UFC 210 - DC vs AJ 2 - Buffalo

[Sham5916910]

isnt cormier a great live bet if he gets out of round one, unhurt, and at even or plus money

Exactly this. Could get a great line on DC. I will be on the exchange and hope the public aren't aware DC is likely to take over even if he has a rough first round. You could always play Rumble r1 so you don't potentially miss out.

 

[Officer_Brown]

hmm... you might be right

are you on Gillespie too?

Pretty much all elite fight cappers are on Gillespie. Smart money is on him. Public wouldn't know. Keep this secret in tight circle

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

hmm... you might be right

are you on Gillespie too?

I'm not sure, I haven't done my research yet but I do think Hollbrook is a little underrated. I think Line will be fairly tight when released but the money will come in on Gillespie because everyone thinks Hollbrook sucks. Gillespie can for sure get TD's but Hollbrook has a decent guard and is always looking for subs, he basically beat Matthews off his back. I might actually lean towards Hollbrook but I need to look into it more.

 

[bunt]

Charles Oliviera vs Will Brooks to NOT go the distance @ 2.00+

Had to put some units on this.
Charles has like 2 out of 20 something fights and hasn't seems decision since jeremy stephens IRRC.

Will Brooks will either hurt his frail chin with punches on route to a TKO, or Oliveria will find his range with his Muay Thai, hurt him with something then catch a neck in the sramble.

Very, very surprised if this goes to the judges

 

[Jamah]

Pretty much all elite fight cappers are on Gillespie. Smart money is on him. Public wouldn't know. Keep this secret in tight circle

I'm on Gillespie since the fight was announced

 

[Jamah]

I'm not sure, I haven't done my research yet but I do think Hollbrook is a little underrated. I think Line will be fairly tight when released but the money will come in on Gillespie because everyone thinks Hollbrook sucks. Gillespie can for sure get TD's but Hollbrook has a decent guard and is always looking for subs, he basically beat Matthews off his back. I might actually lean towards Hollbrook but I need to look into it more.

He doesn't need to take Holbrook down to win the fight, his stand up is better , and he also has great cardio

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Pretty much all elite fight cappers are on Gillespie. Smart money is on him. Public wouldn't know. Keep this secret in tight circle

The betting public will know. Plus the general consensus is that Hollbrook is a bum, maybe he earned some respect with his W over Matthews but I don't think he'll be getting much love. GG is billed as some GOAT wrestler, plus he's undefeated, casual bettors will love that.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

He doesn't need to take Holbrook down to win the fight, his stand up is better , and he also has great cardio

Not sure I agree his stand up is better but he may have the cardio. Things could get interesting on the ground, Hollbrook is tricky.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Elite breakdown but you deny the fact that Cormier is fading pretty badly. Look at his recent fights? Gus knocked him down, Rumble knocked him down and cabo Anderson hurt him. This streak just screams to continue. Plus all the injuries and fox jobs. On the other hand Rumble is improving. His TDD is probably much better than it was before their first fight. Didn't Cormier say he wants to stand and bang with Rumble to prove a point?

I acknowledged that the gap may have tightened but I still have to favour DC, like I said they are essentially the same fighters. Cormier may face adversity but he finds a way to win. When Rumble faces adversity he quits and that's a fact.

 

[Officer_Brown]

I'm not sure, I haven't done my research yet but I do think Hollbrook is a little underrated. I think Line will be fairly tight when released but the money will come in on Gillespie because everyone thinks Hollbrook sucks. Gillespie can for sure get TD's but Hollbrook has a decent guard and is always looking for subs, he basically beat Matthews off his back. I might actually lean towards Hollbrook but I need to look into it more.

Yes I get your point. I was actually the only one big on Holbrook when he fought Matthews. (said everyone that the line is OFF but I was boo'd) Also before that I stated publicly that Holbrook would beat Sage. (Holbrook was like 4:1 dog) In hindsight I was right (sucks that the fight didn't happen). Holbrook beats those young inexperienced guys who have holes in their game. Gillespie is a lifelong wrestler and technical guy. He is not the type of guy Holbrook has good chance against.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Yes I get your point. I was actually the only one big on Holbrook when he fought Matthews. (said everyone that the line is OFF but I was boo'd) Also before that I stated publicly that Holbrook would beat Sage. (Holbrook was like 4:1 dog) In hindsight I was right (sucks that the fight didn't happen). Holbrook beats those young inexperienced guys who have holes in their game. Gillespie is a lifelong wrestler and technical guy. He is not the type of guy Holbrook has good chance against.

