UFC 211 - Stipe vs JDS II - Dallas - Part III

[Sham5916910]

Bets so far..


Alvarez+JJ
5U = 15U

Skelly DEC 3.2u = 8.9u

Gordon/Quinones O2.5
Christensen
Reyes/Vick O1.5
Alvarez ITD
0.5u = 18.6u


Jotko
Aguilar
Masvidal
Edgar
Skelly
2u = 33.1u


Vick r2
Skelly r3
JDS ITD
Jotko DEC
Sherman
0.5u = 537u


Couple of lottos :-

Sherman/Coulter O1.5
Christensen
Alvarez ITD
Masvidal ITD
JJ ITD
Cejudo ITD
Edgar ITD
0.1u = 814u


Alvarez DEC
Masvidal DEC
Skelly DEC
Edgar DEC
Aguilar
Vick ITD
Sherman

0.2u = 103u


Last week I predicted a Leites win after analysis and I should've backed that a bit more strongly...
This week my pick is Chas Skelly...
I really like Jason Knight as a fighter, in fact he is probably my favourite and I have backed him every time he's gone into the octagon. Chas Skelly however is a fighter I am also familiar with and with his skill-set and rugged determination I think that he will cause Jason Knight more problems than he can handle. Jason Knight and Chas Skelly are typically rugged fighters, both with a medium-high paced aggressive press who are both comfortable with the fight being brought to the ground. I don't see Knight having the firepower to put away the tenacious Skelly in the first couple of rounds, nor the superior submission game to lock Skelly up. Skelly has had questions raised with his cardio.. however his fight against Elkins proved a few doubters that he could fight for the distance. Knights flaw lately has been his third round, he tends to hang in there and do a Mike Perry.. blocking punches with his face.

I see Skelly surviving a Knight ground scramble at the end of the first round, ultimately turning it into a striking matchup in the 2nd and 3rd with several failed mutual takedowns. Skelly to out volume Knight in the 3rd to take a unanimous win.

Good luck with the event fellas

Dude i soooo disagree with you. The elkins fight did not show he can fight the distance lol he fuckin gassed horribly hence elkins taking over from r2. And there is no possible reason to think skelly out volumes knight in r3 that is a ridiculous thing to say.

 

[thewiggo]

We shall see, will be an interesting one. I honestly feel that'll be how this fight pans out tho, I'm a huge fan of Knight though that kid doesn't give a fuck about money he just loves to fight

 

[EzFlyer]

prior thread: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-211-stipe-vs-jds-ii-dallas-part-ii.3523723/

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Highlights of my BD's for full version go HERE or I'll place it in SPOILER to save some space. I just know it looks like shit on mobile especially with a 40 foot vertical wall of text LOL… Nevertheless HYG :


185lbs- #9 KRZYSZTOF JOTKO (19-1-0) vs DAVID BRANCH (20-3-0)

Spoiler

Surging middleweights clash ....the 27-year-old, Polish prospect Krzysztof Jotko looks to put an end to the stream of momentum that current WSOF Middle and Light-Heavyweight champion David Branch ...

Jotko is a multi dimensional fighter ..has the ability to defeat his opponent at their own game. .. flatlined the surging Tamden McCrory with a kill shot in the first ..out grappled BJJ player Thales Leites...
Branch is your prototypical grinder ...technical boxer with a + Black Belt under master Renzo Gracie. ...aesthetically as dull as a 20-year-old pencil but consistently wins an ugly grinding affair .. very strong.

...Branch has reeled of 10 in a row with victories over the likes of Dustin Jacoby, Jesse Taylor, Yushin Okami and Vinny Magalhaes among others....won 12 of his last 13 ... lone setback .. a UD loss against Anthony "Rumble" Johnson.

... Jotko is eight years the junior with the discrepancy of 27 and 35 years of age respectively. ....Jotko is the quicker, more athletic of the two which will benefit him in the TDs and scrambles. The southpaw Jotko is an effective striker, executing terrific kicks from the fringe followed up with robust punching combinations in the pocket... speed and TDD of the Pole make the difference

Prediction: Jotko via decision

155lbs- MARCO POLO REYES (8-3-0) vs JAMES VICK (9-1-0)

Spoiler

At ...Marco is a Muay-Thai wrecking machine who thrives on chaos. .. power in all four of his limbs. .. fires shots from every conceivable angle with his hands and whip sharp kicking game targets all levels....educated jab...ferocious left hook and blistering straight right. ..works to the body ..... ia rarity with high-level MMA strikers even today. Not great athlete ..average speed..can afford execute spinning techniques great out of the clinch.

