UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas | Page 71

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 19, 2017.

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  1. Stunna77 Green Belt

    Stunna77
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    I think what Sham is trying to say is, Khabib may very well lay on top of Ferg for a bit, but there will be more points in the fight where Ferg is gonna get his smash on..
     
    #1401
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  2. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    I don't give a shit that is was 48-47. It was a clear as day 49-46 IMO 4 rounds to one and in every round besides round 1 Ferg dished out a lot of punishment. Check the stats he landed almost 50 sig strikes every round bar r1. Ferg's victory was much more impressive to me. You don't think so and fair enough that's your opinion.

    The new scoring criteria is damage first and foremost. So Ferg being someone who delivers lots of damage is critical here. Even if the new rules are not in place, we having seen the judges slide away from awarding fights to people who do little to no damage even if they have a lot of top control. Magny/Hendricks and Nelson/BB spring to mind as two of the more obvious examples in recent times. BB stole that fight with 30 seconds of offence standing at the end of r3, and Magny won by throwing up submission attempts.
     
    #1402
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  3. raketmannen Green Belt

    raketmannen
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    No I'm informing you of a good line
     
    #1403
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  4. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    LEMONZEST
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    This isn't relevant. The important thing pre-UFC is to keep having wins. For example, the UFC is more likely to sign someone that is 8-0 than someone who is 6-2 but fought tougher competition.

    As bettors we guffaw at can crushers but can crushing is exactly what you should do en route to the UFC from a fighter management POV.

    Perfect example is Khabib, he clearly can crushed for a few years but his glowing 24-0 record turns heads now. Most people aren't looking back to see WHO he fought they just look at the record. 24-0 is significantly more prestigious than 22-2, even if the 2 losses were high level opponents.
     
    #1404
  5. AffectEffect Orange Belt

    AffectEffect
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    Sham would never acknowledge both guys chances like that. :p
     
    #1405
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  6. AffectEffect Orange Belt

    AffectEffect
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    Si si, good advice. Just an inside joke with some dudes in here I've known for over a decade. I once (foolishly) had wonderboy sub to win $115k, so I have PTSD when I see those words.
     
    #1406
  7. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    LEMONZEST
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    Tybura/KLB

    I will start by saying I am high on Tybura. I like his style and he shows up to fight. I don't usually bet based on stats but this seems to tell a pretty clear story.

    Also bear in mind Tybura recently lost a decision to Timothy Johnson who also brought a wrestling heavy game plan. Either Tybura drastically improves his wrestling or he is going to lose another decision to KLB.

    209.jpg
     
    #1407
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  8. raketmannen Green Belt

    raketmannen
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    Oh okay,I thought you were trying to be condescending in some way
     
    #1408
  9. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
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    we're still yet to have a long odds draw since the new rules - i thought hendricks/lombard looked promising, any potentials on this card?
     
    #1409
  10. HeDucking Im so Groovy

    HeDucking
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    Thats one misleading chart.
     
    #1410
  11. Joseph Budden #GamblingTerrorist #BombTheLines #HijadTheBookies

    Joseph Budden
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    Wb vs Woodley for the back to back draw

    Seriously. Only 4 months apart, who's to say this doesn't look very, very similar
     
    #1411
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  12. Stunna77 Green Belt

    Stunna77
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    If nothing else it speaks to the level of competetion he has faced and was preparing for. This is a big step up for him. To say it is irrelevant is pretty shortsighted, imo.
     
    #1412
  13. onC Orange Belt

    onC
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    Teymur up to +270
     
    #1413
  14. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Sham5916910
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    I acknowledge it's probably a 50/50 fight. I acknowledge Kebab's path to victory.
     
    #1414
  15. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    Anyone want to sig bet on Rashad/Kelly?
     
    #1415
  16. Stunna77 Green Belt

    Stunna77
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    Sure, Ill take Rashad ;)
     
    #1416
  17. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    Haha I'm waiting for a Kelly backer to step up
     
    #1417
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  18. HeDucking Im so Groovy

    HeDucking
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    Kelly backers? <{vega}>
     
    #1418
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  19. Joseph Budden #GamblingTerrorist #BombTheLines #HijadTheBookies

    Joseph Budden
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    Thoughts on tape watch so far:

    Kelly vs Rashad -- Yeah my early lean is spot on. Anyone backing Rashad at this price is ludicrous. For a guy who was heavily reliant on his athleticism hes at a point you can't really do that anymore, he looks like shit in his last two fights in literally every way, he looks tentative. Kelly is once again a very solid dog when you can expect him to be tenacious, hes not going to be overmatched in the clinch, his output will be higher. Also like the over.

    Teymur vs Lando -- Teymur is so one sided from his left, but -345 for Lando who is still very, very unproven? No fucking chance. Have no choice to bet anything but Teymur small here. Line is way off now.

    Tybura vs Henrique -- I like Tybura a lot here, but I need him to get to like -130 I think. Henrique is so green and so reliant on the td, but Tybura at the bare minimum is going to make him work hard for the td and even to control from top if it gets there. Henrique dec would've been interesting at like +500 for potential hugging, but Tybura is the right side.
     
    #1419
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  20. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    So you'll take me up on the kelly rashad sig bet?
     
    #1420
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