UFC 211 pbp/discussion/etc | Page 64

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, May 13, 2017.

  1. pytycrys Blue Belt

    pytycrys
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    Things to take after UFC 211 IMO:
    -Yair another inflated prospect that was shut down by a veteran. He's good but nowhere near the top5 at this point.
    -Frankie still got it
    -Maia is slick as a snake, will be interesting to see how this will go vs Tyron. If Maia-Woodley in the future, why not make Masvidal - Wonderboy
    -Knight very tough kid and a good prospect
    -JJ is what Cruz was for bantamweight a few year ago. Her movement and striking is godlike and she's not losing that title anytime soon. I felt stupid for betting on Andrade.
    -Eddie still got a fucking chin and heart, it will definetely be interesting to see what happens from now on with him.
    ..and the most important thing
    -Sherman is a fucking bum!
     
    #1261
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  2. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    "Kenny Rice is my mentor" -Todd Grisham
    See Jake Shields vs. T-Wood

    I'd be on Wood prolly BTW
    Odds would dictate the play though
     
    #1262
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  3. cagebrain MMA Expert Bettor

    cagebrain
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    wachu talkin bout player. Woodley vs Shields was all stand up/clinch. No ground. That fight has nothing in common with this one. Maia is not gonna be willing to strike, he is gonna be diving on legs/pulling guard.

    Maia's gonna gas himself out inside 2 rounds trying to take Tyron down, which he don't be successful at. The rest of the fight will be the two gassed guys staring at each other, Tyron throwing 2 sig strikes a minute but its gonna be enough to win the rounds. Tyron will get the KO at some point, outside chance he doesnt and he gets a decision (48-47 at the very worst IMO if Maia does have success in the first 2 rounds. I'd expect 50-45 tho)
     
    #1263
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  4. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    "Kenny Rice is my mentor" -Todd Grisham
    I did! I literally made the dumbest bad in my life maybe. Granted I only had 3.00 units on Jessica but because I left good money on the table with Joanna. I thought that the odds showed value and warranted a play on the Brazilian challenger. I was dead wrong.

    It reminded me before and after of every time that Anderson Silva would fight someone new — during his prime — of how people were always betting against him. Like literally every tim!. SD would light up. It all started with Travis Lutter getting that TD and the mount. It was supposed to be Leites then Maia then he was ducking an Okami fight/rematch. Incidentally these claims were even after he beat Hendo. It was a running theme that no one ever gave Anderson credit for developing TDD and having the best footwork.

    Alas, I made the same mistake with JJ/Andrade that I used to rake others across the coals for. The footwork is the number one asset to have in a fight when going against a brawler and Joanna is top of the food chain. This is how Jose Aldo has been able to make savages like Chad Mendes and Uriah Faber and Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Lamas all look like amateurs. Same with Andy vs. Maia/Leites/Yushin etc. it requires a Claudia who is a serviceable and/or expert wrestler to play Andy's Chael Sonnen or fighters are going to get pieced up every time.

    She is the Anderson Silva/Jose Aldo in there primes against everyone else right now.
     
    #1264
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
  5. TimCoreCombat Green Belt

    TimCoreCombat
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    Had a huge night...over $3K.

    Pretty happy. Only missed Benitez.
     
    #1265
  6. Orion Brown Belt

    Orion
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    The rule of thumb of betting against the hype paid off big last night: Maia/Edgar/JJ. Too bad I fucked up on Andrade.
     
    #1266
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  7. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Tebowned
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    Glad you're finally respecting Vick. Not saying you were disrespecting him. He's so for tall for LW.

    Re: yair
    I had a feeling that fight wasn't going the distance and bet on ITD and the under.
    I kind of fell for the hype and thought Yair was gonna ko Edgar but bet Yair fairly small. I thought Yair wouldn't look for subs on the bottom and look to scramble up.
    Glad Edgar won though and my pockets are glad he won ITD and not decision.
     
    #1267
  8. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    "Kenny Rice is my mentor" -Todd Grisham
    Yea, I'm playing devils advocate as I tend to agree. However, I will say that going at a snails pace against Wonderboy for 10 rounds is much different than going full blast at 100% every second of every round against Damien Maia. It isn't like Tyrone has excellent footwork and will be able to cut angles. Likely most of this is going to be taking place up against the cage and Woodley is going to be forced to consistently stuff takedowns and that is taxing. Also he is going to have his heart rate pumping like a kid on prom night worrying concerning himself with making a single wrong move. I mean, look at how great of cardio Jorge always has and he was gassed out at the end of the first round. Not only was this condition being a factor after five minutes, but he had completely went into a shell because he was afraid of making a mistake.

    Demien Maia forces fighters to become completely defensive. Again, look at how great of conditioning and footwork Ryan Laflare has. Bupkis! Maia worked him. Fitch. Excellent TdS/cardio TDD. Worked. Rick Story. Srong as an ox with great wrestling. Maia worked him. Chael at MW in his steroid fueled prime. Worked! Lateral drop > mat > mount > Inverted Triangle > Tap!!! Worked! Four strong wrestlers that theoretically should have been able to nullify all of Maia's TDAs based on how he looked last night. How he looked against Rory R3 and others. But, again — excuse my Yiddish — BUPKIS!

