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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.
Free money parlay: JJ, cyborg, manuwa
Also on the card Lawler vs Cerrone!!!
Gonna be awesome.
Anyone really like Jarred Brooks to take a dominant decision? Shelton fades bad iirc and Brooks pours it on.
I'm gonna be at the fights and in Orange County area all week. Anyone in the OC area wanna get rolled up? Gonna hit up Brea Jiu-jitsu for sure and wanna go to at least one more.
JJ unanimous decision is the play here. But I hope that D.C. wins, that would be so incredible sweet.
But is there a way D.C. can win this? I mean, even if Jones has ring rust, looked bad vs OSP and his mama just died, I still don't see how Jones loses this.
I have been maybe the biggest proponent of anyone I can remember for Jon Jones as the most talented MMA fighter ever. His run through the LHW division is the most impressive thing I've ever seen in MMA when taking into account who he beat and how easily he did it. Better than Silva's run through MW, better than Fedor's run at HW. The only close fight Jones had was Gus, he steamrolled everyone else. And the division was stacked. He's never actually lost in the cage.
All that said, paying this type of juice here...nope. As mentioned above by Shoulder, there's a lot of outside factors at play here. Jones did look lackluster vs OSP. There will most likely be some ring rust. And while DC is nearing the end of his career just due to his age, he doesn't have nearly the mileage that some of the younger guys have in terms of damage taken.
Do I favor Jones to win? Yeah, for sure. I don't see how he can't be favored. But -250 in this spot? Not a freaking chance for me. I'd start to consider him maybe at -175 or so. At these odds, if forced, I'd play DC smaller than laying this juice on Jones.
One of my biggest bets at the time was Jones vs Cormier 1. It was close to -160 iirc.
In this spot I'll still bet on Jones for action but nothing crazy. That'll change when I'm losing all night and chase on t wood + Jones parlay.
Only play so far is 0.5u on Jones SUB +790.
True Jon jones is just a bad stylistic matchup for Dc all around.
This is the prime time for dc to get a win here. Jones will have to be on his game to win this fight. Dc is gonna have to break his cardio. The jones who fought osp can be beat.
I favor jones but i am considering playing dc, especially if his line gets up to around +300
I really agree with dc that jones losing to him will be the best thing for his career. I think he needs to be humbled.
Is anyone even contemplating that the Jones that fought OSP was the first time jones was 100% clean?
The Jones that fought OSP can be beat by DC
Possibly, but also ring rust could have been a factor. Either way, Cormier at these odds is tempting. Jones is best when he's confident, and I don't think he's going to be here.
would cailin curran have been cut by now if she looked like ediane gomes?
That version of Jones WOULD get beat by DC.
I expect Jones to put on a much better performance than that, but it can't be discounted that rust could have been one of the primary reasons. And if it was, there's a chance he's a bit off like that again.
I have no issue with people believing Jones wins again. Hell, I think he does if forced to pick a winner. But -250 with all these questions surrounding him? Cannot believe people would pay that juice.
Yea. not buying his excuse
Peoples love paying juice these days
How did JJ look bad against OSP? Because he didn't get the finish?
I will bet Tyron Woodley for sure, he is the worst matchup for Demian Maia in the dyvision
On the other hand, Tyron loves to back up to the fence where Maia does his best work. I just keep seeing Maia at some point getting his back, cause he always does.
I think him looking bad against OSP is overblown as well. It was a short notice fight from which he had very little to gain and everything to lose. He treated it as such and played it super cautious, yet still won an easy 50-45 (50-44 on one card).
I'm not saying I'm willing to play Jones at -250. There are obviously a ton of red flags coming in, but IMO the OSP fight isn't one of them.