...biggest issue.. inability to slip punches. ..

Significant advantage of Vick — besides the cleaner striking — is the grappling. ..

...Vick is able to sneak long limbs into weird spots .. find myriad chokes ... high elbow guillotine and variations of front chokes .i.e. D'arce and Anaconda.

Reyes has poor TDD .. exacerbated by constant forward aggression ... used against him. ..Vick is serviceable wrestler w/ good offensive TDs ...VERY underrated BJJ ....Novelli had his back .. saved x the horn ..

Vick’s pace and will gas Reyes ..

.. Marco needs early knock out ...reach + td's = win for JV..

Bet: both fighters are too vulnerable to being finished to risk money on ..clear dog or pass w/ Vick -400 ...."Texecutioner" has a bad habit of keeping his chin in the air, and Marco is heavy-handed. ..Reyes great at landing KO blows shots out the clinch. ...


Prediction: Vick by submission.

145lbs- CHAS SKELLY (17-2-0) vs JASON KNIGHT (19-2-0)

Spoiler

Gritty, grimy and straight up "Mississippi mean", Jason "The Kid "Knight is a beast .... 24-year-old is a essentially Muay-Thai styled striker with a terrific Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game and a fantastic guard.

Perpetually on his front foot, Knight is always throwing numbers with his hands and is an equal opportunity offender when it comes to targeting the anatomy. ..loves throwing a lot of oblique kicks. He doesn't possess big power ..is content to pile up singles, doubles, and triples

..best asset is his rubber guard. .. very flexible and can tie you up up like a pretzel.

..adept at implementing psychological warfare. Love to talk smack in between shots to the face. .., taunting him with the chants of, "Let's go baby! Let's go!" Come for that take down, that's what you want bitch!"

The baddest man on the bayou is a shit talking volume puncher whose wicked guard has snared many of submissions including the ultra rare gogoplata. There attributes sound familiar? They should which is why I affectionately refer to the "Kid" as Hick Diaz.
..
Skelly ... hometown fighter ... superb on the mats in high school with an overall record of 164-3 ... .. a NAIA All-American for Oklahoma City University.

..worked years with grappling guru Marc Laimon .. sound technical abilities of Skelly are augmented by his advantageous physical features. .. 5'11" and inordinately long 73 inch reach..

... previously trained with amateur wrestling legend Kenny Monday, now with three time NCAA D-1 wrestling champion Greg Jones. ..grappling instructor with UFC fighter and BJJ ace Gilbert Burns.

.. has made the biggest strides is in is striking. Under renowned Dutch kickboxing master Henri Hooft.

..training at Combat Club .. access to top level sparring partners ..Robbie Lawler and Sean Soriano in particular + Kamaru Usman and Michael Johnson ..

..neither is going to concede defeat easily. Stylistically .. the one area that separates them is the wrestling. .. Skelly have excellent TDs + foremost hole in Knight arsenal = TDD ... once on his back he is too eager to grapple..

Very unlikely that you are going to submit Skelly from his back. ...

If Knight can force Skelly to routinely work for the TD he can have success late ..superior cardio. ...
...I think the over 2.5 is the most likely outcome of this contest.

Prediction: Skelly by unanimous decision

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Sham,

I missed the last thread to comment on your DP analysis. I generally concur but something just seems off with DP. He lost his main training partner in Lawler and I am a bit concerned he isn't there mentally. He is one of my favorite fighters and love him but he seems to be a bit whiney for DP. Maybe I'm overreacting but I like DP when he is angry, hungry and confident. I've followed him for a long time and I don't see it here. It has me passing for now.

 

[ChoKuRei]

Laid the juice on alvarez, will post slip later

 

[Orion]

R1: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 10-9)
R2: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 20-18)
R3: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 30-27)
R4: Joanna 10-9 (Andrade 39-37)
R5: Joanna 10-8 (DRAW 47-47)

With the talk about looking for spots to pick a draw, I really like this one and could see this happening if Andrade gets the upper hand early on and JJ heats up over time per usual.

edit: credit to TheKingOwl from the last thread for the quoted

 

[cagebrain]

With the talk about looking for spots to pick a draw, I really like this one and could see this happening if Andrade gets the upper hand early on and JJ heats up over time per usual.

really good point, although I still think the Maia draw is more likely because a 10-8 in one round for either guy is far more likely than in JJ/JA.

Still tho, some value. Tailed.

 

[cagebrain]

@EzFlyer I concur with your Frankie thoughts. Gonna hit it now at -120 even though theres a good chance the line will get better after weigh ins.

If Frankie becomes the dog I will YOLO hit it again out of principle.

