UFC 215 PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 9, 2017.

  1. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Nunes did nothing in round 5 but hug, and Shev absolutely owned her in round 4
     
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  2. AxeMurderer

    AxeMurderer Orange Belt

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    and if you get a takedown and do nothing with it, it doesnt count at all. at least that is how big john explained it. and nunes did zero with it.
     
  3. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

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    Can anybody explain why AES got bet so aggressively hard? I thought she should have been a tiny fave around -120, but was afraid to bet Moras bc I didn't understand why she was such a big dog.
     
  4. raketmannen

    raketmannen Purple Belt

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    3-4 pro mma record, over 2 years break, started a go fund me page for her training camp, zero athletisim. But still, you should never bet AES as a 3-1 favorite
     
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  5. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    she didn't. she opened mid 200's and closed mid 200's.
     
  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    it's remarkable how infrequently we agree.
     
  7. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

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    She opened -217/+190 on pinnacle and closed -296/+255. I never once saw the price tick in Moras's direction and I would really like to know why everybody loved AES so much bc she just doesn't seem good at all to me. Happy memories from Fallon Fox win still?
     
  8. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

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    Yeah, the gofundme after 2 year break was a bit of a worry. My stat model had Moras as better though, and I couldn't see the 2 year break hurting THAT much.
     
  9. Papi

    Papi Blue Belt

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    I got fucking torched tonight. by far my worst event and i couldnt even watch the fights at least fml!!!
     
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  10. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Senior Moderator Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    [​IMG]

    you posted nothing about moras before the fights.
     
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  11. letmebangbrah

    letmebangbrah Blue Belt

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    smh i'm still salty about that non-stoppage. +2100 could have saved my night a bit.
     
  12. SBJJ

    SBJJ Silver Belt

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    Weird. I think it was a close fight.

    But I don't think Nunes actually landed 1 significant head strike. And I'm not sure she really landed 10 total significant strikes. Yea, she landed a lot of sort of weak kicks. But she really did get beat standing

    And I guess I'm crazy but I thought Schev won the 5th. Under new rules especially. Hell, she even won the 30 seconds she was on her back. I thought the 5th was way clearer for Schev than the first was for Nunes
     
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  13. mmaHobbyist

    mmaHobbyist Blue Belt

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    $1 each bet?
     
  14. lifeisgood12345

    lifeisgood12345 Blue Belt

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    Does it matter? I'm not trying to brag, I am just trying to understand what makes these markets tick.

    I didn't post about Moras bc I only made a tiny bet on Moras. I didn't understand why anybody would want to bet on AES as a big fave, so I assumed there was some sharp reason I was missing. My stat model isn't great yet and I am new to UFC betting so I'm approaching with a bit of caution here.

    For somebody who loves to talk about helping each other win you aren't being too helpful here.
     
  15. 2bet

    2bet Orange Belt

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    raketmannen already answered your question.
    Your hindsight does not matter but it's annoying and not helpful in any way either
     
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  16. Wiktoruspro

    Wiktoruspro Green Belt

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    this was my worst betting event ever
     
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  17. rille31

    rille31 Brown Belt

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    great event for me, was dog huntin so up like 25 u

    hope eweryone came out ok
     
  18. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Got out of this one ok due to quite a few dogs hitting: Glenn was big for me, Stephens, Latifi, and Nunes. Unfortunately, favorites weren't to good for me. Only hit there on RDA and Nunes/Shev starts 2.
     
  19. MidgardSerpent

    MidgardSerpent Brown Belt

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    Cool, just realized today my over 2.5 subs @ +464 also hit. Sprinkled $25 on that. Makes my overall profit across 3 bookies a little over $600. Mostly bombed at the start of the night with the Adriano/KJ fight, had Martins ITD and made a last minute bet on the under 1.5.
     
  20. Slohog

    Slohog Green Belt

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    It's not a huge swing, probably a bunch of people parlaying whatever against a non-athletic grappler with more red flags then communist china.

    I put a small bet on Moras out of general princip when the line peaked out before the fight but that was mostly a tilted dumb bet since I was down and AES isn't good enough to be that big a favorite. That said I don't think line was super unreasonable given what we knew pre fight.
     

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