GG's wrestling is obviously very impressive but he hasn't been on the ground with anyone like Hollbrook before. Franca is a plank of wood on the ground and he had no chance in that fight after he gassed. Hollbrook welcomes the TD's, he doesn't mind being on his back, he can win the fight from there. Hollbrook has the size, experience and more well rounded skill set. Like I said I need to do deeper research but I do lean Hollbrook, he's underrated.

 

[t6p]

GG's wrestling is obviously very impressive but he hasn't been on the ground with anyone like Hollbrook before. Franca is a plank of wood on the ground and he had no chance in that fight after he gassed. Hollbrook welcomes the TD's, he doesn't mind being on his back, he can win the fight from there. Hollbrook has the size, experience and more well rounded skill set. Like I said I need to do deeper research but I do lean Hollbrook, he's underrated.

Odds aren't out yet on the fight as far as I know, but you favor Holbrook to win outright? If so, you're probably going to get a great price.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Odds aren't out yet on the fight as far as I know, but you favor Holbrook to win outright? If so, you're probably going to get a great price.

I do expect him to be the underdog but not a big one. Money will come in on GG, Hollbrook gets no love.

 

[Sham5916910]

Holbrook clearly lost to Nijem terrible decision. I can see why people would bet Holbrook in this fight, but GG is a life long wrestler with heavy top control, i can't see Holbrook's let's search for a leg having much joy here. Holbrook has no tdd GG could hit td's and stand back up. I also favour him standing he showed a nice 1-2 against the Brazilian, while Holbrook has shown no stand up arsenal.

 

[Oblivian]

Holbrook is great at making the judges think that he's actually attempting submissions and not just fishing for subs without having any sort of position. He's the perfect type of fighter for the new rule set.

 

[Stunna77]

It's been a while since I browsed Sherdog (blame the trolls) but I have to say I'm extremely impressed with @Officer_Brown's capping. He was one of my clients back in 2016 so it's great to see him take what he learned from me and really come into his own as a fellow MMA Gambling Expert.

Betting $300 on every fight regardless of odds, value and confidence is something I try to teach all of my clients.

LMFAO....dead..

 

[DevilsPt2]

Not sure I agree his stand up is better but he may have the cardio. Things could get interesting on the ground, Hollbrook is tricky.

Some notes i took:

HOLBROOK IS AMATUER IN STANDUP, FIRST PUNCH IN SILVA FIGHT IS HILARIOUS
LOOKS SCARED STRIKING, KEEPS HANDS HIGH, CLASPED TO HEAD, SEEMS JUMPY, ANXIOUS
HOLBROOKS ONE ADVANTAGE MAY BE BJJ

Gillespie strong use of jab, uses feints, combnations, mixes his timing, pretty good on the counter, reads, thinks and sets up his opponent. Finds or makes openings but very little power. His bread a butter is positional grappling but his subs and GnP are pretty bad. Check out his GnP against Mariscal from back mount, it was pathetic.

Will actually post some full breakdowns before weigh ins since I'm almost done.

Oh and I'm probably switching to Cormier, I lked Rumble originally but rly analyzing DC has shown me how smart and determined he is.

 

[lawmills2006]

Elite breakdown but you deny the fact that Cormier is fading pretty badly. Look at his recent fights? Gus knocked him down, Rumble knocked him down and cabo Anderson hurt him. This streak just screams to continue. Plus all the injuries and fox jobs. On the other hand Rumble is improving. His TDD is probably much better than it was before their first fight. Didn't Cormier say he wants to stand and bang with Rumble to prove a point?

Rumble knocks a lot of people down......

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Cormier has to stand with Rumble to make Rumble respect his striking so it'll open up his wrestling.

MMA 101?

I need to add quitters/gassers to the Betting Commandments cuz those characteristics make for sporadic performances.

 

[P4p Islam]

You know I'd never do that. Someone told me you bet on Brandon Thatch vs Niko Price at -200 like it was a bad thing, but I actually bet 4 units on him myself. If it wasn't for bad judging he would have won easily.

Lol whose gimmick is this?