UFC 215 PBP/Discussion | Page 37

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 9, 2017.

  1. Joseph Budden Yellow Card

    Joseph Budden
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    Nunes did nothing in round 5 but hug, and Shev absolutely owned her in round 4
     
    #721
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  2. AxeMurderer Orange Belt

    AxeMurderer
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    and if you get a takedown and do nothing with it, it doesnt count at all. at least that is how big john explained it. and nunes did zero with it.
     
    #722
  3. lifeisgood12345 Orange Belt

    lifeisgood12345
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    Can anybody explain why AES got bet so aggressively hard? I thought she should have been a tiny fave around -120, but was afraid to bet Moras bc I didn't understand why she was such a big dog.
     
    #723
  4. raketmannen Green Belt

    raketmannen
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    3-4 pro mma record, over 2 years break, started a go fund me page for her training camp, zero athletisim. But still, you should never bet AES as a 3-1 favorite
     
    #724
    rille31 likes this.
  5. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    she didn't. she opened mid 200's and closed mid 200's.
     
    #725
  6. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    it's remarkable how infrequently we agree.
     
    #726
  7. lifeisgood12345 Orange Belt

    lifeisgood12345
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    She opened -217/+190 on pinnacle and closed -296/+255. I never once saw the price tick in Moras's direction and I would really like to know why everybody loved AES so much bc she just doesn't seem good at all to me. Happy memories from Fallon Fox win still?
     
    #727
  8. lifeisgood12345 Orange Belt

    lifeisgood12345
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    Yeah, the gofundme after 2 year break was a bit of a worry. My stat model had Moras as better though, and I couldn't see the 2 year break hurting THAT much.
     
    #728
  9. Papi Blue Belt

    Papi
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    I got fucking torched tonight. by far my worst event and i couldnt even watch the fights at least fml!!!
     
    #729
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  10. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    [​IMG]

    you posted nothing about moras before the fights.
     
    #730
    TheOneTrueKing, conmemay and 2bet like this.
  11. letmebangbrah Orange Belt

    letmebangbrah
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    smh i'm still salty about that non-stoppage. +2100 could have saved my night a bit.
     
    #731
  12. SBJJ Black Belt

    SBJJ
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    Weird. I think it was a close fight.

    But I don't think Nunes actually landed 1 significant head strike. And I'm not sure she really landed 10 total significant strikes. Yea, she landed a lot of sort of weak kicks. But she really did get beat standing

    And I guess I'm crazy but I thought Schev won the 5th. Under new rules especially. Hell, she even won the 30 seconds she was on her back. I thought the 5th was way clearer for Schev than the first was for Nunes
     
    #732
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  13. mmaHobbyist Orange Belt

    mmaHobbyist
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    $1 each bet?
     
    #733
  14. lifeisgood12345 Orange Belt

    lifeisgood12345
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    Does it matter? I'm not trying to brag, I am just trying to understand what makes these markets tick.

    I didn't post about Moras bc I only made a tiny bet on Moras. I didn't understand why anybody would want to bet on AES as a big fave, so I assumed there was some sharp reason I was missing. My stat model isn't great yet and I am new to UFC betting so I'm approaching with a bit of caution here.

    For somebody who loves to talk about helping each other win you aren't being too helpful here.
     
    #734
  15. 2bet Yellow Belt

    2bet
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    raketmannen already answered your question.
    Your hindsight does not matter but it's annoying and not helpful in any way either
     
    #735
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  16. Wiktoruspro Orange Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    this was my worst betting event ever
     
    #736
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  17. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
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    great event for me, was dog huntin so up like 25 u

    hope eweryone came out ok
     
    #737
  18. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
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    Got out of this one ok due to quite a few dogs hitting: Glenn was big for me, Stephens, Latifi, and Nunes. Unfortunately, favorites weren't to good for me. Only hit there on RDA and Nunes/Shev starts 2.
     
    #738
  19. MidgardSerpent Brown Belt

    MidgardSerpent
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    Cool, just realized today my over 2.5 subs @ +464 also hit. Sprinkled $25 on that. Makes my overall profit across 3 bookies a little over $600. Mostly bombed at the start of the night with the Adriano/KJ fight, had Martins ITD and made a last minute bet on the under 1.5.
     
    #739
  20. Slohog Green Belt

    Slohog
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    It's not a huge swing, probably a bunch of people parlaying whatever against a non-athletic grappler with more red flags then communist china.

    I put a small bet on Moras out of general princip when the line peaked out before the fight but that was mostly a tilted dumb bet since I was down and AES isn't good enough to be that big a favorite. That said I don't think line was super unreasonable given what we knew pre fight.
     
    #740

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