UFC 209 - Twood vs Wonderboy II - Vegas (part 2) | Page 43

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 1, 2017.

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  1. Davem10 Purple Belt

    Davem10
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    Just rewatched Overeem vs Stipe

    Soon as Reem gets hit clean everything just fails, his defense goes missing, he backs up against the cage, his striking becomes single wild pot shots

    Its a difficult fight to pick as its heavyweights

    But betting on Reem is insanity knowing how his chin is and when he gets clipped he either goes down or loses 50% of his fighting ability

    I will probably give it a pass but if i was betting id be on Hunt,
     
    #841
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  2. Rebel_LioN Black Belt

    Rebel_LioN
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    My thoughts on WB is pretty simple. He fights more patient and works his volume like how the first fight went. I said that it was just going to be a continuation of round 6 and what's funny I heard the exact same thoughts from Duke Rufus himself yesterday, well except of course he picked his guy.

    I said in the first matchup that people are seriously overestimating WB and underestimating Woodley at the price of -200. How could anyone be proud of a bet like that?

    Anyways it's really up to Woodley if he wants to be a hero and put himself in the line of fire and go for the kill because he can DEFINITELY catch WB again. Anyone with their hands down like that is open for the finish just like Conor or Anderson is on any given night, but these guys are masters at their craft.

    However after seeing the fight unfold, from my eyes WB made the necessary adjustments in the free flowing fight that I believe will give him a better idea of Tyron's danger zones. I think Tyron believes he can win this fight which is 100% true especially since he's got the wrestling in his back pockets but I don't think he'll be able to smother a moving target like WB. The distance that WB fights at won't allow Woodley to shoot that power double because he's going to have to take 1 extra step to achieve that goal and that 1 extra step is ample time for WB to move lateral or hit a counter shot. That's the reason why Woodley didn't wrestle in the first fight it's because he COULDN'T not because he WOULDN'T. That first round he caught a naked leg kick and WB isn't going to make that mistake again knowing Woodley is super savvy to it and is a sniper with his right hand.

    Woodley is at a disadvantage if he doesn't catch that homerun slugger because WB is going to do what Rory did to him and that's to be weary of his right hand bomb.

    I hear in interviews that Woodley is working on his left hook which is super smart I'll be looking out for that because I think it's going to allow him to manipulate the space and catch WB with his hands down if he truly understands how to use it.

    My bet was on Wood last time out purely on value but tonight it's on WB but I can see Woodley having a couple key techniques that he can use to win, I just don't think he will though IMO.

    I think next week's card I've got more solid picks. Have fun everyone we deserve it after that rollercoaster anxiety attack fallout.
     
    #842
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  3. HeDucking Im so Groovy

    HeDucking
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    I agree with how Overreem reacts to punches but Hunt isnt Stipe, not even close.

    Watch Reem vs Nelson or JDS and see the type of gameplan Overreem is going to employ, he's not going to get hit if he's not there to be hit. With that said, a gust of wind could KO him at this point.


    Also Hunt has become a plodding fighter and even his combinations have started to disappear, he's turning into a Nelson and we see what happened to Nelson, once everyone figured out he's just an overhand, he became a gatekeeper to the top 10 at best.
     
    #843
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2017
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  4. Davem10 Purple Belt

    Davem10
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    Yeah maybe

    Thats why i will pass on it

    But id never bet on overeem in this fight, youre essentially gambling that hunt cant connect one good shot in 15 minutes
     
    #844
  5. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    i normally cant stomach a bet on Overeem against a big puncher but Hunt looks so old in those training videos. IDK how he can connect w Overeem unless Overeem is extremely reckless
     
    #845
  6. HeDucking Im so Groovy

    HeDucking
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    Its kinda funny, I bet on Woodley cause I said WB wont be perfect for 25 minutes, he's gonna get ht with the big shot but Im betting Overreem decision because I think he can be perfect for 15 minutes with his utter glass chin and Hunts devastating power. Luckily age, skill, IQ are all on Reem's side. Lemme get that 10u.
     
    #846
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  7. HeDucking Im so Groovy

    HeDucking
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    So a low level WMMA bout is above Hunt/Reem? {<doc}{<jordan}


     
    #847
  8. Davem10 Purple Belt

    Davem10
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    Now ive just watched Thompson vs Woodley

    Id bet on Woodley for this rematch

    Heres what i took away from that fight

    Thompson had absolutely no answer for the wrestling of Woodley in round 1 he just got busted up. So this is an adjustment Woodley can make, more aggressive with the wrestling, Thompson looks very poor on his back so exploiting this is a massive thing he can do

    Woodley landed a couple of great power kicks, he can add more of them and they will definitely slow Thompson down

    Woodley hurt Thompson multiple times on the feet, Thompson didnt hurt Woodley to any noticeable degree

