UFC 214 - Jones vs Cormier II - Anaheim | Page 4

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. MidgardSerpent Brown Belt

    MidgardSerpent
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    Taylor or tailor? :)

    I agree though, an athletic wrestler with big power in a 5 rounder, I think this is gonna end badly for Maia.
     
    #61
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  2. Thunderflash500 Double Yellow Card

    Thunderflash500
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    To be fair I corrected that post before I read this one lol

    My argument for why I'm thinking of going huge-

    Maia gasses out, is slow, and submissions take time. A submission seems to be his only chance of victory. The likelihood of him getting Woodley down is lower than anyone he's fought recently. I can see Woodley knocking him out in round one. Or any round. Basically at any time Maia could lose. And he most likely will lose rounds. He has almost no chance of winning this, even if Woodley has a bad night. Maia's best bet is winning in round one if he gives everything he has for a takedown and submission. After round one it's probably over for him.
     
    #62
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
  3. MidgardSerpent Brown Belt

    MidgardSerpent
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    Oh okay, thought you genuinely didn't know, no harm done. :)
     
    #63
  4. Sapp Purple Belt

    Sapp
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    Not going to touch the main event here, I cant be objective.

    Woodley seems like a steal at this price. Can anyone make a case for Volkan?
     
    #64
  5. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    I agree Woodley seems tailor made in one way to murk Maia, but don't wanna go big on T-Wood cause he:
    -Throws way to little volume to keep Maia off him. A active jab would be great.
    - Backs himself into the fence where Maia is the strongest.
    - Maia gets everyone back. He just does and it's magic.

    I'll likely just play the under, I have no idea how this will go. Could be a staring contest for 25 minute, or any guy getting a finish in round 1.
     
    #65
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2017
  6. Orion Brown Belt

    Orion
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    Ehhhhh
     
    #66
  7. northsofia White Belt

    northsofia
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    Think to play Woodley @1.57 but hedging with Maia RD1, just waiting to see the line for it
    Lamas @2.00? Have i missed something? Lamas is one of the most well rounded fighters in the division and has fought the best. What can Knight do to get the win?
     
    #67
  8. weedreference Green Belt

    weedreference
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    Knight's striking has improved every fight... I think it'll be close on the feet, though he will probably struggle with leg kicks. It's also conceivable he'll be able to work some offensive grappling. I have Lamas for 1u right now as a slight dog, but I'll definitely switch if I can get Knight at +150ish at some point.

    I like Cerrone at +140... I lean slightly his way. I think he may be being undervalued because of his last performance, but everything was wrong for him in that matchup (if he's not mentally there, which he wasn't, then he is terrible). He usually bounces back well, though, and I trust Lawler to head hunt and not to go after his weak body.
     
    #68
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  9. michi972 Blue Belt

    michi972
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    Probably gonna play Manuwa, imo he is better on points and when it comes to KO.The only way I see it going to the ground is after knockdown or slippery.
    Woodley seems like a bad matchup for Demian, but Demian took down everyone in 170, Macdonald single leg after successful sprawl and slam double while being gassed, if he gets Woodley down I think it will be easier to hold down than with Rory (whom he mounted or Masvidal) and to finish or pass.
     
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  10. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    I think this is a no-brainer taking lamas as the dog. dude is 8-3 in the ufc fighting pertty much the elite of the elite. His three losses? aldo, mendes, holloway.

    in fact, in his last loss, to holloway.. he was never really even close to being finished, and that's saying a lot considering how holloway is blasting everyone else.

    he took everything chucky olives had and came back to finish the dude in his last fight.. is knight better than chucky olives? i don't think he's done anything to suggest that...

    lamas has the power edge, strength edge, wrestling edge, experience edge... and he's the dog? makes no sense to me.
     
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  11. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    Totally agree. But just to play devil's advocate, Lamas is getting up there in age a bit. At 35 his best is probably behind him and we'll probably start to see a decline sooner rather than later.

    Also, he was in a terrible position at the end of round 1 against Olives and he may have been saved by the bell there (at the same time Olives did come in 10lbs over for that fight). I also agree that at this stage of his career I don't think it would be fair to even compare Knight to Oliveira. But, I do think that Knight has a grittiness to him that Olives doesn't, i.e. he might not have have tapped to the guillotine that Lamas finished Olives with.

