UFC 210 - DC vs AJ 2 - Buffalo

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Smh Bovada is trash can y'all recommend me some betting sites? They don't even have full card odds out until day of the event.
 
Brooks Olive:

Bet Olive at big dog odds because even if you are picking Brooks to win, we all agree these odds are off. No way should he be THIS favored.

I'm on the o2.5 too which I loved but now like a bit less if Brooks says he wants to stand with Olive. But I think it sill has some value. Brooks isn't a finisher standing, or on the mat. So if he opts to stand this could be a boring sparring contest.

Which probably means Brooks by random haymaker in rd 1 LOL.
 
I've always found Do Bronx to be a flake as well, fwiw.
 
BluntTrauma21 said:
I've always found Do Bronx to be a flake as well, fwiw.
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Oh he's a bit of a flake. Which is why Brooks -200 probably makes sense. But -400? No way. Olive has paths to victory. His grappling vs Pettis was actually impressive to me. And Brooks striking is predictable and average at best.
 
mkess101 said:
Oh he's a bit of a flake. Which is why Brooks -200 probably makes sense. But -400? No way. Olive has paths to victory. His grappling vs Pettis was actually impressive to me. And Brooks striking is predictable and average at best.
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Yeah I should've clarified, that was just a general comment that's always annoyed me about him, not that I think he's not worth a bet b/c of it (although I do put some stock into it obv). I'm actually on board with you guys on Oliveira having the value here. I'm not sure what to think of Brooks atm, definitely not touching him at -400 against a guy who has a clear path to victory.
 
I'm pretty sure if you run Oliveira's win % is beating his implied probabilities. He's normally losing the fights he's the underdog in and supposed to lose. The exception would be the Swanson fight. It's hard to call him a flake based on that. Losses to Lamas, Pettis, Holloway, Edgar, Swanson, Cerrone, and Jim Miller aren't bad losses at all.
 
Geeeez!!

Cote -175
Alves +155

I know that Tiago how's it been the sharpest man for a few years, but this fight has to be much closer than near 2 to 1 odds for Patrick Cotè. Historically Pitbull has had excellent takedown defense and this will likely come down to a three round kick boxing match. Traditionally what has given Tihago problems is blanketing wrasslers while what has given PC problems is wrasslers and strikers who can negate his takedowns. I'm putting a couple units on Alves here as I believe this should be -110 each and expect money to come in on Alves as the fight draws closer.. Not only is Thiago the younger man, but he is moving back up to his natural welterweight and his striking is slightly better than Patrick's.
 
Man is it weird that I wanna say Jenel Lausa has potential to be the best Filipino fighter in the UFC? His boxing is pretty legit by UFC standards alone.

He's pretty raw plus he's athletic.

Man he really needs to find a good camp like Tiger MT and put in some hours on the wrestling mat and some hours in a gi and he'd be a top flyweight.

Once he does that, I think his striking is going to shine to its full potential. If he manages to get some favorable match ups I think it'll be another 3-4 years to see him at the top if he's still around of course.

But you know the UFC, they'll probably bury him and get him cut before that ever happens.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
Geeeez!!

Cote -175
Alves +155

I know that Tiago how's it been the sharpest man for a few years, but this fight has to be much closer than near 2 to 1 odds for Patrick Cotè. Historically Pitbull has had excellent takedown defense and this will likely come down to a three round kick boxing match. Traditionally what has given Tihago problems is blanketing wrasslers while what has given PC problems is wrasslers and strikers who can negate his takedowns. I'm putting a couple units on Alves here as I believe this should be -110 each and expect money to come in on Alves as the fight draws closer.. Not only is Thiago the younger man, but he is moving back up to his natural welterweight and his striking is slightly better than Patrick's.
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Similar thoughts, hit Alves for 1u at those odds.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
Geeeez!!

