UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim

[cberasi]

Why do you like Sterling? Who do you favor if it stays standing?

 

[EzFlyer]

Why do you like Sterling? Who do you favor if it stays standing?

honestly: i'm playing the line movement on this one, i think there's a lot of dissension on barao etc.

i favor barao if it stays standing but sterling prolly has the better chin

 

[EzFlyer]

taking shelton +130. i think it's a close fight; i'm impressed by brooks, but the dude is so tiny for 125... shelton's gonna have a size edge etc

 

[Slohog]

There's at least one line there I think is pretty dumb, but it's not open on my sites yet.

Wanted Dober too but line is currently -300. Talk about dropping like a stone.

 

[mkess101]

I'm gonna play Cerrone +140 and itd +287. I'm trying to figure this fight out, and in the end I can't help but think the all out wars that Robbie has been in have finally taken their toll. And getting blasted by Woodley his last time out doesn't help.

I realize Cerrone has taken some punishment too and got pounded by Masvidal last time out, but I do think he's moderately less shopworn. And I think his superior grappling can make a difference too. Robbie's counter-wrestling is great, but Cerrone is a sub threat from anywhere and is the better overall grappler. I also think his muy thai kicking game will play a role.

I slightly favor Cerrone here, and dog odds are too good to pass up imo.

 

[Subli]

Where can i watch (or download) Calvin Kattar fights?

Any rusky youtube channel uploading CES cards ?

 

[OutRun]

I'm gonna play Cerrone +140 and itd +287. I'm trying to figure this fight out, and in the end I can't help but think the all out wars that Robbie has been in have finally taken their toll. And getting blasted by Woodley his last time out doesn't help.

I realize Cerrone has taken some punishment too and got pounded by Masvidal last time out, but I do think he's moderately less shopworn. And I think his superior grappling can make a difference too. Robbie's counter-wrestling is great, but Cerrone is a sub threat from anywhere and is the better overall grappler. I also think his muy thai kicking game will play a role.

I slightly favor Cerrone here, and dog odds are too good to pass up imo.

Robbie Lawler's got his own kicking game too for what it's worth, but his offensive boxing will carve Cerrone up. Cerrone doesn't have the head movement to survive for long against a brawler like Lawler, and I don't see the ground game becoming relevant at all. Now for soft factors:

- It has been a full year since Robbie got OHKO'd, but six months since Cowboy got ko'd twice in the same fight. Robbie's got more rest. Robbie also has a helluva chin in other situations; Cowboy gets rocked every fight whilst Robbie ate shot after shot from Rory and kept standing.
- Cowboy might still be feeling lingering effects of his groin injury. At any rate, he's certainly in worse shape than Robbie.
- Size advantage (Cowboy's taller but we can all agree Robbie's got a thicker frame; Robbie was a MW who now fights WW, Cowboy was a LW who now fights WW)

Bum-level betting factors (that might still be relevant):

-Cowboy gets spooked easily, and Robbie is notorious for doing that to people.

 

[onC]

o1.5 for Cyborg/Evinger is +220 already. That just seems too high, Evinger is though as shit.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Volkan Got tagged alot against osp. If Manuva hits him IT will be night night.

 

[Oblivian]

Lamas has never lost by sub, but prior to the Knight fight, Skelly had 0 losses by ko or sub and Knight broke his arm with an omoplata and knocked him out later in the fight.

I know that I can't compare Skelly's and Lamas' opponents, but it shows how dangerous Knight is.

A KO was waiting to happen with Skelly honestly. He gasses so hard and gets nailed standing quite often. Knight's style is absolutely perfect for a guy like Skelly, similar to how Elkins style was as well. Anyone that can bring the pressure and is a strong grappler should do ok against him.

I think Lamas is a tough matchup for Knight. Knight's pressure and toughness may be the difference though. On a skill for skill basis, I have to give the edge to Lamas mainly because of his wrestling.

 

[Thunderflash500]

I bet on Woodley, enough to win $100 if he wins. I was contemplating betting much more, but I'll play it a bit more safe.

For one, getting taken down doesn't mean you're automatically submitted. I think Maia will gas and get knocked out. I think it's almost guaranteed.

 

[piglord]

so far i'm on knight £200 returns £400 and moicano £226 returns £526 (early line).

i might still play juiced dober at -300 if i can find a parlay partner on tuesday night.

that might be it for me, the main card looks like a snake pit for betting.

 

[piglord]

Where can i watch (or download) Calvin Kattar fights?

Any rusky youtube channel uploading CES cards ?

if anyone gets round to watching tape, intel please. fili is a hard guy to trust as a big fav unless calvin is terrible.

 

[wack3d]

Dober -300 is this real life? i would not touch him even if he was -150 i know Burkman have lost alot lately but it was against fighters hwo would also easily beat Dober imo

 

[vkram]

Kinda surprised that Sterling is the favourite. I like the guy but he hasn't looked that impressive lately. Barao has great TDD so this is likely to be a stand up fight where Barao probably has the edge. I think it will probably be a split decision.

 

[mkess101]

Robbie Lawler's got his own kicking game too for what it's worth, but his offensive boxing will carve Cerrone up. Cerrone doesn't have the head movement to survive for long against a brawler like Lawler, and I don't see the ground game becoming relevant at all. Now for soft factors:

- It has been a full year since Robbie got OHKO'd, but six months since Cowboy got ko'd twice in the same fight. Robbie's got more rest. Robbie also has a helluva chin in other situations; Cowboy gets rocked every fight whilst Robbie ate shot after shot from Rory and kept standing.
- Cowboy might still be feeling lingering effects of his groin injury. At any rate, he's certainly in worse shape than Robbie.
- Size advantage (Cowboy's taller but we can all agree Robbie's got a thicker frame; Robbie was a MW who now fights WW, Cowboy was a LW who now fights WW)

Bum-level betting factors (that might still be relevant):

-Cowboy gets spooked easily, and Robbie is notorious for doing that to people.

