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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.
One of the reasons (not the only one, but one of them) that Maia's chain wrestling is so good is that he can ALWAYS ride it out and attempt to complete the TD. Meaning most guys in MMA when they change levels and start trying to take someone down (esp against the cage) will stop the pursuit if they feel themselves getting off balance or in a spot where they might be the one that ends up on their back. Counter-wrestling in MMA is probably the thing that's improved the most as a whole over the last 10-15 years. Generally, NOBODY wants to end up on their back in an MMA fight. Not strikers for sure, and not grapplers either really. Maia's guard and overall grappling game are at a level where he is the rare exception that absolutely doesn't care if he ends up on his back. There's numerous reasons. His guard is obviously elite. His ability to sweep is elite. His overall grappling game from any position is elite. He's in that top tier .0000001% of MMA fighters with his grappling game. The other reason is that his striking ISN'T that good. So pretty much anyone that would end up with top position on him is just going to be looking to get the hell up and strike some more.
I'm not gona gif hunt, but I've seen Maia multiple times get stuffed on his initial TD attempt to the point where the other guy has actually managed to disengage and has broken contact and Maia is on his knees facing him and Maia STILL pursues the TD. Almost everyone else in MMA resets at that point and gives up on that attempt.
I see Maia getting ahold of a single, Woodley stuffing it, and when Maia tries to drag Woodley to the mat a scramble ensuing where Maia eventually gets what he wants. It might not happen on the first TD attempt or the second, but I think it does happen. Maybe Woodley blasts Maia with a big shot first, but I like Maia by sub here.
The fight is off
I had a two second panic attack when I saw your text and the tweet was loading. Out of all fights on the card this is the one I'm cool with losing.
Why, it's always a pleasure to watch Sage get's savaged, no homo
If someone says "the fight is off" I don't think they mean a undercard fight, I assume they mean at least a main card fight. I like Sage, but rather him than one of the champ-fights.
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 | 2017.07.29 | Anaheim, California
UFC Welterweight Title
Demian Maia +135
Tyron Woodley -175
Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100
UFC Women's Featherweight Title
Tonya Evinger +600
Cristiane Justino -1200
Over 1.5 +190
Under 1.5 -270
Donald Cerrone +135
Robbie Lawler -175
Over 2.5 -120
Under 2.5 -120
Volkan Oezdemir +150
Jimi Manuwa -190
Over 1.5 +115
Under 1.5 -155
Ricardo Lamas -110
Jason Knight -130
Over 2.5 -185
Under 2.5 -145
Pretty surprised to see Knight as the favorite...
yea lamas is the only one i am thinking about at these prices, but prolly passing on all for now...
hope i don't regret passing on U2.5 +100 on twood-maia
took lamas opener -110, i don't like fading knight but i think lamas is on another level. think he can get takedowns if he wants, too
so far looks like twood getting bet.. maia up to +160.. still mulling it over.. i did honestly favor twood here, hoped he would be even money.
Christ, I'll take Woodley at 1.5 in a heartbeat.
lamas +105 now.. adding... have to...
But Mississippi mean is so much more fun to bet on
Was really hoping for +150 or so on Knight and I was planning to go big. Moreso because I love his style than how I actually cap the fight.
EZ is right though, have to play Lamas at these odds. Massive step up in competition and clear path to victory with his wrestling. Hopefully this Luca guy or whatever is name is ends up on Lamas and we get a massive odds shift.
Took some maia +175
I can only get -105 but I love that price took 1.5u... I see value in this down to -150.
price dictates play!
I'm thinking of going Huge on Woodley. He seems tailor made to destroy Maia.