    2 rounds Woodley dominated, 2 rounds were close rounds with an edge to wonderboy

    The fifth round i discount for study purposes as Woodley had obviously blew his arms out with his prolonged guillotine attempt and had nothing left so was just putting on an act that he was in some way still dangerous so Thompson wouldnt go in for the kill

    So forgetting the fifth round, Woodley had way more success in the fight and has more tools to win the fight. All Thompson has is his striking, and while its a great tool, he never hurt Woodley with it. I dont see what Thompson can do differently, he is just going to come out again and strike like last time. Woodley on the other hand can employ a heavier wrestling based stratergy and hammer more of those destructive leg kicks at Thompson while still having his heavy punches that were so close to ending Thompsons night last time. If he didnt go for the guillotine he probably could have finished Thompson with strikes imo as he was badly badly hurt

    Probably throw some money on Woodley
     
    #848
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  9. Davem10 Purple Belt

    Davem10
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    He can rush him with big shots

    Overeem will panic and either get hit or back up into the cage and then get hit

    Mark can move quick when he wants to
     
    #849
  10. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

    Cptn1NSAN0
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    With you on both bro. In a nutshell, Hunt has gone legitimately insane and as elite as WB is, I feel great about fading a dude whose main coach is his dad in 2017
     
    #850
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  11. iGnP Red Belt

    iGnP
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    He has an early window to do it but I think Overeem's athleticism, reach advantage, and recent strategies of going in there and avoiding damage as much as possible mitigate that threat to a large degree. Sure, Hunt will turn his lights out if he lands, but IDK, i'd need better odds on Hunt TKO to consider a bet on that
     
    #851
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  12. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

    Cptn1NSAN0
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    I like where you're coming from but the wrestling aspect isn't quite that simple. Woodley didn't just abandon it, he didn't find any more openings to employ it. WB never threw another naked leg kick again. This doesn't mean that Woodley can't find or create more opportunities to use his wrestling in this rematch but it isn't quite as simple as him just giving up on them.
     
    #852
  13. Cptn1NSAN0 shows no mercy

    Cptn1NSAN0
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    Pretty ridiculous, they should've put Mirsad in there. Fight has potential to be a grind fest but I'd rather take that over a low level WMMA slopfest. So many better ways they could've gone about this.

    ABC is very hot though, so we have that
     
    #853
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  14. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    man, oh man. i really hope the dogs are backing tonight.

    i'm on 10 dogs and 1 favorite (reem).
    (sidenote: i actually have sanders and cooper at -110, but they were the "dog" at the time)

    mentally preparing myself to lose a lot of bets tonight, haha.
     
    #854
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  15. Davem10 Purple Belt

    Davem10
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    What i dont understand and maybe you can explain

    When a fighter is at a reach and height disadvantage why do they allow themselves to be backed up like Woodley kept doing in the first fight, Woodley kept backing up, thereby keeping the range the same, a range where he cant land shots. Why would he do that, if wonderboy wants to come forward why not allow him to and also come forward, if Woodley did that he would be immediately in striking range and takedown range. Instead he backs up maintaining a range where he cant land anything without explosion yet wonderboy can hit him

    Also why do you say there were no other openings? Thompson adopts a bladed stance with the lead leg forward, thats a wrestlers dream is it not ? Chad Mendes vs Connor is a prime example, if Woodley is just aggressive and committed to his shots and not backing up all the time the takedowns should be there for him to get by himself, without having to rely on catching a kick

    Woodley has more tools to win this fight

    Im just hesitant because he doesnt seem to learn, he got backed up by Mcdonald to his detriment, then allowed it to happen again vs Thompson. Saying that, he will have smart people around him who will have told him this and now this is a repeat match up so the adjustments should certainly have been made
     
    #855
  16. raketmannen Blue Belt

    raketmannen
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    Also people seem to forget that Woodley simply dont wrestle anymore. In his last 9 fights he have completed a total of 4 takedowns, 3 against Condit and 1 from a lazy kick thrown by WB.
     
    #856
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  17. AmericanBeauty Orange Belt

    AmericanBeauty
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    He himself said that he would use his wrestling this time
     
    #857
  18. raketmannen Blue Belt

    raketmannen
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    Same here the only one I've bet as a favorite is WB. Got bets on Sanders, Godbeer and Tybura aswell but got them at + odds
     
    #858
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  19. raketmannen Blue Belt

    raketmannen
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    Action speaks louder than words but of course it's possible. Although I think Woodley don't go for that many takedowns or clinch engages for a reason, he knows that his cardio wont let him do that for 15 or 25 minutes. On a side note Cormier said he's gonna strike with Johnson, you can't always believe what fighters say they're gonna do
     
    #859
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2017
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  20. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    LEMONZEST
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    This is exactly how i feel. I love my bets but i can see it going like 2-14 or some shit.
     
    #860
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