Your first point is relevant. Robbie has had more time to recover. That's fair, and definiitely needs to be taken into account.

Cowboy "gets rocked in every fight"? Brown clipped him yes, and obviously Masvidal blew him up. But prior to that Cote barely touched him, Story barely touched him. It's a big exaggeration to say he "gets rocked in every fight".

Lawler throws kicks, and yes they can be effective, but they aren't on Cerrone's level. Robbie does have better hands, I agree.

I'm of the belief that prolonged beatings (even in fights where a guy wins) have a more profound effect long-term than just getting KO'd. Robbie has arguably taken more punishment in just his fights with Rory and Condit than Cerrone has in years. Maybe in Cerrone's whole career.

I think the ground game is a relevant factor for a few reasons. Cerrone has become good with timing TD's. He lulls guys into thinking he just wants a kickboxing contest, then hits a quick surprise double. Obviously Robbie's TDD is stellar, so maybe that won't matter. But even if you believe that Cerrone can't take Robbie down, the grappling still matters. Because it gives Cerrone another way to finish if he does hurt Robbie. Cerrone is terrific at turning a strike that stuns an opponent into a sub. On the flipside, if Robbie hurts Cerrone but Cerrone isn't completely out of it, Cerrone can conceivably use his guard to survive.

I do think your point about Cerrone's injury is something to consider though. With someone else, maybe not. But he is the kind of guy who'd fight hurt, so that's for sure something to think about.

In the end, I'd bet either guy as a dog honestly. I very, VERY slightly favor Cerrone but absolutely wouldn't be shocked if Robbie won. At all. If the odds were flipped and Robbie was +140, most likely I'd be betting him.

 

[mkess101]

o1.5 for Cyborg/Evinger is +220 already. That just seems too high, Evinger is though as shit.

That's getting into bettable territory. You just wonder if being tough against other women is enough against a woman who almost hits like a man.

 

[mkess101]

I bet on Woodley, enough to win $100 if he wins. I was contemplating betting much more, but I'll play it a bit more safe.

For one, getting taken down doesn't mean you're automatically submitted. I think Maia will gas and get knocked out. I think it's almost guaranteed.

Getting taken down doesn't automatically mean you're getting subbed, of course not. But IF Maia hits a TD and has Woodley on his back with any time at all to work, Woodley will be living an absolute nightmare. He will be in quicksand, praying he can hold on. And in that scenario, yes someone will gas. But it won't be Maia. Woodley having to defend off his back against a grappler on Maia's level if gonna make Woodley a walking zombie, maybe even after just one round of it. Woodley can go 5 rounds when there's long periods of staring at the other guy in a standup fight (like both vs Wonderboy). He doesn't have the gas tank to last 7 or 8 minutes trying to fend off a grappler like Maia on the mat.

If you think Woodley just stuffs all the TD's or is always able to get right back up, that's one thing. Then yes, he probably wins by KO. But thinking Woodley can get taken down and it's Maia's gas tank that's gonna get sapped is just way way wrong. Maia has shown he can play his game for at least 3 rounds. Woodley has gassed and slowed down in much less taxing situations then defending on the mat vs an elite grappler like Maia.

 

[quincy k]

Your first point is relevant. Robbie has had more time to recover. That's fair, and definiitely needs to be taken into account.

Cowboy "gets rocked in every fight"? Brown clipped him yes, and obviously Masvidal blew him up. But prior to that Cote barely touched him, Story barely touched him. It's a big exaggeration to say he "gets rocked in every fight".

Lawler throws kicks, and yes they can be effective, but they aren't on Cerrone's level. Robbie does have better hands, I agree.

I'm of the belief that prolonged beatings (even in fights where a guy wins) have a more profound effect long-term than just getting KO'd. Robbie has arguably taken more punishment in just his fights with Rory and Condit than Cerrone has in years. Maybe in Cerrone's whole career.

I think the ground game is a relevant factor for a few reasons. Cerrone has become good with timing TD's. He lulls guys into thinking he just wants a kickboxing contest, then hits a quick surprise double. Obviously Robbie's TDD is stellar, so maybe that won't matter. But even if you believe that Cerrone can't take Robbie down, the grappling still matters. Because it gives Cerrone another way to finish if he does hurt Robbie. Cerrone is terrific at turning a strike that stuns an opponent into a sub. On the flipside, if Robbie hurts Cerrone but Cerrone isn't completely out of it, Cerrone can conceivably use his guard to survive.

I do think your point about Cerrone's injury is something to consider though. With someone else, maybe not. But he is the kind of guy who'd fight hurt, so that's for sure something to think about.

In the end, I'd bet either guy as a dog honestly. I very, VERY slightly favor Cerrone but absolutely wouldn't be shocked if Robbie won. At all. If the odds were flipped and Robbie was +140, most likely I'd be betting him.

iirc, before lawlers fight with condit robbie had absorbed over 500 head strikes since his return to the ufc.

 

[mkess101]

iirc, before lawlers fight with condit robbie had absorbed over 500 head strikes since his return to the ufc.

Sounds right. Honestly, he's one of my favorite fighters ever. I'm 40 now and was following MMA even back when Robbie was a young kid coming out of Pat Miletich's gym. He's always been amazing to watch. But yeah, he's taken an absolutely unreal amount of punishment over the years.