    Watching him and fighting him is a completely different animal than what it looks like on TV. It's like National Geographic video of a crocodile on the Savannah. They appear harmless enough. They even look slow of foot. Very deceiving through the TVs, as they are much faster in real life. Sitting on the couch and relative safety is a big difference them being 2 feet away from one on the Nile river lol same is true with Damien Maia. Knowing that you make one mistake and you're going to be devoured is a powerful motivator to get the heart pumping! if you don't get taken down and chewed up it's possible thati you have a fucking heart attack when you're in the same vicinity. We haven't seen Woodley have to exert this much energy and Maia forces every fighter to use their gas tank and then their reserve tanks.
     
    #1268
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  9. Slohog Green Belt

    Slohog
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    God damn it JJ looked amazing. That said I think ANdrade is a bit overrated. Like she wasn't great at 135 due to some technical deficiencies and even if her size is better att 115 it's not like she got out muscled at 135 either. I just think the technical fighters that can somewhat match her in athleticism will make her look a bit silly even in the future.

    Would've loved Rose vs Andrade but I guess Rose vs JJ is more or less booked already?
     
    #1269
  10. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    "Kenny Rice is my mentor" -Todd Grisham
    BTW Hope everyone did well last night! I ended up 5-3 for +14.81u


    I'm not advertising and all the bets here are 100% free before I'm bitched out. I just don't have the time right now to go the official picks thread and highlight and add/subtract everything. This is UFC 211 last night and MMA only last 365 days. If only I could stay away from baseball/basketball or get into a groove

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Hopefully everyone did well. I'll try to read through and catch up later. I'm tired as shit and going to bed LOL
     
    #1270
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
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  11. MMA Goodfella Jury-Jiu-Jitsu Purple Belt in capping

    MMA Goodfella
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    "Kenny Rice is my mentor" -Todd Grisham
    Andrade has a lot of Derek Brunson in her IMO
     
    #1271
  12. cagebrain MMA Expert Bettor

    cagebrain
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    Yes, the pace will be fast. But Damien has a garbage gas tank as well. If Woodley gassing out due to the pace, Maia will be too. Look how gassed Maia got vs Rory, a big strong WW with good wrestling.

    I'd argue that Woodley is the best/strongest wrestler Maia has faced since Weidman and Munoz. Both of which he lost. Those fights will have more in common with this one IMO than any of his WW fights.

    Look, you don't have to explain to me how good Damien Maia is. I was balls deep on him, 7.4 units. Biggest I've been on one guy in a long time. I capped him at -180 vs Masvidal.

    I was super confident Maia would whoop Masvidal. And I'm super confident Woodley will whoop Maia.

    If Woodley opens under -200 I'm max betting it.
     
    #1272
  13. trucido Orange Belt

    trucido
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    I'm definitely getting on board with you there. Woodley will be Maia's kryptonite.
     
    #1273
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  14. Tebowned Boise Dime.

    Tebowned
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    No she's lesbian
     
    #1274
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  15. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    Andrade is officially the worst bet ive ever made terrible terrible bet. I bet her before i watched tape on anyone else thinking id have no strong leans. After watching tape i liked dp edgar and maia but i only make one big bet per card so i didnt want to over expose myself. I nearly bought out of my andrade bet multiple times but cos i bet large amounts it meant lots of visits to different bookies and i couldnt be arsed. Rather than leaving two units on Andrade i ended up with 3.5 cos i added when her line spiked. Normally im nervous as hell as a fight ive bet on starts but i was oddly calm like i knew it was going to lose. If im not convinced on a bet im never betting it again until ive watched tape on the whole card. Im a fuckin moron. Tbf out of edgar maia and dp i probably would have taken dp but at least i would have gotten my money back. Sucks but good learning curve.
     
    #1275
  16. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Shoulder
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    I picked Forrest to beat Anderson, remember thinking I thought he could bully Anderson around. Good thing it was before i was putting money on fights...
     
    #1276
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  17. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

    lawmills2006
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    I think people are pumping Maia up too much here. He has been shut down. By Macdonald, by Weidman, and by Shields (to an extent) (Not even including Silva here). Whilst I agree there will be value in Maia at the right price, I would cap Woodley -200. Anything less and I'll be biting. Anything over that and I'll be on Maia.
     
    #1277
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  18. wack3d Silver Belt

    wack3d
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    hope you all did well last night. i got limited again on 365 so not much betting for me but did hit Cristensen(loss) Casey (win) Andrade (loss) Maia (win) Edgar (win) and hit two parlays with Casey+Sherman+Edgar+Maia+Miocic and the other with the same picks +Branch overall about +15u pretty good without my precious 365 livebet :D
     
    #1278
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  19. Wiktoruspro Orange Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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  20. Oblivian Aging

    Oblivian
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    No, I definitely was underrating him. He's one of those guys that it just takes me a while to respect his game. Chiesa was like that with me as well.
     
    #1280

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