Fading hype = profit long term.

 

[Card]

The 9 ATT fighters

Not only are nine fighters from the camp competing on the same night, but many of them are doing so in bouts of major importance. All but one of the pay-per-view fights feature an ATT fighter, with the team hitting both title fights (Junior dos Santos and Joanna Jedrzejczyk), one likely No. 1 contender fight (Jorge Masvidal), two fights that could dramatically reshape the UFC rankings (Krzysztof Jotko and Dustin Poirier), and even the fight promoted as the featured UFC Fight Pass headliner (Jessica Aguilar).

Throw in undercard competitors Michel Quinones, Enrique Barzola, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov, plus an army of ATT coaches, and suddenly fight week in Dallas has become a family affair.

 

[Antagonist88]

Already hit Edgar decently hard at -130 so not tempted to add yet. But feel like I have to if he hits events or +odds

 

[Stunna77]

With the talk about looking for spots to pick a draw, I really like this one and could see this happening if Andrade gets the upper hand early on and JJ heats up over time per usual.

edit: credit to TheKingOwl from the last thread for the quoted

Possible, but Andrade would have to be pretty gassed IMO for JJ to earn a 10-8. Andrade will always offer offense in return and JJ doesn't have a lot of power. Without hurting someone you really have to pour on a ton of punishment with nothing coming in return to earn a 10-8. I think a more likely scenario may be an early 10-8 for Andrade and JJ squeezing out 3 10-9's.

That would be the likely draw scenario in my mind, however I don't see a draw happening because Andrade finna spank that ass

 

[chemmy]

Possible, but Andrade would have to be pretty gassed IMO for JJ to earn a 10-8. Andrade will always offer offense in return and JJ doesn't have a lot of power. Without hurting someone you really have to pour on a ton of punishment with nothing coming in return to earn a 10-8. I think a more likely scenario may be an early 10-8 for Andrade and JJ squeezing out 3 10-9's.

That would be the likely draw scenario in my mind, however I don't see a draw happening because Andrade finna spank that ass

I'm on Andrade, but JJ managed a 10-8 against Claudia, I could see the same happening late in this fight.

 

[WetBlanket]

Are the scoring changes going to be implemented at this card?

 

[Jamah]

@EzFlyer I concur with your Frankie thoughts. Gonna hit it now at -120 even though theres a good chance the line will get better after weigh ins.

If Frankie becomes the dog I will YOLO hit it again out of principle.

Fading hype = profit long term.

damn, you are starting to scare me a little bit.. You are on Maia, Edgar and JJ while I'm on Masvidal, Yair and Andrade... GL tho

 

[Sham5916910]

Andrade gonna take her out she knows there is no tomorrow unless she does!

 

[northsofia]

Maybe i am going to pass JJ/Andrade fight and not going to bet on it, but i think that JJ can earn some respect from Andrade with some good counter punchesh in the first rounds and then all will become a lot easier for her.

 

[Chris Wang]

The 9 ATT fighters

Not only are nine fighters from the camp competing on the same night, but many of them are doing so in bouts of major importance. All but one of the pay-per-view fights feature an ATT fighter, with the team hitting both title fights (Junior dos Santos and Joanna Jedrzejczyk), one likely No. 1 contender fight (Jorge Masvidal), two fights that could dramatically reshape the UFC rankings (Krzysztof Jotko and Dustin Poirier), and even the fight promoted as the featured UFC Fight Pass headliner (Jessica Aguilar).

Throw in undercard competitors Michel Quinones, Enrique Barzola, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov, plus an army of ATT coaches, and suddenly fight week in Dallas has become a family affair.

This will probably be a big advantage for the opponents...

 

[cagebrain]

damn, you are starting to scare me a little bit.. You are on Maia, Edgar and JJ while I'm on Masvidal, Yair and Andrade... GL tho

Haha yeah. I am only super condifent and big on Maia. I am medium/small on Frankie and Small on JJ (and I got her at -120. I would not bet her current line). Also I did take Andrade NSC.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

@EzFlyer I concur with your Frankie thoughts. Gonna hit it now at -120 even though theres a good chance the line will get better after weigh ins.

If Frankie becomes the dog I will YOLO hit it again out of principle.

Fading hype = profit long term.

Man forreal? Yair is a killer he didn't really fight like that against caceres bro they had a lil friendly fight. Violent yair is here in Dallas he's best bro.

Give me Yair for the win, and you bet on Frankie at - odds. Not cool man

I'm only betting on one fight tho and that's Maia. That fight is very intriguing and the fight I'm most looking forward to beside the main event