UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas

[Orion]

Fans want blood, won nationals in wrestling at 184 pounds, we're going to make him quit, put the pressure on, he only prepares for 2 rounds, I can go 5, I've seen him quit and cry in a sambo match, I will hit him in the stomach so hard, I have 20 years in grappling, I'm having fun, I keep my elbows sharp, I have long arms, my darce, it's just like chess for me, if he hurts me, I'll hurt him twice as bad, I work my ass off

Kind of interesting that he mentioned his hand size, his blue collar background, and the interviewer talking about how his grip strength stood out when they shook hands.

Could be bullshit but I don't know if these conclusive statements about Khabib being the stronger guy is true. Yeah Khabib is obviously a brute, but who is to say Tony isn't strong as shit too? He's been in there out grappling jacked/juiced dudes like Tibau and Trujillo just as much as Khabib has (and better against Tibau)...and while there's a lot of technique in there, he definitely didn't get outmuscled. I actually think Tony has deceptive strength ala Jon Jones/Silva due to his length and leverage compared to the rest of the division.

 

[iGnP]

Kind of interesting that he mentioned his hand size, his blue collar background, and the interviewer talking about how his grip strength stood out when they shook hands.

Could be bullshit but I don't know if these conclusive statements about Khabib being the stronger guy is true. Yeah Khabib is obviously a brute, but who is to say Tony isn't strong as shit too? He's been in there out grappling jacked/juiced dudes like Tibau and Trujillo just as much as Khabib has (and better against Tibau)...and while there's a lot of technique in there, he definitely didn't get outmuscled. I actually think Tony has deceptive strength ala Jon Jones/Silva due to his length and leverage compared to the rest of the division.

I don't think it's a stretch at all to think Tony is strong as fuck

 

[mkess101]

Agree^^^^

He's that wiry strong guy I'd think I was gonna out muscle at grappling tourneys that left me questioning my manhood LOL.

I'm not kidding, the closer the fight gets the more confident I am in Ferg. I think I'm about as confident as I could possibly be about a +160 dog. I'm to the point where I won't be shocked if he makes it look easy. I could be delusional but I just keep finding reasons that I think he wins.

 

[Orion]

Also interesting is his repeated mention of using body shots to slow Khabib down....

Cant wait for this fight to see how this plays out

 

[SBJJ]

Agree^^^^

He's that wiry strong guy I'd think I was gonna out muscle at grappling tourneys that left me questioning my manhood LOL.

I'm not kidding, the closer the fight gets the more confident I am in Ferg. I think I'm about as confident as I could possibly be about a +160 dog. I'm to the point where I won't be shocked if he makes it look easy. I could be delusional but I just keep finding reasons that I think he wins.

Such an interesting fight. Because both have distinct advantages.

 

[iGnP]

I'm realllllly feeling the Ferg NSC now. I think I may have to go HAM on that

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I'm realllllly feeling the Ferg NSC now. I think I may have to go HAM on that

Same here. Like 7u deep HAM.

 

[mkess101]

I'm realllllly feeling the Ferg NSC now. I think I may have to go HAM on that

Kinda pissed I didn't bet it more when it was -110. It's -170 now.

That said, I am so, so , SO damn deep on NOT Khabib itd at -265. I freaking KNEW that price was way off. Some of what I put on it I was sort of planning to freeroll if the line moved like I thought. And boy did it. -485 now. But I'm so damn confident in the line I kinda just want to let it all ride.

 

[TimCoreCombat]

Any strong leans?

I'm looking for some parlay fodder regardless of price. I just don't want to lay juice on wonderbot but want to bet him heavy.

 

[iGnP]

Kinda pissed I didn't bet it more when it was -110. It's -170 now.

That said, I am so, so , SO damn deep on NOT Khabib itd at -265. I freaking KNEW that price was way off. Some of what I put on it I was sort of planning to freeroll if the line moved like I thought. And boy did it. -485 now. But I'm so damn confident in the line I kinda just want to let it all ride.