    All that said, I'm on Lamas for 1u at +105 and I'm thinking about adding more. Huge step up in competition for Knight.
     
    #71
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  12. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    yep. it's not without risks obviously and i agree, you bring up some valid concerns ^^
     
    #72
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  13. Ballsaque Purple Belt

    Ballsaque
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    Be better, which he is.
     
    #73
  14. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
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    Maia has shown the ability to doggedly pursue takedowns for 3 rounds. I think if the fight isn't over by end of rd 3 it's doubtful he'd have much left in the tank at all, but assuming he only has one round of cardio is way off. He's done it for 3 rounds multiple times.

    Sub probably is Maia's chance to win, I agree with that. But it's a pretty good chance. You are underrating him a lot. Yes Woodley could land a bomb at any time and finish, no doubt. But Maia's ability to get ahold of the single and drive through to the hips is elite. And while I agree Woodley probably will be a bigger challenge than Maia has had in terms of his athleticism and ability to sprawl, Maia has shown he's playing chess with his grappling while everyone else is playing checkers. He is a master at taking an inch of space at a time, until (as @Shoulder pointed out) he "magically" has his opponent's back. But it's not "magic", he just is a step ahead in where he moves when his opponents react to what he's doing. It's why you see him take so many guys' backs even without getting the TD. He'll run the pipe as well as anyone, but then as his opponent adjusts and even begins to turn his hips to stay on balance, Maia will slide outside a bit and force his opponent to make a choice. And he feels their movement and simply adjusts better and faster than anyone else.

    Once he has ahold of the single and has closed in, you are in survival mode. You are defending being dragged down by the single but also simultaneously defending him sliding around and taking your back. And he's better at that game than you are. Now Woodley may just have the strength and wrestling to shut it down. Maybe. Or maybe he lands a bomb before he has to defend it. But if Maia gets the leg and runs the pipe, it could be the beginning of the end. Obviously Woodley can't give Maia his back, but nor can he get dragged to the mat and end up on the bottom. He may not be able to survive on the mat all that long vs Maia. I can't remember if Woodley has grappled much with any good submission fighters, but I cannot believe he has the chops to survive long on his back vs someone of Maia's caliber.
     
    #74
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  15. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    Wood could blast Maia away in r1 so im fully aware this is risky but i don't trust Wood. I will be putting a decent sized bet on Maia sub (and i never really play props). I think if Wood is on his back/Maia's on his back this is over.
     
    #75
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  16. OutRun Dreaming of his heroes, and in love with a girl.

    OutRun
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    I think Woodley wins this over 70 percent of the time; he has the TDD to keep this standing, and the power to put Maia's lights out. I don't think Woodley will have respect for Maia's striking the way he did for Wonderboy or Rory, and it's a fear for the opponent's striking that causes Woodley to back up against the cage. It will take only one blacksplosive blitz for him to ice Maia, but even if it doesn't then we know he has the stamina for an active five rounds, whereas Maia doesn't.

    This will also be the shortest camp of Maia's UFC career. I think Maia will gas himself through endless unsuccessful takedown attempts and be knocked out before the end of the 2nd. I'm on Woodley at 1.55
     
    #76
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  17. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    My thoughts exactly.

    I don't like that Maia is being forced to take this fight so soon, though. Is he even getting his normal full camp? Not to mention having to make the weight cut again so soon at his age might take away from his gas tank which already is an issue for him. Also, Masvidal was lighting up Maia's legs with kicks. Woodley has brutal leg kicks in his arsenal. Maia definitely won't want to eat too many of them.

    Like @Sham5916910, I'm waiting to see the price on Maia by sub (or even ITD as it's likely to be very similar) before making a play. I do think that if he wins, it's by sub the majority of the time. I don't know if Woodley will have as much success defending as guys like Masvidal and Brown did if Maia gets him in a dangerous position.
     
    #77
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  18. michi972 Blue Belt

    michi972
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    If we talk about cardio, I think if Maia will tire himself on takedowns, Woodley will gass out as well if not more.
     
    #78
  19. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Tebowned
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    #79
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  20. rille31 Brown Belt

    rille31
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    Im not sure who's got the worst cardio

    Only reason woodley was able to go 5 rounds was because he stared at wonderboy 90% of the time saving energy for those explosions, what will happen with his cardio if maia grinds on him
     
    #80
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