Cote -175
Alves +155

I know that Tiago how's it been the sharpest man for a few years, but this fight has to be much closer than near 2 to 1 odds for Patrick Cotè. Historically Pitbull has had excellent takedown defense and this will likely come down to a three round kick boxing match. Traditionally what has given Tihago problems is blanketing wrasslers while what has given PC problems is wrasslers and strikers who can negate his takedowns. I'm putting a couple units on Alves here as I believe this should be -110 each and expect money to come in on Alves as the fight draws closer.. Not only is Thiago the younger man, but he is moving back up to his natural welterweight and his striking is slightly better than Patrick's.
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I'm with you. I like Alves a lot here to be honest. Alves dec is going to get hammered by me at what I assume will be at least +300, probably even better on opener
 
I really like Mousasi @1.80. Def can outstrike Weidman and has better cardio. Weidman has path to victory for sure, but i think Mous knows it better than us and he is going to be well prepared. His expirience also a big advantage, he has triple as Weidman`s fights. I really want to see some other opinions :)

Also like very much the over for Brooks/Olives fight but here in Europe, we still dont have lines fo it.
 
Oblivian said:
I'm pretty sure if you run Oliveira's win % is beating his implied probabilities. He's normally losing the fights he's the underdog in and supposed to lose. The exception would be the Swanson fight. It's hard to call him a flake based on that. Losses to Lamas, Pettis, Holloway, Edgar, Swanson, Cerrone, and Jim Miller aren't bad losses at all.
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Not bad losses at all, just concerning he got finished in 6/7 including the "esophagus injury" to Holloway where it looked like he was dying, but ended up not really being anything at all iirc..
 
Oblivian said:
I'm pretty sure if you run Oliveira's win % is beating his implied probabilities. He's normally losing the fights he's the underdog in and supposed to lose. The exception would be the Swanson fight. It's hard to call him a flake based on that. Losses to Lamas, Pettis, Holloway, Edgar, Swanson, Cerrone, and Jim Miller aren't bad losses at all.
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For me it isn't that he loses, but rather how he loses. I don't know, just something about him has always been flaky to me. Like he's not willing to dig deep and really fight for your money if the going gets tough ... I think that he mentally checked out in the cub Swanson fight and there were a couple of others that I was impressed with.

What's more, you never know really what you're going to get with him and he often fights apathetic at times. For instance, his fight with Andy Ogle was way too close for me. I can't remember exactly, but I do know that Andy was having a lot of success early and could potentially have been up two rounds to zero before Charles got the stoppage.

I'm not saying he's a shitty fighter, but just that I have my reservations about his toughness and durability.
 
Stunna77 said:
Not bad losses at all, just concerning he got finished in 6/7 including the "esophagus injury" to Holloway where it looked like he was dying, but ended up not really being anything at all iirc..
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And when he got hit by Swanson and then like three seconds later went down like he was shot by a fucking sniper was just bizarre. LOL maybe I'm not being fair but it's just a gut feeling that he is a bit of a front runner ..
 
MMA Goodfella said:
And when he got hit by Swanson and then like three seconds later went down like he was shot by a fucking sniper was just bizarre. LOL maybe I'm not being fair but it's just a gut feeling that he is a bit of a front runner ..
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Haha fuck I totally forgot about that one. Yeah he definitely prefers being the hammer and seems to get pounded in flush when he's the nail lol
 
ElChapoInHisPrime said:
Smh Bovada is trash can y'all recommend me some betting sites? They don't even have full card odds out until day of the event.
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I love Bookmaker and 5Dimes for U.S. Players. Bookmaker used to be my favorite because they would have more live betting opportunities but now they rarely even open it which is fucking shit. 5Dimes has more lines, they come out before anyone and they are better than anyone else's when they close. What's more 5D has more exotic odds and opportunities. Both of them have excellent pay out systems and are extremely reputable.

One more thing to add is that 5D let's players bet exotic parlays. Four instance, you could bet Anthony Pettis by decision + Matt brown by KO whereas bookmaker only let's bettor parlay money lines and over/under.
 
Thiago alves is done guys. It's post usada era. I won't lay anything on him.
 
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