I'm gonna make a small bet on the NSC line right now and hope Khabib money comes in. I'd hate myself if that line went to -200 and I missed out

 

[SBJJ]

I really don't think Ferg can keep it standing. I think it comes down to if he can cosistantly get up. If he can I think he tires Khab from working those takedowns. While Khab has shown improved cardio I see know way he keeps it up if Ferguson keeps popping up.

Could see a scenario where a tired Khabib is already up 3-0 though

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Odds on Mirsad will be unplayable so will he get the finish or get a UD is the real question.

Elkins can take a good beating and there's evidence that he may be able to go 3 when Paul Redmond is able to survive.

Gonna assume Lando odds will be inflated as well.

Eyeing Tybur at what should be close odds and the rest will be competitive I believe. Shad will be in the higher -100s and I may like the over rather and maybe even a play on Kelly.

 

[iGnP]

I really don't think Ferg can keep it standing. I think it comes down to if he can cosistantly get up. If he can I think he tires Khab from working those takedowns. While Khab has shown improved cardio I see know way he keeps it up if Ferguson keeps popping up.

Could see a scenario where a tired Khabib is already up 3-0 though

Ferg is a pretty accomplished wrestler himself. Having a 6 inch reach advantage is also a plus seeing as Khabib is gonna have to shoot from farther out

 

[mkess101]

Ferg is a pretty accomplished wrestler himself. Having a 6 inch reach advantage is also a plus seeing as Khabib is gonna have to shoot from farther out

Yep. Add in that Ferg will threaten with that front headlock to D'arce. If you watch Khabib/RDA you see Khabib's neck vulnerable multiple times . RDA tried one guillotine but didn't threaten after that. Ferg uses those freaky long arms to secure chokes other guys can't.

 

[iGnP]

Yep. Add in that Ferg will threaten with that front headlock to D'arce. If you watch Khabib/RDA you see Khabib's neck vulnerable multiple times . RDA tried one guillotine but didn't threaten after that. Ferg uses those freaky long arms to secure chokes other guys can't.

I think an accomplished grappler can see that coming and prepare well for it, at least when he's fresh, seeing as Tony has had multiple finishes w/ it. If Khabib's gassing or hurt and goes for a sloppy shot, very possible. Early in the fight, not so much imo.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Odds on Mirsad will be unplayable so will he get the finish or get a UD is the real question.

Elkins can take a good beating and there's evidence that he may be able to go 3 when Paul Redmond is able to survive.

Gonna assume Lando odds will be inflated as well.

Eyeing Tybur at what should be close odds and the rest will be competitive I believe. Shad will be in the higher -100s and I may like the over rather and maybe even a play on Kelly.

Lando is 1.3

 

[mkess101]

I think an accomplished grappler can see that coming and prepare well for it, at least when he's fresh, seeing as Tony has had multiple finishes w/ it. If Khabib's gassing or hurt and goes for a sloppy shot, very possible. Early in the fight, not so much imo.

No my point was more how it could affect Khabib's TD attempts early on. I'd be surprised if Tony locks in a deep choke on a fresh, unhurt Khabib. BUT it could lead to Khabib bailing on TD attempts when Ferg threatens with it.

 

[iGnP]

No my point was more how it could affect Khabib's TD attempts early on. I'd be surprised if Tony locks in a deep choke on a fresh, unhurt Khabib. BUT it could lead to Khabib bailing on TD attempts when Ferg threatens with it.

Ah ok. I dont really know much about grappling to comment

 

[LEMONZEST]

I really don't think Ferg can keep it standing. I think it comes down to if he can cosistantly get up. If he can I think he tires Khab from working those takedowns. While Khab has shown improved cardio I see know way he keeps it up if Ferguson keeps popping up.

Could see a scenario where a tired Khabib is already up 3-0 though

Exactly. I think Khabib wins a somewhat close decision. But only close cuz judges are unpredictable. We will all see a clear Khabib UD

 

[mkess101]

Ah ok. I dont really know much about grappling to comment

It will be something to watch for. Khabib can also counter it by getting in deep on Tony's hips quickly, but like you said Tony's reach comes into play there too.