it. He's mastered it to the point where literally ANYONE who shoots on him is putting their neck in serious jeopardy. For sure it's better when guys get tired, but he is a threat with it from the opening bell.
Yeah after what we saw at elevation in Mexico City, I think it's not a stretch at all to say Ferg has the best cardio in MMA. Lee's gas tank might be fine, but he hasn't faced anyone who applies the pressure that Ferg does either. For sure the longer it goes the more it favors Ferg. Only possible exception would be if Lee is somehow able to just control Ferg on the mat for 3 rounds, but I don't see that happening. Even if he puts Ferg on his back, it's gonna be a scramble-fest where both guys will be using a lot of energy. And Ferg most likely has way more to draw from.
Sucks. No value on Ferguson now. I'll probably end up on Lee at this rate.